3.30 Brighton
Filun 11/1
I think Anthony Middleton's 7 year old gelding looks a very nice price at 11/1 and I think he could take a lot of beating tomorrow. After a problem with Ulcers, Filun really came to fruition when landing a C+D event in fantastic style at the end of April last year when sauntering to victory off a mark of 48. He was clearly very well handicapped after overcoming his issues and he subsequently ran out an impressive winner when he was raised 8lb for winning on his next start at Lingfield 20 days later. Filun continued his rapid rise by landing a hat trick 8 days later, this time off a mark of 62, as he again ran out a very impressive winner over C+D. In the 3 runner event, Filun travelled extremely well before quickening up decisively in the final furlong to score by 3.5L. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd twice in August and she is now rated 11lb higher than she was when playing second fiddle to Filun.
After this, Filun was raised by 9lb and ran a very respectable 3L beaten 3rd off a mark of 71 at Salisbury at what has become his standard 12f trip. Once again, he travelled extremely powerfully into the race and just couldn't pick up when asked in the final furlong. The form of that race is strong with the winner Danvilla winning off an 8lb higher mark subsequently and he is now 12lb higher. Furthermore, the 4th Eshtyaaq ran 3 excellent 2nds on his next 3 starts and is now rated 8lb higher than that day. After this Filun was given a 1lb hike in the weights from the handicapper and he again put in another excellent performance when going down by 1L at the end of June at Epsom. He travelled in his usual ominous way and jockey Liam Keniry waited as long as he could before he played him but the winner made all that day and he just couldn't pick him up. The form of that race isn't anything of note but it was still an encouraging effort. On his last start last year he ran a shocker at Epsom and considering he was absent for a long period after I'm willing to ignore that effort.
Filun's last start came at Windsor last month after an 8 month break and I'm pretty sure he needed that reappearance run. He travelled pretty strongly until about 2f out but found absolutely nothing when asked for an effort and hopefully he'll be much sharper today. He returns to Brighton off a mark of 70 and he clearly loves it round here, with 2 very impressive victories over C+D as well as two other 3rds. Moreover, the ground should be ideal with his hat trick last summer coming on good to firm ground. Given the form of his latest C+D victory and his two subsequent placed efforts, I certainly don't think a mark of 70 is beyond him and a return to Brighton should see the best of him. He should come on an awful lot for his reappearance run and hopefully he won't need more than that to be fully race fit. Liam Keniry, who was his regular pilot last season, is engaged at Nottingham so John Fahy takes the ride for the first time and it is also his first start for the trainer. Although Middleton is winless since September, its not really a big concern for me as he was winless for 13 months prior to Filun's treble last summer. Although Fahy will have to be at his best to play him late enough, I think Filun represents excellent e/w value at 11/1 and holds a strong chance of landing this event. Current favourite Navigation Track could prove to be very well handicapped but he has an 8 month absence to overcome and Brighton's unique track may not suit him. Filun is clearly at his best around this time of the year and he'll surely trade very short in running if he's got any chance in the closing stages given the way he travels so if you are that way inclined it represents the perfect opportunity to lay off some of your liability on Betfair.
Filun 11/1
I think Anthony Middleton's 7 year old gelding looks a very nice price at 11/1 and I think he could take a lot of beating tomorrow. After a problem with Ulcers, Filun really came to fruition when landing a C+D event in fantastic style at the end of April last year when sauntering to victory off a mark of 48. He was clearly very well handicapped after overcoming his issues and he subsequently ran out an impressive winner when he was raised 8lb for winning on his next start at Lingfield 20 days later. Filun continued his rapid rise by landing a hat trick 8 days later, this time off a mark of 62, as he again ran out a very impressive winner over C+D. In the 3 runner event, Filun travelled extremely well before quickening up decisively in the final furlong to score by 3.5L. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd twice in August and she is now rated 11lb higher than she was when playing second fiddle to Filun.
After this, Filun was raised by 9lb and ran a very respectable 3L beaten 3rd off a mark of 71 at Salisbury at what has become his standard 12f trip. Once again, he travelled extremely powerfully into the race and just couldn't pick up when asked in the final furlong. The form of that race is strong with the winner Danvilla winning off an 8lb higher mark subsequently and he is now 12lb higher. Furthermore, the 4th Eshtyaaq ran 3 excellent 2nds on his next 3 starts and is now rated 8lb higher than that day. After this Filun was given a 1lb hike in the weights from the handicapper and he again put in another excellent performance when going down by 1L at the end of June at Epsom. He travelled in his usual ominous way and jockey Liam Keniry waited as long as he could before he played him but the winner made all that day and he just couldn't pick him up. The form of that race isn't anything of note but it was still an encouraging effort. On his last start last year he ran a shocker at Epsom and considering he was absent for a long period after I'm willing to ignore that effort.
Filun's last start came at Windsor last month after an 8 month break and I'm pretty sure he needed that reappearance run. He travelled pretty strongly until about 2f out but found absolutely nothing when asked for an effort and hopefully he'll be much sharper today. He returns to Brighton off a mark of 70 and he clearly loves it round here, with 2 very impressive victories over C+D as well as two other 3rds. Moreover, the ground should be ideal with his hat trick last summer coming on good to firm ground. Given the form of his latest C+D victory and his two subsequent placed efforts, I certainly don't think a mark of 70 is beyond him and a return to Brighton should see the best of him. He should come on an awful lot for his reappearance run and hopefully he won't need more than that to be fully race fit. Liam Keniry, who was his regular pilot last season, is engaged at Nottingham so John Fahy takes the ride for the first time and it is also his first start for the trainer. Although Middleton is winless since September, its not really a big concern for me as he was winless for 13 months prior to Filun's treble last summer. Although Fahy will have to be at his best to play him late enough, I think Filun represents excellent e/w value at 11/1 and holds a strong chance of landing this event. Current favourite Navigation Track could prove to be very well handicapped but he has an 8 month absence to overcome and Brighton's unique track may not suit him. Filun is clearly at his best around this time of the year and he'll surely trade very short in running if he's got any chance in the closing stages given the way he travels so if you are that way inclined it represents the perfect opportunity to lay off some of your liability on Betfair.
<beer> 
have a good one all.
