Morning all- hope you are well. Have a fun festival and here is to a safe one for jockeys and horses alike 1.30- Shaneshill 12/1 & Tell Us More 18/1 Odd selections in some ways given the way Mullins talks about Douvan. However, Douvan to me has the style of a Neptune horse and also a horse that will excel over fences. I just think the shake rattle and roll of a Supreme Novice might not be up his street. We know Shaneshill has plenty of pace- always raced prominently and was a very good 2nd in the Champion Bumper here last year, which is valuable course form over many of these. I think the small field and the trip did him when 2nd lto and if he was still unbeaten he would not be 12/1 today. Good ground and a big field will be right up his street. Tell Us More I had been hoping ran in this the minute I saw him defeated in that odd sort of race when chinned by McKinley. He travelled and jumped like a star until wilting in the last 200 yards. Good ground should be a big plus and I think his jumping gives him a real chance of hitting the frame. Not a race to get carried away with though- it's only the first one! 2.05 Josses Hill 14/1 No two ways about it- he has been disappointing thus far. However, of all of the opponents for Un De Sceaux, this is the horse with course form (Supreme runner up) and the scope to actually make a very good chaser. He has not been beaten out of the first two in spite of his jumping errors. I think the combination of good ground, the stiff Cheltenham track, and the improvement with experience might see him go closer than anticipated. 3.20 Jezki 5/1 Firstly- I have to acknowledge that tactically this race might just be set up for Faugheen. There is no pace angle and he might be able to dominate. However, Nigel Twiston-Davies has said he wouldn't want to be letting him out of his sights so I'm hoping The New One does keep him very honest. If this was a flat race I'd have them both clear of Jezki up the hill- however I don't think either Faughen or The New One are the best hurdlers in the field and if they are both on the front-end, there is a chance of a mistake. I think Jezki is actually an improved horse this year- he has travelled far, far better into some of his races and he'll be absolutely bouncing off the good ground today. He is the reigning Champion, will reverse the form with Hurricane Fly on this ground, and is a very neat hurdler. He's a very, very good horse and a stiff benchmark. If Faugheen puts in something remarkable I will be the very first to congratulate- he doesn't look like a Champion Hurdler and a dominant win for him here will actually begin to redefine what we look for in a Champion Hurdle horse, which would be very special indeed. Let's hope it's a good race.
Tuesday small stakes placepot: 1.30: Shaneshill L’Ami Serge Tell Us More 2.05: Josses Hill Un De Sceaux 2.40 Barrakilla The Druids Nephew Black Thunder Gallant Oscar 3.20 The New One Jezki 4.00 Annie Power Glens Melody 4.40 Cause Of Causes The Job Is Right Thunder And Roses 3 x 2 x 4 x 2 x 2 x 3 = 288 lines
They are also doing Money Back on all fallers it seems, or have I read that wrong? But Faugheen is still at evens ..........
great comments Top Class - Jezki and Josses Hill are the horse I fear because they are the ones I am opposing! 1.30 if you ignore the hype about Douvan then there are several horses who could easily win this. My own view is that L'AMI SERGE has the best form going into the race but I don't follow enough irish racing to know about what is being sent over. I will be having a couple of each way bets on Seedling and Shaneshill. I also can't completely ignore the McCoy horse. Anyway hardest race of the day this one for me 2.05 if Un de Sceaux jumps he wins. Having said that I was at Sandown to see VIBRATO VALTAT win a competitive race. The Arkle will be competitive so he will be the one for me 2.40 bit of a lottery but I think there are 3 with leading claims - Gallant Oscar, Gevrey Chambertin and THE DRUIDS NEPHEW who might just get his head in front with Geraghty on board 3.20 FAUGHEEN keeps producing and the only thing he hasnt done is win a Champion Hurdle. This is a top class renewal and I can't ignore the fact that The New One was unlucky in this last year. However I think the favourite wins this one 4.00 the question is how good is ANNIE POWER after nearly a year off? she will probably win but there are other horses with strong each way claims. I have picked out a couple at long odds - Caroles Spirit and The Pirates Queen 4.40 Very Wood is the favourite and rightly so after winning welll here last year 5.15 havent got a clue!
