2.10 Catterick Carmela Maria 16/1. Write up to come but I can't see the price lasting long at all.
Tuesday 18th December Daily Thread
- Thread starter ROTO
- Start date
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Part of the ROTO write should be that this horse hasnt been ridden to get the trip in her last two runs. I fully expect to see her ridden with retraint tomorrow. She won this race last year and is pounds better in tomorrow. Great spot ROTO and top marks for getting there first. The people of this forum are lucky to have guys like you around to help!
I second that Stick, I don't post very much (lack of knowledge) but I'm always reading and very much appreciate the time and effort guys like you, ROTO etc put in to helping the likes of me (a novice at this game) find a few winners at nice prices, just gutted I've missed the juicy price about tomorrows!
I need all the help I can get as well after putting on two antepost trebles for Cheltenham last night that both included Big Bucks - good timing on my part!
I need all the help I can get as well after putting on two antepost trebles for Cheltenham last night that both included Big Bucks - good timing on my part!
yea i echo what has been said, and galaxy is quickly establishing himself in the league with stick and roto regarding tipping. i quickly tried to back oscar whisky for the stayers hurdle but was seconds to late. i think he will be aimed at that race for sure if big buck's is not in contention.
Peddlers has been given time to come back and they will be rewarded for it. However I'm not sure whether 3m is the way to go with him. I suppose his Champion Hurdle run screamed he would improve up in trip and of course he has won a Neptune. But I thought his hurdling was very good and that he could be a big player in a Champion again..
For Wednesday
Nicky Henderson has Royal Boy entered in two races at Newbury. Interestingly he already has AP booked to ride one of his other entries in the 13.20 so maybe he will go for the 15.00, over a bit further, with Royal Boy. Timeform reckon he would have benefited from a stronger early gallop when second on his debut under rules and looks like a banker to register a maiden victory before competing in top novice events.
Just thought I would mention it now as I'll probably forget tomorrow night and then if it wins I'll have to keep quiet for fear of being castrated.
Nicky Henderson has Royal Boy entered in two races at Newbury. Interestingly he already has AP booked to ride one of his other entries in the 13.20 so maybe he will go for the 15.00, over a bit further, with Royal Boy. Timeform reckon he would have benefited from a stronger early gallop when second on his debut under rules and looks like a banker to register a maiden victory before competing in top novice events.
Just thought I would mention it now as I'll probably forget tomorrow night and then if it wins I'll have to keep quiet for fear of being castrated.
It would be most unHenderson like to see this one out again so soon Ron. Much more likely that you will see it out again over Xmas, maybe at Kempton even!
Ron do you think there is any significance in the horse being jocked up early on the race card? I ask because i would assume it would mean they intend running but given that the ground will be soft or heavy i think snake eyes will probably be a non runner.
Cheers for the kind sentiments. Lovely two winners recently Stick, particularly the lovely spot on Ukranian Star. Really is a top notch forum with some of the most knowledgeable and insightful racing enthusiasts around.
2.10 Catterick
Carmela Maria 25/1
Not at all surprised to see an influx of money and a massive drop in price for Carmela Maria who was successful in this race last year and I think she's gone to run a mighty race in her quest to land this for a second year running at a track where she seems a completely different animal. Carmela Maria came into this race last year off a 1lb lower mark off 84 a maiden after 15 attempts over hurdles but broke her duck under a very patient ride under Joe Colliver as she came from a different county to get up to win by a head on the line for the Mike Sowesby team. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Tippering going down by a neck off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Easement ran a really good race in defeat off a 7lb higher mark on his next start. Two weeks after her first success over hurdles she returned to Catterick over the same C+D off a 5lb higher mark of 90 where she ran out a very impressive winner in testing conditions to score by 7L in a slog with the front two pulling miles clear of the rest. In the Conditional Jockeys race under today's jockey Ed Linehan, Carmela Maria travelled into the race sweetly from off the pace and hit the front by about a length coming up to the final flight. She barely got off the ground as she absolutely smashed into the last hurdle but she still had some juice left in the tank as she pulled clear up the short run in. Again, the form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Phoenix Lady scoring off a 5lb higher mark on her only subsequent start. Carmela Maria was turned out unpenalised for that success, she was turned out quickly enough when disappointing as favourite at Southwell at the start of January this year (beaten 7L) but a return to her favourite venue saw her go very close off a 12lb higher mark of 102 in February of this year as she went down by 1L as she stayed onto 3rd close home.
