By Timeform — published 18th February 2017
Stat Selector: Saturday February 18
Topofthegame - Ascot 13:15
Smart Stat: 2 - Paul Nicholls's number of winners in past 7 runnings
Not only has Paul Nicholls won this novice hurdle twice in recent years, with Sonofvic in 2011 and Arpege d'Alene in 2015, but he has a 21% strike rate overall at Ascot since the start of the 2011/12 season. Topofthegame is very interesting on form also as was green when making a winning hurdling debut over slightly further than today's distance at this track in mid-December and then improved when 10 and three quarter lengths fourth of 10 to Wholestone in the Grade 2 Classic Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, shaping better than the bare result too after travelling well for a long way. A huge gelding, described by Nicholls as one of the biggest he's trained, Topofthegame promises to improve again and looks worth backing, for all that useful Flat performer Beyond Conceit make a successful hurdling debut last month after 42 months off.
Templeross - Ascot 15:00
Smart Stat: £20.78 - Nigel Twiston-Davies's profit with hurdling favourites since the start of the 2011/12 season
The Timeform race report for the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton last month said that "this can't be anything but really solid handicap form" and so it has proved, with the third Lord of The Island and fifth Kalondra winning since, while the seventh and ninth have also finished placed since. This means Templeross, who did best o the rest behind winner Modus that day, looks interesting for today's 19-furlong handicap at Ascot, especially as Nigel Twiston-Davies shows a healthy profit with hurdling favourites over the last five seasons. It's a competitive race, undoubtedly, but Templeross remains lightly raced after five starts over timber and looks fairly treated off just a 3 lb higher mark (130) than in the Lanzarote.
Bon Enfant - Ascot 16:10
Smart Stat: 26% - Warren Greatrex's strike rate in the last 14 days
Bon Enfant will probably need to improve a bit to defy top weight in this staying handicap hurdle, but he could well produce the goods, especially with the Greatrex yard going so well. Bon Enfant had been in danger of going the wrong way until being perked up by first-time blinkers last time, when he finished three and a half lengths third of 14 to Tobefair (won again since, off 8 lb higher) in handicap at Warwick. Bon Enfant might have made even more of a race of it too had he kept straight off the bridle, and he finished with running left as he took third in the dying strides. Bon Enfant perhaps may not be 100% straightforward, but he's completely unexposed at around three miles and could be worth backing to return to winning ways.
