Transfer Rumours Transfer Rumours thread

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But what would Liverpool actually do in that case? A fundamental breach by the employee can be dealt with either by internal disciplinary action and affirmation of the contract (like Tevez at City), or repudiation and suing for damage (like Mutu at Chelsea).

Repudiation and suing him for damages would basically amount to terminating his contract and claiming damages. Hard to imagine those damages being more than the amount Barca offered in August, so LFC would lose the player for the same or lower fee to what they could have had in August. Affirmation could make the club look weak, like when Tevez ended up only getting fined a month's wages by City when he refused to play and then ended up leaving for Juve for a fraction of his value a year or so later.

If he does refuse to play, which I do reckon is doubtful and based more on Spanish tabs trying to stir up sales, it would be anything other than 'end of'.

You're dreaming. Sue him and his agent for the length of his contract for a start.Withhold his registration too until it's paid.If it was as simple as just saying 'I'm not playing any more' players would be doing it every year. You need to think this through. Personally though, I'd concentrate on his very, very rich agent and his licence to operate. FSG are big enough to drag him through every court in the western world. Extremely dodgy character.
 
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This discussion about players transfer fees is interesting. How do we define overpriced?

With huge amounts of money swirling in the premiership, it is difficult to define. It all depends on the need of the buyer, their buying power and budget, the length of the contract remaining, the financial need of the seller (not likely these days), the desperation of the selling club to stay in the premiership. they are so many different factors to take into account. How can we say that Siggurdson was overpriced at £50m when Walker was sold for more? None of the selling clubs were in need of money. Is Oxlade worth £35 to £40m? it is because LFC wanted him and Arsenal was not desperate to sell. Arsenal and LFC are apprently willing to let £50m players run down their contracts.

Every club is so desperate to stay in the premiership that they look for that extra edge. The players with that little extra go for 2 or 3 times their "worth". How much would someone need to pay for Woodburn even if they were buying potential? Some clubs would not hesitate to take a punt on £60m+ I am sure.
 
Well if PSG peed in their pool, then they definitely peed in our pool, or got stage fright

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41174403

Getting a bit pissed off with Barca's histrionics, albeit through their La Liga mouthpiece this time. They and Real are 'doped' by their relative governmental regional areas, for starters, and if and when the top six Prem league negotiate their own TV rights like they do, then we'd really give them something to whimper about.
 
How do we define overpriced?
When goods or commodities are over valued due to demand. Oxlade- Arsenal were willing to accept £M25 when Liverpool were
the only club in contention, the moment Chelsea became interested, and are willing to pay over the odds for his signature the price went off.
 
This discussion about players transfer fees is interesting. How do we define overpriced?

With huge amounts of money swirling in the premiership, it is difficult to define. It all depends on the need of the buyer, their buying power and budget, the length of the contract remaining, the financial need of the seller (not likely these days), the desperation of the selling club to stay in the premiership. they are so many different factors to take into account. How can we say that Siggurdson was overpriced at £50m when Walker was sold for more? None of the selling clubs were in need of money. Is Oxlade worth £35 to £40m? it is because LFC wanted him and Arsenal was not desperate to sell. Arsenal and LFC are apprently willing to let £50m players run down their contracts.

Every club is so desperate to stay in the premiership that they look for that extra edge. The players with that little extra go for 2 or 3 times their "worth". How much would someone need to pay for Woodburn even if they were buying potential? Some clubs would not hesitate to take a punt on £60m+ I am sure.

One of the most pisspotical arguments this summer was whether Ford was 'worth' £100m+, considering we bought him for £8.5m. The market is never about what the customer wants to pay, it's about what they CAN pay. Someone walking about with £200m in their pocket is not a figure for sympathy and consideration, as Barca seemed to view themselves, especially when you don't want nor need to sell. Barca tried to unsettle the player to address the latter point, so it becomes a matter of principal and strategy to hold your position. How do you put a value on that?
 
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I don't know how the factors are weighted and I'm not assuming anything other than why have as many as 35 factors if book price dominates.

true but having lots of "factors" is one good way to sound impressive at the same time. There cannot be 35 key factors. 4/5 i would say, that really influence matters.

contract length for example. Book value can relate into this but the main thing is about buying the player out of that contract and pressure to sell. If coutinho had 2 years left or even 3 not 5 would we have sold.. yup imo.

fee paid factors into value.

perofrmance factors in there too.

Age.....

Image rights performance.

etc etc
 
One of the most pisspotical arguments this summer was whether Ford was 'worth' £100m+, considering we bought him for £8.5m. The market is never about what the customer wants to pay, it's about what they CAN pay. Someone walking about with £200m in their pocket is not a figure for sympathy and consideration, as Barca seemed to view themselves, especially when you don't want nor need to sell. Barca tried to unsettle the player to address the latter point, so it becomes a matter of principal and strategy to hold your position. How do you put a value on that?


And the old principle about the resale value of the player has now gone out of the window. How likely are Everton going to get much of that £50m back? If VVD had been transferred to us, how likely were we going to get much of that huge transfer fee back? It is all about the players plugging the current gap and satisfying the moment.
 
This discussion about players transfer fees is interesting. How do we define overpriced?

