Top two settled what about 3rd and fourth???

Personally,I can accept the extra point away from CL places at the expense of a Man.U defeat

 

68 points got 3rd in 06/07 and given how poor the league has been outside theTop2 so far, there is a decent chance it could be lower this season.

 

I think 3rd place this year will be below 70 points. Arsenal are nailed on for a top 4 spot imo
Utd are favourites for 4th but are the most likely to be ousted. I still feel that we are rank outsiders and we would need a run similar to the last 2 years to have a chance

 

The clouds

 

anything could happen.

I don't think 3rd will be that low though.... not with 3/4 teams fighting. that will drive them on.

A brief analysis:

• Historical data:

this time last year with 21 games gone 3rd placed chelsea had 46 points and we in 4th were sitting on 42... top of table was arsenal on 48... this year

the year before 3rd and 4th had 40 and 41 points.

now......... this year we know what the score is.

In other words this year is 4 or 5 points off those years pace.

in 2012/23 3rd was finally 75 points. the league was piss poor that year with nobody competing with utd..... but 3rd to 5th was covered by 3 points! This is a nice season to go off of.

So.... right now 70 points for 3rd seems like something that could occur going by that...

however in 2013/14 3rd was 82 points.... cheslea...


Another interesting FACKT is that all the teams chasing only arsenal have more home games than away games left. that have played 10 at home and 11 away. everyone else has the opposite position. Could this be contributing to the lesser points? Utd are that bad on the road it has made the difference for them!

• Supposition

Really the thing boils down to

a) teams are off the pace of previous years
b) there are a lot of teams who are capable of beating each other
c) there are also a lot of teams competing for 3rd and 4th.
d) some teams *coughs* only have the league to worry about despite them reporting the fixture dates for fa cup final to fans.

Southampton and utd have most points and lest games to play. Spurs, arsenal and LFC all have more games to play.... west ham are up there but nobody cares

One can only assume that as the year goes on at least one team will emerge as a clear candidate for 4th place. With 17 games left there are 51 points on offer. Given the fact that southampton have 39 in the bag we have to assume they can pic up 31 more which is after all 10 wins and done draw out of 17. = 70 points.

 

in 06/07 after 21 games bolton sat 3rd on 39 points and lfc sat 4th on 37... arsneal were on 36

this year it is southampton on 39.... UTd on 37... arsneal on 36...

please do note however bolton ended up on 56 points = a haul of 17 points from 17 games so with both LFC and arsenal falling over the line with 68 points and nobody unitl spurs in 5th on 60 points...

Three things spring to mind

1. LFC were in CL final in 06/07... this contibuted to run in.. lfc rested players for 2 full weeks before finl and it actually hurt the teams sharpness

2. arsenal were just plain bad.

3. nobody challenged the 3rd and 4th spots really.

So could this happen... yes it could... will it happen? I think i'd rather bet on more than 70points rather than less myself.

 

Table:Top Half.
1 Chelsea 26 34 60
2. Man City 26 31 55
3 Arsenal 26 20 48
4 .Man Utd 26 18 47
5. Southampton 26 19 46
5.Liverpool 26 9 45
6 Tottenham 26 5 44
8.West Ham 26 8 39
9 Swansea 26 -4 37
10 Stoke 26 -4 36
~Nine points between Man Utd and Stoke. Can Stoke make it?.
On a serious note the battle for the top four has never been this close since the inception
of the premiership.

 

The thing is..... If this were last year lfC would be on 61 points with 10 wins one loss and one draw to go in a title race
This year everyone seems worse if anything

Just saying lads..... Every year is different and it's the team who go on a big run now that will get there.

Don't tell me about our great form up til now. Tell me what we will do for next 12!

 

Out of 36 points, realistically how many points do you think we can have?, bearing in mind that we have to face
Man City at home on Sunday, also Arsenal and Chelsea away. To me, if we could get 30 or over points, it is a job well
done.Still have to play Man Utd at home. No easy game in the premiership.

 

If that happens we are definitely 3rd or 4th. I honestly think that's the target.

BUT to do this we need to go a "title winning" run of 10 wins out of 12. Of course it can be done but realistically there will be draws along the way and the odd defeat. If we were 4th or better with the same gap and points I would be much more confident.

 

How do you work that one out?
We had 53 after 26 last year.

 

30 points out of 36?

Go give your head a wobble ffs

 

25 points required for a probable top 4. Where will they come from?

Man City (H) - 1 point
Burnley (H) - 3 points
Swansea (A) - 1 point
Man Utd (H) - 3 points
Arsenal (A) - 0 points
Newcastle (H) - 3 points
Hull (A) - 3 point
West Brom (A) - 1 point
QPR (H) - 3 points
Chelsea (A) - 0 points
C. Palace (H) - 3 points
Stoke (A) - 3 points

This would give us 24 points, one short of the 70 point benchmark that would likely give us top 4. Of couse, a loss against City but a win against Swansea gives us that point....or countless other permutations...as long as we keep winning and knocking the games off, it doesn't matter.... either way....It's gunna be tight!!

 

I am actually going game by game to confuse everyone. Just like astro does

I did game by game comparison and we would have been up there on 61 if it was fixture to fixture.

you are of course right we actually had less in a round by round number which is probably more fair anyway

 

Did it last year.
However, I do think it's optimistic, 24-26 would be more realistic if we keep up current form.

 

MY opinion here is you totally ignore the games against top 4 except for utd which is a 6 pointer

Look at the fixtures against lower teams

Burnley (H) - 3 points
Swansea (A) - 1 point
Man Utd (H) - 3 points

Newcastle (H) - 3 points
Hull (A) - 3 point
West Brom (A) - 1 point
QPR (H) - 3 points
C. Palace (H) - 3 points
Stoke (A) - 3 points

You say we will drop points away.. this is probably a wise thing BUT I say these 8 games are bread and butter and if LFC want 3rd or 4th then winning those 8 are where all our focus should be.

thats 9 games up there to win... win them and we get 27 points. thats the way to go

I think we can but we must not take our eye off any of these for the sake of a cup cos frankly our rivals will muller these sides big time.

UTd lost to swansea away... we must win there
BOth play palace away.. we got through the cup but i nthe league will we want it enough.
West brom might be safe by then... who knows

QPR will be desperate but can they defend well at anfield???

etc etc.

 

It's working well with me.

 

Hmmmm......you're right of course, in a perfect world, we should be putting these guys away.....but I'd prefer knowing that we had to get 25 points from wherever than winning every match against those 9, half of whom are fighting for their own survival. Points will be dropped against that lot. Like I said, whichever way that you slice and dice it, top 4 will go to the wire this year.

 

Have you seen Uniteds next 8 league fixtures?

Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and Everton - away

Arsenal, Spuds, Villa and City - home



Spurs and Soton's fixtures look far more appealling. United are really going to have to step up at least 1 gear if they're to remain in the top 4 come the end of April.

 

Nothing would be funnier than that lot missing out on CL football again. Wonder if they'll be able to splash another £150m if they don't!? If we don't make it, I'd prefer to see a team like Southampton squeeze in, although imo, they are now the outsiders.

Can't see Arsenal slipping up and missing out tbh, so it's one of Liverpool, Utd, Southampton and Spurs for the last spot.