Have to wonder if Eddie Howe would have admitted to Joelinton's handball if that got him one of the eight deserved booking yesterday...
It's called Occam's Razor...you go for the simplest theory that fits the facts. The distribution of goals between matches in a league season is entirely consistent with the better teams having the better goal differences and the poorer teams having the poorer goal differences. When the better teams play the poorer teams they tend to win by more. But, allowing for that, the number of goals scored and conceded in each match is entirely consistent with the distribution being random. If your theory is correct it should be able to predict which teams will narrowly beat us and which ones we will heavily beat. Personally I think we will score about 38 goals and concede about 27 in the last 18 matches which will get us about 35 more points.
That’d put us on just 2 points less than what we got last season. We lost 12 games last season and have already lost 10 this season. I think your theory would require us to go on quite the run involving mainly wins and draws, acquiring an average of almost 2 points a game over those 18 matches which would be something like 10 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. I admire your optimism and theory but I can’t help but think it’s wildly misguided/ misjudged.
Agreed, unless Ange changes the tactics/formation I can’t see this happening, even when our CBs are fit.
I also think he needs a bit of added quality too. A lot of teams in the league improved their sides season over the summer, we barely did and I think we’ve suffered for it along with the tactics and injuries.
We still need to travel to Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa. Brentford and Fulham away have also become really tough fixtures recently. I think it would be for the best if we conceded that the league is gone beyond redemption, and just focus everything on the cup competitions. I think most fans would take a mid table finish if it came with a trophy, especially if that trophy is the EL.