Again under patient tactics, Ed Linehan worked Carmela Maria nicely and she looked to hold every chance going over the last but couldn't get there in time as she had to settle for minor money. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner Howizee, who probably one a shade cosily, winning 2 starts later off a 2lb higher mark impressively as well as getting beaten a head off a 19lb higher mark 3 starts later and he is 22lb higher than his success that day. Since that race, Carmela Maria has had 6 starts over hurdles and has been disappointing in all of them but resultantly her mark has fallen from 103 all the way back down to 85 and based on her course form she looks a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, her last 3 starts have seen her wear cheekpieces as opposed to her usual blinkers(which are reapplied for tomorrow's contest) and, as Stick noted, she has also been ridden far more forcefully in her last 2 starts and I definitely feel she will be given a waiting ride tomorrow. A real course specialist, her form over tomorrow's C+D reads 1-1-3 and there is no question in my mind that she is a completely different proposition around Catterick's undulating track. I definitely feel that connections have earmarked this race for quite a while and have gotten her back down to a very favourable mark for a race she was successful in last year off only a 1lb lower mark. Given that this 7 year old was a ready winner off 5lb higher mark a year ago and beaten only 1L off a 17lb higher mark, its very clear that she is a very well handicapped horse on that form and I am confident the reapplication of blinkers coupled with a return to Catterick will certainly spark a revival for this mare. Ed Linehan takes a valuable 7lb getting her racing weight down to a lovely 9-12 and she shouldn't have any problems with conditions and should relish this if it becomes a slog. With an awful lot in her favour, I'm confident Mike Sowesby's mare will bounce back from a string of poor efforts and fancy her to land this race for the 2nd year running.
Carmela Maria 25/1
Not at all surprised to see an influx of money and a massive drop in price for Carmela Maria who was successful in this race last year and I think she's gone to run a mighty race in her quest to land this for a second year running at a track where she seems a completely different animal. Carmela Maria came into this race last year off a 1lb lower mark off 84 a maiden after 15 attempts over hurdles but broke her duck under a very patient ride under Joe Colliver as she came from a different county to get up to win by a head on the line for the Mike Sowesby team. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Tippering going down by a neck off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Easement ran a really good race in defeat off a 7lb higher mark on his next start. Two weeks after her first success over hurdles she returned to Catterick over the same C+D off a 5lb higher mark of 90 where she ran out a very impressive winner in testing conditions to score by 7L in a slog with the front two pulling miles clear of the rest. In the Conditional Jockeys race under today's jockey Ed Linehan, Carmela Maria travelled into the race sweetly from off the pace and hit the front by about a length coming up to the final flight. She barely got off the ground as she absolutely smashed into the last hurdle but she still had some juice left in the tank as she pulled clear up the short run in. Again, the form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Phoenix Lady scoring off a 5lb higher mark on her only subsequent start. Carmela Maria was turned out unpenalised for that success, she was turned out quickly enough when disappointing as favourite at Southwell at the start of January this year (beaten 7L) but a return to her favourite venue saw her go very close off a 12lb higher mark of 102 in February of this year as she went down by 1L as she stayed onto 3rd close home.
Again under patient tactics, Ed Linehan worked Carmela Maria nicely and she looked to hold every chance going over the last but couldn't get there in time as she had to settle for minor money. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner Howizee, who probably one a shade cosily, winning 2 starts later off a 2lb higher mark impressively as well as getting beaten a head off a 19lb higher mark 3 starts later and he is 22lb higher than his success that day. Since that race, Carmela Maria has had 6 starts over hurdles and has been disappointing in all of them but resultantly her mark has fallen from 103 all the way back down to 85 and based on her course form she looks a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, her last 3 starts have seen her wear cheekpieces as opposed to her usual blinkers(which are reapplied for tomorrow's contest) and, as Stick noted, she has also been ridden far more forcefully in her last 2 starts and I definitely feel she will be given a waiting ride tomorrow. A real course specialist, her form over tomorrow's C+D reads 1-1-3 and there is no question in my mind that she is a completely different proposition around Catterick's undulating track. I definitely feel that connections have earmarked this race for quite a while and have gotten her back down to a very favourable mark for a race she was successful in last year off only a 1lb lower mark. Given that this 7 year old was a ready winner off 5lb higher mark a year ago and beaten only 1L off a 17lb higher mark, its very clear that she is a very well handicapped horse on that form and I am confident the reapplication of blinkers coupled with a return to Catterick will certainly spark a revival for this mare. Ed Linehan takes a valuable 7lb getting her racing weight down to a lovely 9-12 and she shouldn't have any problems with conditions and should relish this if it becomes a slog. With an awful lot in her favour, I'm confident Mike Sowesby's mare will bounce back from a string of poor efforts and fancy her to land this race for the 2nd year running.
Morning men
Ivan Boru in the bumper at catt should go very well, running at home with jessica valentine who ran a decent place lto
well thought of by connections and the yard
Lump on
stay frosty
Ivan Boru in the bumper at catt should go very well, running at home with jessica valentine who ran a decent place lto
well thought of by connections and the yard
Lump on
stay frosty