Transfer Rumours Tosh, goss 'n twaddle - Summer 2020

Before. The "worst case scenario" projections from the club were a £30-40m hole in the finances, but I believe that was factoring in the season not resuming, and Sky wanting money back from the Prem for not having enough games for the TV deal. Not sure what the budget gap looks like now. Perhaps one player sale a necessity?

I wonder if any of our squad will "do a Grealish", and be prepared to play in the Championship for a season? He was essentially promised that Villa would sell him last summer if they weren't promoted, and was a talismanic player for them that did a lot of the work that got them promoted. Within our squad, Cantwell is probably the most similar proposition, could easily see him notching 15+ goals and a similar number of assists in the Championship. Lewis, Aarons, Godfrey could feel that they owe the club a season? No idea. Gut feeling is Emi will leave, but Pukki's 2020 form will put people off.

At least all our key assets are on long contracts!

 

Just seen an Athletic article declaring "Norwich want Cantwell to lead promotion bid", so I'm clearly psychic.

 

What are your other predictions?

 

How much money could NCFC expect to realise from being in the PL and from parachute payments?

 

Parachute payments are around £43m in year one, £35m in year two. Being in the Prem is obviously worth rather a lot more.

 

But it's still a big advantage over other Championship clubs. Two years ago we had to sell Maddison just to break even. My hope is that we can gradually raise the quality of players coming in to continue developing over the long term.

 

Definitely, particularly when gate revenue is going to be dropping across the board.

Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff have Year 2 parachute payments next year, Swansea, Stoke, WBA might get Year 3 payments (something we won't get in the future).

Of those 6 teams, 4 have a chance of promotion, 2 have a chance of relegation. There's not going to be that many teams swimming around in the Championship with huge amounts of funding. Hopefully the other two teams coming down do so with complex finances/squads that make bouncing back tricky.

 

This virus is perfect to drag everyone down to the same level of financial ****tyness as we have been used to from our overspending days.

 

Question, DH, if you know: Will those amounts now be less because of the coronavirus?

 

Fair question! Given Leeds fans on twitter are moaning about an "EFL conspiracy" to deduct them money, as newly promoted teams will "lose" Premier League income as they're expected to contribute to the Sky/BT rebate for the breach of contract in the 19/20 season, I would imagine relegated teams will be similarly impacted.

 

I think the real difference in going down now compared to the last time a few years back is the make up of the squad. Last time we came down we did so carrying a lot of deadwood in an already ageing squad. This time we have a number of players in their peak years along with a good group of young saleable assets.

I don’t want to see any of the young guys go - Godfrey, Aarons, Lewis, Cantwell, Buendia or Idah, and is hope that if we could keep that core together we could mount a promotion push next season. But I also recognise that a few of them may want to seek a move now whilst their stock is high - things can change so quickly in football, this may be their only shot at a big time move. The positive here is that we have a Sporti Director who won’t let them go cheap and the money that we receive should help us improve the squad.

 

Would be happy to see Pukki & Buendia moved on, if we can get the money that they were rumoured to be worth before lockdown. Although in my mind neither have done much recently to justify the sums that have been linked to them. Aarons & Lewis are over valued in the press, yes both are decent and have potential, but both need to improve their decision making & crossing to get the sort of sums they are being rumoured to be worth. Of the 2, I would be happier to lose Lewis, who for me is on par with Byram, we seemed to play better when Byram plays. For me our 2 most valuable younger players at the moment are Cantwell & Godfrey both of who seem to be continually improving as they get more experience.

Something we do lack when Hanely doesn't play is a motivator on the pitch. Krul tries but we need someone outfield. Tettey has done better this season than I thought he would, but each season he gets a year older and not sure his knees are up to playing a pivotal roll in the team next season. So I think a CDM is maybe the most pressing area that we need to strengthen by recruiting an experienced / motivational player. Alternatively could we play Hanley & either Krul / Zimmermann as CB's and Godfrey as a CDM or 3 CB's.

 

Some gossip from a usually reliable source:

• Before Covid, the plans for summer transfer spending (for a Championship season) would shock people - in a positive way.
• Widely agreed within the club that last summer was a failure.
• Godfrey & Aarons to big clubs only for big money only, Emi to Spain for not as much. Lewis and Pukki expected to stay.
• Leitner "won't be back"
• And on an unrelated note, there's plans for memorials/statues to Fashanu, Forbes, and somebody who did a lot of work for supporter groups. [Edit: Roy Blower]

 

Interesting comments DH. In spite of Covid 19 (which affects all teams), We should be in a relatively strong position this summer. Having spent, or misspent, relatively little last summer, (the £4.5m spent on Fahrmann and the loan fee for Amadou only had a marginal influence). Byram is the only bright point, but some of the young players recruited may come through in the future.

Clearly, our recruitment this summer will return to a long-term perspective rather than expensive loans. We have a good squad for Championship football and if any Young players leave, we can strengthen further from the 'big money' that brings in. I hope this means we won't be recruiting from the lowest German leagues, this time. More bargain battlers like Byram instead please.

 

I think Lewis would be the most likely that we could let leave as we have already bought his eventual replacement in Mcallum.
Sitti will take Leitners place in the squad - I can’t see him returning.
Sinani has apparently been brought in to play up front so is a Drmic or Pukki replacement, although I thought he was a CAM.

 

In terms of who leaves, I guess it's down to where the interest lies. But I've no doubt the club have targets in mind for every position should they prove necessary. Krul arguably the hardest to replace!

Just looked up Sinani's stats this season, because I thought he was a left winger. Just listened to an interview he gave with the club where he describes himself as a number 10.
7 games as a striker brought 8 goals and 2 assists.
4 games as a right winger (2G, 2A)
2 games as a CAM (3G, 2A)
1 game as a left winger (1A)

For the rest of the 30 games he's played this season positional data isn't available, but his totals are 24 goals and 8 assists. 46 goals and 29 assists in total for Dudelange in 99 games. So he's productive!

Obviously the level is rather different to the Championship for most of those games, but he scored 2 goals against Sevilla in the Europa League group stage this year, and 2 goals and an assist against APOEL Nicosia in the same competition. In 6 rounds of Europa League qualifying, he got a goal or assist in every game.

Really curious to see what kind of player we've got.

 

New rumour alert: Norwich are reportedly close to signing Jakob Sørensen from Esbjerg fB in the Danish league. 22yo midfielder.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/jacob-lungi-sorensen/profil/spieler/390664
Looks like a CM/DM.

Obligatory youtube compilation:

His first touch and passing range looks decent.

 

Could he be a Ben Godfrey replacement if he left, as he (Godfrey) has been linked with several clubs lately from Germany & England, and Sorensen plays in similar positions to him

Comparison between the 2 players on link below via Transfer-market:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/vergleich/spielervergleich/statistik/def/spieler/390664&343475

 

He looks more like a midfielder who can double as a CB in a pinch, rather than someone you'd bring in for their ability at CB. 116 games played, only 10 at CB (all in the 18/19 season). I'd be a bit worried if he was being considered as primarily a CB signing.

If there's anything in this, it looks like we're going to have quite the mix of central midfielders to play deeper roles. Tettey, Trybull, McLean, Vrancic, Rupp, Sitti, Thompson, Sorensen. Although perhaps we'd see a couple of the youngsters out on loan.

 

More important than who is or isn't here next season, is how they are going to be asked to play.

If we are going to continue to build our offensive game on having both full backs in the opposition half, we will need all the CMs we can get, preferably all on the pitch at the same time .............