I've gone a little OTT on day 1 Ithink: e/w patent Seedling / Court Minstrel / L'Unique Win treble Un De Sceaux / Faugheen / Annie Power Win L15 Douvan / Un De Sceaux / Faugheen / Annie Power Small stakes novelty bet: All SP favs to place on day 1 @33/1 Might not even bother with the Handicaps, might be too skint
Going to be interesting to see Faugheen off the bridle in a proper race, surely he cant beat The New One, Jezki and Hurricane Fly on the snaff? If Jezki runs to the same level as last year its hard to imagine any horse getting past him on the bridle. I think if Faugheen wins as easily as he has been winning and as easily as some expect, then we have probably seen the best hurdler since the 70s. I personally dont expect to see him win 6L+, im not even sure he will win, but it would be incredible.
Me too - Got a bit carried away with all the too good to be true offers and have already wagered 70% of my Cheltenham pot - could be day 1 dissaster or untold joy!!
Placepot: Seedling / L'Ami Serge Vibrato Valtat / Three Kingdoms Pendra / Barrakilla The New One L'Unique / Mischevious Milly Broadway Buffalo / Sego Success
Yep - being pumped up as much as Frankel was as a 2 year old - are we about to witness the birth of a new ultimate Champion?
Place pot today listed below 130 l'ami serge 205 vibrato valtat 240 mendip express 320 the new one 400 Annie power 440 sego success £2 place pot 10p ew lucky 63 GL today guys hopefully all horses and jockeys come back safe and free of injury and of course a profitable day for all except the bookies
I want The New One to win obviously as 5/1 looks a class price and I think he deserved to win it last year. If he doesnt, im not sure what id prefer, Hurricane Fly to once again defy nature or Faugheen to confirm he is a freak of nature. Jezki again would be too boring!!
Reebs -Corals do money back on ALL fallers throughout the jumps season (max £1000 per day) - you get it as a free bet for the next days racing. Apologies as thet 6/4 was for Priority customers only - they are also enhancing Un De Sceaux/Annie Power double to 5/1 between 12 - 1. Already done that double and wished I had waited
Right lets have an argument! IF you say: The bookies doing their best to sound scared but surely they are in the wrong game if they are not looking forward to it today. Mugs queuing up to back 4 horses that are all way shorter than they should be and all beatable. They are laying a 4 horse accumulator at around 20/1 that should probably be closer to 60/1 and in the unlikely event they do all win, they will have a good chance of getting most of it back from the type of people who will take those odds. You know me, id go 3/1 Douvan, Evs Un De Sceaux, 7/4 Faugheen 4/5 Annie and take the lot! But then again, im not a bookie. Why do your accumulated odds only add to 40/1? Are you yourself actually scared?
I've decided against Gevrey Chambertain based on his poor Cheltenham form, and have plumped for Lamb Or Cod in the 3 mile handicap chase. Clearly at his best on a Sound surface, he has the all-important course form and has been kept fresh for this since finishing well behind Benbane Head on unsuitably soft ground in December. 40/1 Looks worth a wee e/w dabble
Having said that, they are saying the ground is probably going to ride a bit dead ..................... hmmmmm
There would be no need to go any bigger to get the action My perceived odds could look a bit stupid but they are Douvan 7/2, UDS 7/4, Faugheen 9/4 and Evs Annie - which is 79/1 and im probably a bit high with them so called it 60, I didnt want to take on Annie but those are the prices I went with the other 3 on my thread.
Glad you took it in the spirit intended!!! Multiple bet punters fund the bookies most days dreaming of the BIG wins. Fair play to them but they can only take (as I did on Saturday for a couple of quid) whats on offer!
Un De sceaux, faugheen & Annie power treble for me 4/5, 5/4 & 4/6 Already back l'ami serge at 9/2 Handicaps Gevrey Chambertin, Sego Success, horizontal speed but just a watching brief in them
