Sectional Debrief Special: Newbury Friday 17 and Saturday 18 April
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By Simon Rowlands -- published 19th April 2015
Simon Rowlands analyses the sectionals from Newbury and reveals a good ante-post bet.
Two days of fascinating and, at times, exhilarating racing at Newbury reminded us all of what is so good about Flat racing. However, it now almost goes without saying (so, in future, I won’t be saying it) that British racing provided no electronic sectional timing to accompany the otherwise top-notch action. What follows was manually derived from analysis of videos.
Newbury is usually one of the worst tracks in the country for establishing sectionals by hand. It has a wide straight and camerawork seldom allows for accurate times for the leaders, let alone for the pursuing horses.
But a strip across the course just after the three-furlong pole meant race sectionals could be taken at that point – which is what will appear in due course as part of an enhanced Race Passes service – and consistent side-on coverage at the four-furlong pole meant that individual sectionals could be established there, for all that that is further from the finish than ideal.
The “race” sectionals for leader at the sectional and leader (that is, winner) at the line for the two days reflect quick, and quickening, conditions, which involved a fairly strong tailwind.
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Using a four-furlong sectional effectively rules out meaningful figures for the two five-furlong races on the Friday, but Robot Boy broke the track record and Harvard Man posted a decidedly useful overall time for a two-year-old in holding the late surge of Ring of Truth by a short head. There were at least two highly promising efforts in defeat in other races, which both sectionals and “visuals” are unlikely to have missed.
Conditions may have been even quicker on the Saturday, and even the races that involved running into the wind for a significant portion produced quicker-than-good times. Firm going is nothing to be frightened of when the surface is otherwise safe.
Circumstances were set up for another course record in a notably strong-looking Greenham Stakes, but a course record by the best part of a second suggests the first two in that race went beyond expectations even so. The individual sectionals for the three Group 3s make for interesting comparisons.
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That Greenham Stakes was truly-run, but not overly-strongly-run by the look of it (those finishing speeds are all close to par). Runner-up Estidhkaar helped set the pace and came back for more when Muhaarar went past him. The pair finished clear of the very smart Ivawood and some other useful rivals.
In terms of overall times combined with sectionals, Muhaarar looks to have put up an exceptional performance, though suggestions are that he will be diverted to the French version of the 2000 Guineas to make best use of his undoubted speed.
In his absence, Estidhkaar (a
noteworthy performer on sectionals as a juvenile) looks a seriously good 2000 Guineas candidate: a rating of 126 is about the same as an average Guineas winner and is easily good enough to place in that race. A double-figure price ante-post is simply too big.
The fillies’ trial paled in comparison but may still have a bearing on what takes place at Newmarket in a couple of weeks’ time. The Fred Darling was less truly-run than the Greenham, but sectional upgrades have Redstart and Jellicle Ball not far behind what it usually takes to place in the 1000 Guineas.
The less-experienced Jellicle Ball, who had put up an
outstanding sectional when winning at Kempton on her only start as a two year-old, emerges best, if not by much, having raced a bit further back than Redstart. She still looks to have quite a bright future, whether it is at a mile or still further.
Arab Spring outperformed most of his stablemates recently in winning first time up, though that might not have been especially difficult in the John Porter by Group 3 standards, and the steady early pace probably played to his strengths.
He looks likely to be at least as good at a mile and a quarter as this mile and a half, and the speed he showed in the home straight was too much for his rivals, some of whom were coming back at the finish.
His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, excels with this type of horse, and Arab Spring should be up to winning in Group 2 company, if not necessarily among the crème de la crème.
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