Top 4 and Run in

I've looked at the table and the games left and am making some predictions.
https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england

Man City: Have a decent run in. A lot of games against the bottom half and their two games in the top 6 are against teams with dreadful records in the top 6. If you are fair you can't see them dropping more than a couple of points. +22 Points = 98.

Liverpool: Almost as good a run in as City, but not quite and they have played an extra game. They have a lot of draws in the top half particularly away from home. Let's be generous and say they wont lose but just draw two more. +17 points = 93.​

Spurs: Have been very good against everyone outside the top 6. They are very likely to lose both their away games to Liverpool and City, but it would be fair to say that they could easily win all their other games. To be consistent, let's give them one draw. +16 points = 77.
​

Arsenal: No games left against the top 4, but 5 away games. It seems safe to predict home wins against Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brighton, and an away win against Burnley. Of the remaining 4 away games let's pessimistically say we lose 1, win 1, and draw 2. +17 points = 77.

Manchester United: Should win against Cardiff and Huddersfield. That leaves 2 tricky away games against Wolves and Everton. And 4 tricky home games against the top half. Given their existing record against the top half, let's give them a generous 3 wins, 2 ties and a loss. +17 points = 75.
​

Chelsea: Should win games against Brighton, Burnley and Cardiff, but given their record against the top half teams, they will be lucky to get more than 4 points from their other games. +13 points = 70

So my Prediction: Man City winners.
Liverpool Runners up
Arsenal, Spurs in the top 4, and a toss up whether we will have St Totteringham's day this year, but I'd give us the edge at this point, given that we have a little more chance to improve our points total and Spurs really don't without getting points at Liverpool and City or being otherwise perfect.

 

I would say these are believable, level headed predictions.

unfortunately the thing about our team is more often than not we are....unpredictable.

 

I feel this would have been better tacked on as a reply to your thread before the season about your predictions for the season......?

 

I'd go with that. Did a similar thread on the PL board.

https://www.not606.com/threads/battle-for-top-4.372778/

 

I make no excuses for my previews of the season. I don't go into a season thinking negatively. I think I enjoy the idea we might win, almost as much as I do actually winning.

 

Anyone else watch the game today?
Mesut Ozil with a superb assists for Lacazette in our friendly against Al-Nasr in Dubai. Was nice to see Jenkinson get a goal.
Denis Suarez had a decent game.

Only downside was Mustafi on his ass with his limbs flailing uncontrollably while the opposition scores. Standard.

 

Decent set of predictions to be fair. A lot depends on how well we both cope with European demands, as neither of us have the squads to rotate against the likes of City or Napoli. You have a bunch of potentially very tricky away games in quick succession with Everton, Watford and Wolves (although I can't see you dropping more than 4 points from that, which I think you predicted anyway.). Palace in between the Napoli games could be tricky.

We've got a massive boost with the new stadium and Dele returning but I also can't see past defeats at Pool and City - defensively we just aren't good enough anymore. Thankfully we play Huddersfield and Brighton at home in between the string of games against City. You've earmarked us for 1 draw which is fair but even West Ham will struggle with their usual piss on our end of season parade as that game is also at home and the crowd will quite literally carry the team across the line. I'd like to think we can secure 18 out of 24 points which should be enough to make top 4 and avoid the ignominy of St Totteringham's Day.

 

Talk of St Totteringham's day already...…...I like it

 

Feels like the natural order of the Universe is being restored.

 

to be fair, St. Totteringhams day was made out of the 20+ years of consistently finishing above them. Even if we do finish above them this year, I dont think I will label it 'St Totteringham's' day anymore.

 

You see I don't understand why you pick Mustafi out for trying to make a block, when there are two defenders behind him standing there like statues not marking anyone and making no move towards the ball. I don't get why standing 10 yards off and not making a move to the ball is better than making an attempt to block?

If one of those 2 moves to the ball to close down the cut back, Mustafi making the attacker cut back is good defending. He absolutely does the right thing in preventing the first shot.

 

suit yourself.....

 

Mate he is calamitous. As you say he makes an 'attempt' at a block.

I've never seen a defender fall to ground as often.

