If the EFL charged us just for the late payment to AV, AND the suggestion of an agreement is true, then a lifting or at the very least a reduction seems likely.
Even if the EFL are generally unhappy with some of the issues around the club, if they're not included in the charge it is irrelevant to this appeal.
This seem possible with the Barry fee due in March on paper (according to reports and lets say last business day in March - 30th) then we exceeded the 30 days on the 30th June, this Monday - checks out.
IF the EFL had packaged this up with another late payment to another club, a payment that was even a day late, the EFL proceedings would have started earlier as as per the EFL guides, it's 30 days across all late payments.
This can refer to one default of 30 days, or a number of individual defaults which when taken together amount to 30 days.
If we follow that train of thought it could be that the AV/Barry fee is the only change (at this stage). This doesn't mean we don't owe suppliers, or the the EFL aren't worried about our finances in general, BUT you can see how there is confidence, if the credit note/agreement is sufficient, that it will at least get reduced. The credit note/agreement was likely intended, so that no funds and to move across the two clubs for the Barry deal, however there will be payment dates on both the Philogene, and the Barry paperwork. It could be that those payments are 'legally', days, weeks, months apart as per the deal sheets. For arguments sake you could assume that we'll get a Philogene instalment every season (let's say the 1st July the first official day of the new season). It can then be assumed that the agreement was, don't pay us and we won't pay you but it's likely the EFL need to see that money transfer even if it goes straight back. If the credit/agreement can be proven than a reduction seems highly likely. How convicted the EFL are that the money has to change hands physically in my opinion will determine if it's lifted or reduced. Hence Acun been cautious that it we be 'reduced' in his interview/chat with Baz.
It could also be that AV should have paid us prior to our Barry payment but due to the credit note/agreement didn't. HOWEVER as they're in the Premier League, the EFL may not have full transparency of that (could be true that they haven't seen the credit note for the same reason - they may have seen it this week but it's too late as the punishment has been implemented and can't be reversed in the same way as an embargo can - it has be be appealed - as is the process) - this could be some of the other proposed evidence. The fact the AV were also willing to enter a new agreement with us (even with 'outstanding monies') may add weight to our argument that AV were aware of and okay with the situation. That might not be good enough for the EFL hence at least a reduction as some form of punishment still needs to be imposed.
If the EFL have managed to include any other changes thats were we'll struggle to lift the punishment. There may be other outstanding monies but the timeline doesn't add up and the lifting of the embargo implies all overdue monies have been paid - to clubs at least. If there was other missed payments I believe this would have all kicked off earlier.
What's happened isn't right and we need to learn from it. It's naive but I don't think currently in this specific situation theres any maliciousness.
IF Acun has confidence in the agreement/credit note. I don't think he lied on Monday. He told what he believed was the truth. He was probably caught of guard too (should he have been is another topic altogether). This is why he's probably keen to explain it.
The problem is, the damage already is done. The EFL were probably taking a closer look at us and chose to act on this missed payment because of a build up of worries (suppliers not paid on time, player payments not paid). I think thats exactly what's happen, hence why theres strong thoughts on but side. If thats the cace but they've not included them in the charge, they have no barring on this - or shouldn't from a legal stand point. What it does highlight is - DON'T MESS UP THE OTHER PAYMENTS - then the EFL won't be putting you under extra scrutiny.
This is just my personal opinion but I think we'll have some level of reprieve from the punishment in some capacity. Perhaps a suspended punishment would be best for all parties - under the condition of no late payments over 14 days or AT ALL over the next three seasons. Something like that would hopefully alleviate some of the EFLs concerns regarding poor money mismanagement (especially if the Barry fee can be talked down and the EFL are worried about the clubs finances and aren't able to act officially on those concerns at the moment). It also allows everyone to kinda keep face.
This took me ages to write so it's likely everything changes since I started typing.