With huge amounts of money swirling in the premiership, it is difficult to define. It all depends on the need of the buyer, their buying power and budget, the length of the contract remaining, the financial need of the seller (not likely these days), the desperation of the selling club to stay in the premiership. they are so many different factors to take into account. How can we say that Siggurdson was overpriced at £50m when Walker was sold for more? None of the selling clubs were in need of money. Is Oxlade worth £35 to £40m? it is because LFC wanted him and Arsenal was not desperate to sell. Arsenal and LFC are apprently willing to let £50m players run down their contracts.

Every club is so desperate to stay in the premiership that they look for that extra edge. The players with that little extra go for 2 or 3 times their "worth". How much would someone need to pay for Woodburn even if they were buying potential? Some clubs would not hesitate to take a punt on £60m+ I am sure.

IMO its down to what do you get in terms of value

Walker: 50mil. no way on gods green earth with city see the value out of that. Not in commercial terms.
Sigurdsson at 45mil... will everton sell 45mil worth of shirts? who knows, doubtful though the lad is 27 so by the time he is 32 will he still be as good... everton will only get the 5 years out of him.
Oxo cube: 35mil.... 24.. 6-8 years left if he signs another deal. 35mil... hmmm... the main issue for fans is he could have been cheaper due to his contact
Salah. score 20 goals and at 25 he could represent value as lfc fans will be all over him and he will pay that fee back in quick order in image rights.
 
You're dreaming. Sue him and his agent for the length of his contract for a start.Withhold his registration too until it's paid.If it was as simple as just saying 'I'm not playing any more' players would be doing it every year. You need to think this through. Personally though, I'd concentrate on his very, very rich agent and his licence to operate. FSG are big enough to drag him through every court in the western world. Extremely dodgy character.

But his contract is five more years at around £8 million a year. So you would take £40m in damages?

If it's true he will refuse to play, and as I said above I think that's doubtful, then he'd pay £40m in a second and join Barca in Jan. You could claim all the agents fees paid, any bonuses paid and any of that and it still wouldn't cover the money Barca offered.

Barca would probably advance him the money, and once you've repudiated the contract and claimed the full amount you couldn't withhold the registration as he'd be a Bosman.
 
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But his contract is five more years at around £8 million a year. So you would take £40m in damages?

If it's true he will refuse to play, and as I said above I think that's doubtful, then he'd pay £40m in a second and join Barca in Jan. You could claim all the agents fees paid, any bonuses paid and any of that and it still wouldn't cover the money Barca offered.

Barca would probably advance him the money, and once you've repudiated the contract and claimed the full amount you couldn't withhold the registration as he'd be a Bosman.

absolutely. the only time to sue is aftr the player has left <laugh>
 
IMO its down to what do you get in terms of value

Walker: 50mil. no way on gods green earth with city see the value out of that. Not in commercial terms.
Sigurdsson at 45mil... will everton sell 45mil worth of shirts? who knows, doubtful though the lad is 27 so by the time he is 32 will he still be as good... everton will only get the 5 years out of him.
Oxo cube: 35mil.... 24.. 6-8 years left if he signs another deal. 35mil... hmmm... the main issue for fans is he could have been cheaper due to his contact
Salah. score 20 goals and at 25 he could represent value as lfc fans will be all over him and he will pay that fee back in quick order in image rights.

Aye. Commercial value is interesting. there is always the value of the player in terms of image rights and sponsorships. When you've got a face like Suarez or Costa you are only relying on your prowess on the pitch <laugh> But when you've one like Beckham, what you do on the pitch is a bonus. I was surprised when the mancs sold beckham to Madrid for £25m. He got the Spaniards that money in less of one year's worth of sponsorships and shirts sales.

There is also that value of being the number one: the most expensive player in the world. PSG's form and performance may not have improved that much (although no doubt Neymar improves them) but they are now more prominent and their image as a club bigger.
 
This is true, however that also means a 19% inaccurate prediction rate. Given that the table posted above shows the biggest discrepancies between their predictions and actual values, it's fair to say these transfers are part of the 19%. Also it's very easy to create a model that has a high prediction rate when you keep adding in more and more variables, particularly ones like book value which will obviously have some colinearity with transfer fees.

The inclusion of book value does actually explain most of their worst predictions as well. Not, imo, a coincidence that the vast majority of the most 'overvalued' players were those with little or no book value, nor that the three 'undervalued' players were the three with their book values still high.
Their worst predictions weren't anything to do with book value. They were to do with the crazy Neymar deal setting a completely false / against all predictions reality which made nearly all transfers this window 'overvalued'. The 'undervalued' players being pretty much correctly valued and not undervalued at all.
 
Would not be surprised to see clubs spending unwisely going into administration. Spending more than your turnover on a player is
unrealistic. Maybe PSG did their home before they bought Neymar, who knows?.
 
Aye. Commercial value is interesting. there is always the value of the player in terms of image rights and sponsorships. When you've got a face like Suarez or Costa you are only relying on your prowess on the pitch <laugh> But when you've one like Beckham, what you do on the pitch is a bonus. I was surprised when the mancs sold beckham to Madrid for £25m. He got the Spaniards that money in less of one year's worth of sponsorships and shirts sales.

There is also that value of being the number one: the most expensive player in the world. PSG's form and performance may not have improved that much (although no doubt Neymar improves them) but they are now more prominent and their image as a club bigger.

yeah you are right. i'd say the movie goal 2 made back that money on its own i'd say.. no way would that movie have made if beckham was not at real. his face i nthe movie made it possible to move form newkie to there <laugh>