Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 20th. October 2020

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Very interesting racing at Tipperary 15.50. Captain Guinness, Aramax, Soviet Pimpernel, Unexcepted.
 
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Joe_z said:
Considering a wee dabble in 1630 Exeter
Call me Sainte is the one that appeals, would appreciate your thoughts Stick.
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Would never put anyone off a Nigel Hawke horse. This looks like the better of his two and one of the more likely ones on pedigree. I would be wary of the Tregoning newcomer as that is well bred too but the favourite has the massive benefit of experience and will be hard to beat.
 
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In terms of that 3 year old bumper, since 2015 in 3 year old bumpers there have been

51 winners from 485 runners that made their debut (10.5%)
12 winners from 159 on their second run (7.55%)
2 winners from 20 on their third run (10%)

However what is really interesting is when you look at their last time out finishing position for second time out runners.

3 from 8 won lto
5 from 14 finished second lto
1 from 19 finishing third
3 from 118 finished outside top three (1 from 20 in 4th)

To me it suggests that these races are uncompetitive and that horses finishing outside the top two last time out are probably not very good animals.
 
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NassauBoard said:
In terms of that 3 year old bumper, since 2015 in 3 year old bumpers there have been

51 winners from 485 runners that made their debut (10.5%)
12 winners from 159 on their second run (7.55%)
2 winners from 20 on their third run (10%)

However what is really interesting is when you look at their last time out finishing position for second time out runners.

3 from 8 won lto
5 from 14 finished second lto
1 from 19 finishing third
3 from 118 finished outside top three (1 from 20 in 4th)

To me it suggests that these races are uncompetitive and that horses finishing outside the top two last time out are probably not very good animals.
Click to expand...

3yo bumpers are basically a middle distance race for flat breds that were far too slow and backward to even contemplate running in flat maidens!
 
stick said:
3yo bumpers are basically a middle distance race for flat breds that were far too slow and backward to even contemplate running in flat maidens!
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do you copy and paste this every time we have one of these races? Perhaps we can get Attivo to add it in to the daily thread to remind everyone
 
Thoughts on Unexcepted today? Jumped beautifully and was eased right down over the last 3 furlongs to win easily. Looks a nice prospect. About time Willie had a really good one for JP.
 
OddDog said:
Thoughts on Unexcepted today? Jumped beautifully and was eased right down over the last 3 furlongs to win easily. Looks a nice prospect. About time Willie had a really good one for JP.
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Captain Guinness came back clinically abnormal post race and the others werent in it so race fell apart abit but no doubting he jumped beautifully and has a good cruising speed. His next start will be interesting.
 
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