Timeform's View Sprint Cup Preview: Rex Imperator to dominate at Haydock Timeform's Matt Gardner looks ahead to Saturday's feature race, the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock... I'm going to start this article with a plug, not for anything I have produced myself but for Timeform colleague Jamie Lynch's ante-post preview podcast of the Haydock Sprint Cup, in which he puts forward an array of salient points. Jamie has largely done my job for me on this one as I am in total agreement with his selection, so I urge you to listen to the podcast by clicking HERE whilst I eulogise about my favourite horse in training, Rex Imperator. The suspicion is that 'Rexy' (as he is known, if only in my head) is yet to produce a performance that his talent entitles him to, and that includes his devastating triumph in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood. He has long been a horse of considerable ability and we saw flashes of that earlier in his career, notably when winning a decent Windsor handicap with abundant ease in June of last year and when shaping well in a strong race at Newmarket that same month. Having been sent home in disgrace from Dubai and transferred to the yard of William Haggas he was handed over to Gary Witheford, who specialises in horses with behavioural problems, and has since been on his best behaviour on the track with Witheford the man down at the start loading him into the stalls. An eyecatching effort over seven furlongs at Doncaster at the start of the season had many suggesting that he was nailed on for the Wokingham and, whilst he wasn't disgraced, he could only manage to finish sixth. However, connections have fitted him with cheekpieces since that day and his form has taken off, finding only the progressive Tropics too strong at Windsor before blowing the Stewards' Cup field apart last month. It was not only Rex Imperator's margin of victory, under a hefty BHA mark of 104, that is of note but also the style of his success in a race that combined both quantity and an abundance of quality. The latter trait was displayed in no uncertain terms by Rex Imperator himself as, with the entire the field under pressure a furlong and a half from home, he was still pulling Neil Callan's arms out of their sockets and when he was finally asked to quicken up it was with a deciveness that had the race won in a matter of strides. Rex Imperator, credited with a Timeform rating of 121 for that performance, has since finished second in a Group 3 at York but neither the soft ground nor the seven furlongs that day were ideal, and he also met with trouble from a loose horse, so that effort is well worth forgiving. Clearly Rex Imperator will need to improve again if he is to trouble Lethal Force and land this Group 1 but, as Jamie says in his podcast, Hoof It showed that you can make the jump from top-end handicapper to Group 1 performer when only narrowly denied in this race in 2011. Lethal Force aside Rex Imperator is very close to the top of the weight-adjusted ratings for this race, a fact which is not reflected in his generous price of [18.5]. A quick mention must go to my old mate Swiss Spirit, who I think I've tipped up without reward in every race he has contested this year. Fortune hasn't been in his favour and the ground scuppered his chance in the Nunthorpe at York, but his level seems to be established whilst Rex Imperator could yet develop into a top sprinter. Don't let me down Rexy! Recommendation: Back Rex Imperator @ [18.5] in the Sprint Cup
Winners tend to come from the top end of the market ... unlike York’s Nunthorpe Stakes, the preceding British Group 1 sprint, in which four of this weekend’s field competed. Indeed, just one winner – 25/1 Invincible Spirit on 2002 – has prevailed at bigger than 14/1 since 1988. That compares with three of the last four Nunthorpe winners being 20/1 or more.
I actually fancy Swiss Spirit for the Sprint Cup... He's been a bit unlucky in running this season. A bit of juice in the ground will help too and I remember him finishing like a train in the Temple Stakes at course. That was over 5 furlongs and I think 6 furlongs will be better for this big powerful horse.
Reckless Abandon is reported to be lame and will miss Saturday's Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock...!!! That's one more out of the way Ron...
Timeform's View Sectional Debrief, Kempton, Friday September 6 & Saturday September 7 Simon Rowlands has looked back over the good all-weather action at Kempton and identified a few horses to follow... All-weather fans had a taste of the future in recent days, with four successive cards at Kempton, culminating in a classy affair on Saturday which featured two Group 3s and a valuable handicap. We will soon be back to all-weather action taking place on most days, while Arena Racing's plan for a much-bolstered all-weather season and a valuable All-Weather Finals Day would mean more class and less dross for the winter game if it comes to fruition. Hopefully it will. please log in to view this image Friday's Kempton card saw winners averaging Timeform ratings of 87, so was hardly mundane, either. The first four races were truly-run or close to truly-run. Indeed, Midnight Feast went a bit too fast in the opener and faded into sixth, while the winner, Uppercut, came from second-last at the sectional. Runner-up Ocean Tempest led for much of the straight and can be marked up slightly, if not enough to be confident that he will break a string of five successive "close-but-no-cigar" efforts next time. There was a fairly big sectional eye-catcher in the second race in the form of fourth-placed Kingdom's Call, who was hopelessly green but still ran the last 3f easily quickest (about 35.55s) and can be rated best in the race. A mediocre overall race time is the only thing that tempers enthusiasm slightly. Runner-up Laugharne (36.15s) and seventh-placed Rochambeau (36.05s) were next quickest and almost joined Kingdom's Call on the sectional "to follow" list. Charles Molson (35.1s last 3f, despite having to wait for a run) was possibly unlucky not to beat Mystique Rider in race 3 and should be a tough nut to crack next time at 5f/6f. Basil Berry landed some decent bets for the shrewd Chris Dwyer team in the nursery and finished strongly enough (34.85s) to suggest he had the best part of another length up his sleeve. The remaining races on Friday were falsely-run affairs, resulting in sprint finishes. In normal circumstances, Castillo del Diablo would be a certainty to make the "to follow" list. He recorded a remarkable 34.45s for the last 3f to come from last to second