. Although in a pure sense that's right, the modelling is so complex for game theory as a result of the involvement of personalities and tactical variations rather than it being a pure probability for each outcome that I don't think there's anyone on here that's likely to be able to do it reliably. The law of averages approach, although not mathematically applicable is a better one for people to use to project results in games like this because their thoughts are able to more similiarly mirror the thought processes of the players involved when considering the outcomes. ie When you get teams on a good run and they come up against a good team they're aware of it and are sharp. When they come up against a crap team there's more chance of them switching off and an upset occurring. Similarly, the team that's losing all the time unless they've been demoralised by their poor run sees ending the good team's run (as somebody will eventually do) as an extra opportunity to prove people wrong whilst also playing under less pressure because they're not expected to get a result (which they will eventually get. At least at this stage of the season before the relegation battle intensifies, once that kicks in the freedom goes a bit and the moral starts dropping as a team struggles making it easier to predict. When I was betting I always used to look for games where teams on long good runs came up against teams on poor runs and back the poor formed team (watch the little bar at the bottom on SSN for announcements about club record runs etc). Admittedly there I was also exploiting the match odds generating a bigger return so I wasn't necessarily looking for a huge success rate in order to make a profit. Having got on to that element of complacency, I'd be happier with a draw tomorrow and a win next week than I would with a win tomorrow and a draw next week as it would show that the players were properly focused and that for the rest of the season we should only expect to drop points against the better sides.
I would venture that probably only a handful of people could take a game like football and apply the theory in such a way to get a reliable mathematical prediction. One would hope that those types of people had better things to do than predict football games. Still, in a way you are using very basic game theory to predict your outcome. You know very specific things, ie their current record, ours, they current form, ours, their goals for and against etc. You are using more knowledge than just the fact that they have lost all their games and should eventually win a game in the real world. A draw as you say would not make you happy. In a way I would say that you and most of us are using game theory as opposed to something like the law of averages and just do not realize it. We know that we aught to win against them, because of that we will predict a victory as opposed to thinking that the game will give them the win that the real world will eventually give them. I would say that it was our knowledge of the sport, ie the numbers behind what we are seeing that we are subconsciously using the one theory over the other.
Once again a good days results in the championship for Hull City. I expected Brighton to win @ Millwall and so they did but Cardiff chucking a 2 goal lead away and losing @ the Palace was a Brucie Bonus for sure. So with Blackpool not playing until mondau night at home to Udders, its quite simple for the Tigers today. Win @ Lesta and we go joint top and into 2nd place. That will do for me. Crystal Palace would have got performace of the day for me BUT for Barnsley destroying Birmingham on there own ground. 5-0. now what would we give for a similar scorline today ? lol ++++++++++++++ O/T Just looking at the table sunday and to see the Wendies just above the bottom 3. They have dropped badly over the last 3 weeks or so. So much for getting Jay Bothroyd. City go there in 2 weeks time.
