Need to go unbeaten in the league for the rest of the season now or else it will be most losses ever in the PL era. 19 defeats in 1 season is a joke.
I'd be grateful if you would elaborate on this. My gut feeling is to agree but I can't articulate why I do.
Not a chance mate. We all know how psyched West Ham are for that fixture, all the more so with it giving them the chance to leapfrog us plus we will have both eyes on the SF. Palace will probably be focused on the FAC but that fixture is 3 days after our away leg so I'd give us a draw tops. Both Brighton and Villa are better than us and will be scrapping for European qualification. Defeat in both of those. We will end the season with 38 points and 22 defeats.
In stattery terms, the probability/correlation measures between pts and goal tallies for the relegation candidates/victims is very high. So these are very coarse measures, but they already tell us a lot. If you are able to objectively score for each opposition attempt, the probability that each attempt results in a goal, then you see that for such teams : 1. those scores will be closer to 1.0 than say 0.5 2. the average number of attempts faced will be much higher Which brings us to Spurs. I suspect that : 1. you only have to face a certain number of attempts with a certain minimum attempt score, to result in actually losing games en masse 2. and even a reasonably decent attack will not overcome this
We hear that every year. Spurs will spend money as without adding quality and selling the duds, Spurs will be miles off the European places.
We are one of the few teams with a higher XGA than GA which suggests we're lucky not to have conceded more. We're second best in the league for goals scored:conceded in the final 15 mins of games (17:8) Only Bmouth are better (18:8). But a simple eye test will show that those most certainly aren't late winners. 30% of our goals this season have come in games we've lost or drawn. My own take on all this is that - ironically - Ange's mental system has led to us having higher fitness levels than most teams. This plus the fact that we have a lot of attackers who are definitely better than 16th in the league has led to us scoring a lot of meaningless consolation goals against tiring opponents, and that has led to us stat-padding our overall GD.
Assuming that xGA (proprietary closed domain method) is sound, then it supports my claim on the cumulative attempts of a certain level being faced.
