From a punting point of view, the Royal meeting does not start very well.
The best older horse in training Baaeed should start the meeting off for favourite backers in the Queen Anne Stakes but is really only of interest for people with multiples. I expect that plenty will have 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus is multiples with him as he looks pretty bomb proof in the St James’s Palace Stakes unless My Prospero improves enormously from beating The Queen’s Reach For The Moon at Sandown.
Personally I do not touch the two year old races this early in the season as pretty much all of the form is wins in minor events at lesser tracks and there are no reliable form lines, so the Coventry Stakes provides an opportunity to gauge the early pecking order.
The two best horses in the King’s Stand Stakes are probably visitors from distant shores. It is difficult to get away from the fact that Golden Pal’s two visits here have seen him beaten, in the Nunthorpe last term and in the Norfolk at this meeting in 2020. There is no way to determine the value of the form of Aussie raider Nature Strip but the record of their raiders is excellent and this guy is all speed. Of the ‘home’ team Man Of Promise has been plying his trade in Meydan but was beaten in the six furlong Al Quoz last time when favourite whilst Lazuli beat Acklam Express in the Blue Point Sprint at the same venue over five with Khaadem well behind. The Queen’s King’s Lynn won the Temple Stakes last time pipping Twilight Calls but he also might be a few pounds short of the market leaders. Arecibo, Mondammej, Existent and Winter Power (favourite) were all behind at Haydock. Tis Marvellous was down the field in the Palace House (sixth), where Khaadem won beating Existent and Saint Lawrence (third), Twilight Calls (fifth), Arecibo and Mondammej. So it seems that much of the home defence is based around a bunch of sprinters who take it in turns winning our races.
As usual, half the field for the Ascot Stakes hail from National Hunt stables making it difficult to assess as most of them have little flat form and their race fitness is based on their last appearance over obstacles. I had Evaluation picked out for this as he was bred from The Queen’s Gold Cup winner Estimate and had a 5lb penalty for a cosy win last time; however, he has been taken out. Second choice was Marshall Plan from the Gosden yard, enthusiasm tempered by him stepping up half a mile in trip and being on a career high mark.
The Wolferton used to be a Listed handicap but they had to drop the handicap status. Fortunately that has not resulted in a short priced hotpot because almost the whole field have ratings around the 109-112 mark, so the betting is wide open. Cadillac has a Group 3 win at this trip to his name and won a nine furlong Listed race last time by nearly four lengths but carries a penalty here. It is hard to make a case for Dubai Future who returned from a winter on the Arabian Peninsula to finish a very moderate fourth in the Brigadier Gerard. Majestic Dawn is probably the pace angle in this race as he made all to beat West End Charmer at Goodwood last time (Movin Time fourth) but now has to concede that one 3lb; and prior to that he was last in the Huxley at Chester, where Certain Lad was second. Aristia also tried to make all in the Middleton last time and only went down by half a length but she does not have to force it: the problem for both Aristia and Majestic Dawn is their wide draws, so their jockeys will be forced to use up some horse early if they want to lead. Also out wide is Star Safari who has been running over ten furlongs in Meydan at this sort of level but most of his European turf form is over twelve furlongs. Harrovian was stone last in the Dubai Turf where he was totally outclassed but on his previous start he was just behind smart French mare Ebaiyra at Riyadh over this trip. Last year he only won a three runner race on these shores and seems to run in lots of small fields but his inside draw should see him well positioned if good enough. Juan Elcano won this race last year (his second career win that he has not improved on since) and he made the running in the Gordon Richards on his first start this term and finished last of the three with FOXES TALES ahead of him in second on his first start. Andrew Balding’s charge subsequently stepped up in trip in the Aston Park and was more than four lengths fourth. He now drops back to ten furlongs (over which he won a Royal Ascot handicap in 2021) but needs to overcome being widest of all in the stalls.
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