We have teams like Tottenham complaining that Vertonghen is'nt good enough.. Or Luis at Chelsea. I would swap Mustafi for either of those in a heartbeat. I guess over the last 20 years Arsenal fans have had to endure some pretty terrible CB's (Senderos, Cygan, Squillaci, Silvestre, Djourou, Gabriel, Mustafi etc.)
I do admit I complain about him too often on here (although partly his own fault for the sheer number of mistakes he makes) but frankly I'm just fed up with sub par players in this position.

 

But you are missing my point based on semantics. You see complete inactivity as better than successfully denying the first shot. Mustafi didn't make a mistake. He denied the attacker the shot. Just becuase he wasn't able to deny the subsequent shot as well you deem his defensive actions a failure, but they were 100% more successful than his 2 defensive parters that were statically marking space through the whole passage of play.

You focus on Mustafi because he was involved in the play and did everything he could be reasonably expected to do, but ultimately unsuccessful, instead of two defenders who were 100% ****ing useless and made no attempt to be anything but useless.

 

No I focused on Mustafi for the same reason thousands of disgruntled fans on Twitter did. He makes these kinds of mistakes FAR too often... and it was pretty comedic.

 

Just pathetic. Cant even say what he did wrong.

 

Mate he fell on his arse. There's not much to discuss. Rather than making a successful block he fell over - this sums his Arsenal career up.

Even when he makes ridiculous errors your not willing to admit he ****ed up.

 

Have you ever played football?

You do realize people fall over? He denied the striker the shot = success. The fact he fell over afterwards is irrelevant. If the two defenders behind them hadn't been standing there just watching there would be no goal. Trying to blame the goal on him shows how little you understand what you are talking about.

You are fairly typical of people these days. You start out with an opinion and then you ignore any fact that contradicts that opinion, and see everything through the lens of your already formed bias. And if people don't agree with you , you just insult them. That is why these discussions end up so toxic.

If falling over was indicative of a bad player then there would be no good players playing. And this is why I called you out. You don't even know why he is supposed to be a bad player, you are just following the herd. Twice now you've told me that he is a bad player, just because that is what everyone else thinks, as if that is a valid reason.

So why is it so important to so many Arsenal fans for all of us to have a negative opinion of so many players. Even though you can't even tell us why they are bad players; and most of the time simple cursory research show that the facts don't even come close to justifying that opinion? Mustafi is AGAIN statistically our best defender on whoscored, with Van Dijk and several reasonable other candidates leading the league. So we are supposed to believe that the stats work for other players, but there is some sort of logical anomaly that just applies to Mustafi?

I am honestly completely bemused by the whole thing. It makes no sense to me. If you don't like him, say "I don't like him". But don't say he is a "Bad (or ineffective) defender", because he just isn't.

 

TT, I think we could forgive Mustafi for falling over or going to ground if it didn't happen on a regular basis. But he does it all too often and it usually results in us conceding a free-kick or the opportunity for the opposition to score. His judgment and composure (or lack of) is appalling for a central defender that we spent £35m on, who supposedly came with a big reputation from the Spanish league.

Also, if you wouldn't mind, could you please show me these figures that show Mustafi is "statistically our best defender?" Because even if this is true, and I'm not sure it is, I think this will show that they don't tell the entire story.

At the end of the day TT, he is a liability in our defence and he's been here for 3 years now, yet showed no signs of improvement.

Arsenal fans don't get on his back because they want to moan for the sake of it, they get on his back because he makes mistakes all the time in a position that is absolutely critical to not make mistakes in.

Most newspapers like The Independent, The Telegraph and The Guardian have been saying he is on the club's transfer list, so it clearly isn't just the fans who feel this way about him.

It's safe to say the transfer hasn't worked out. It's a shame, but it happens.

 

I will simplify this because you are clearly struggling.

Mustafi falls to ground too often as Brunel rightly points out.

Soo often in fact it's becoming a meme. If you went to matches, you might be awaire of this. Funnily enough I was just watching training footage from yesterday afternoon and the top comments are of course all concerned with Mustafi falling on his face - even in training. You can find video here if interested..

Its not a conspiracy theory. Its just an embaressing reality.