behind Cat O'Mountain (who was not hanging around himself) and could be rated several lengths better than the result. However, there are doubts about his temperament (raced lazily in first-time blinkers here), so he should be respected but not definitely backed. please log in to view this image The average Timeform rating of winners on Saturday was 98, with the September Stakes success of Prince Bishop and the Sirenia Stakes success of Brown Sugar rating over 110 on form. Both wins were backed up by reasonable times, and in Prince Bishop's case that was despite the pace being sub-optimal. A final 3f of 35.35s suggests he may still be as good as when putting up one of the handicap performances of the year in victory at Meydan in January. Brown Sugar ran efficiently, and the fact that Figure of Speech made up nearly two lengths from the sectional and failed narrowly speaks in the latter's favour. It should not be forgotten, however, that the winner was giving weight all round. Hors de Combat, runner-up in the opener, would have a good chance of reversing placings with Evening Attire another day, coming home in a fast 34.05s but just unable to get past the quickening winner. Graphic's winning time looks a good one and was achieved in a style close to optimum, with never-nearer third Loving Spirit getting the biggest sectional mark-up (the latter seems a better place than win proposition, however). Jazz Master's time was respectable, and the way he finished (last 3f of 35.4s) suggests he may follow up. He is unlikely to be missed by many, however, having strung out his rivals. Ballinderry Boy got a well-judged ride from the front but put sufficient distance between himself and the others to suggest he was best anyway. The penultimate race on Saturday provided the truest pace test, and Footstepsintherain raced efficiently in mid-field before leading late on. The final race turned up another one for the "to follow" list in third-placed Extrasolar, who ran the last 3f of a rather steadily-run race fastest (35.0s) but was emptying by the end. He should be at least as effective returned to 6f as at this 7f. Full form ratings and time ratings to accompany these sectional observations can be found in Race Passes on the Timeform site. To follow: Kingdom's Call, Charles Molson and Extrasolar
Ayr Gold Cup Preview: Easterby's charge can get back in the swing Keith Melrose explains why Timeform reckon there could be another shot at glory for a one-time Group 1 challenger in Saturday's Ayr Gold Cup... Fans of the sporting comeback will have found no more fertile ground in recent years than golf's Open Championship. The three most recent winners of the Claret Jug- Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Darren Clarke- have all been of a similar stripe, albeit in differing shades: men ostensibly past their best who, following a spark of resurgence, put it all together to land another big prize. Golf's world number 17 Lee Westwood can take heart from recent Open history; not just in his own pursuit of a Major title, but also in the case of his main equine interest Hoof It, whom he owns jointly with his manager 'Chubby' Chandler. Hoof It made his name a couple of summers back, winning the SkyBet six days after his owners' good friend Clarke took the Open and following it up a week later with a stunning success in the Stewards' Cup. That was described by Timeform at the time as being a Group 1 performance in a handicap, but frustration was to follow in the biggest races: Hoof It was drawn on the wrong side when finishing sixth in the Nunthorpe next time and was arguably unlucky when squeezed out in Dream Ahead's Sprint Cup. The 2012 season was essentially a write-off for Hoof It, and it looked as though the glory days might be gone for good when he made a laboured reappearance this summer at York. The subsequent recovery has been gradual; rather covert at first in the Stewards' Cup and the Great St. Wilfrid (met trouble in both) but plain to see in the Sprint Cup, when a more positive ride saw him finish third to Gordon Lord Byron. That effort at Haydock was still quite a way shy of Hoof It's very best form, but he needn't fully rediscover that level if he's to win at Ayr. He routed that Stewards' Cup field two years ago from a BHA mark of 111; now he needs only to win by a flared nostril from 107 to secure a return on odds which, at the time of writing, stand at [18.0]. That looks a good price about such a plainly well-handicapped horse, especially if the rain doesn't arrive to the degree forecast and rider Graham Gibbons is in the same positive frame of mind as he was at Haydock. There are, of course, dangers among Hoof It's rivals, currently 209-strong. The market has Jack Dexter as the one to beat. He's a dependable sprinter who has graduated from winning the Bronze Cup last year to Group 3 success on his latest start, but he's not been quite as progressive of late as that might imply and he'll need to step up if he's to defy a BHA mark of 110. More threatening than Jack Dexter could be the unexposed pair immediately behind him in the betting. Baccarat comes here with a fine record to date, which includes success in the Great St Wilfrid last time on just his eighth start. He's gone up 7 lb for coming clear with the in-form Spinatrix on that occasion, which if taken at face value underplays what he achieved. The strong-travelling Tropics is also well worthy of consideration. He was halfway to doing a Hoof It earlier this summer, winning the Sky Bet and going off favourite for the Stewards' Cup the following Saturday only to finish an admittedly respectable sixth at Goodwood. He has since got back on track by winning a listed race at Newmarket and has a racing style which should show him to best effect in these big-field handicaps. Just like in the Open, it's generally been experience that has counted for most in recent Ayr Gold Cups with seasoned, well-handicapped sorts regularly coming out on top. Hoof It has already shown his resurgence to be well underway and, in the mould of Messrs Clarke, Els and Mickelson, can crown it with success in Europe's richest sprint handicap. Recommendation: Back Hoof It @ [18.0] in the Ayr Gold Cup
The Timeform Large 'P' Of the various symbols, the best-known is probably the squiggle (§)—or the “dreaded Timeform squiggle” to give it its full title—which denotes a horse which is viewed as unreliable for “temperamental or other reasons”. Another common and well-known symbol that sometimes accompanies a Timeform rating is the Timeform small ‘p’, which denotes horses considered to be capable of better form than they have shown so far. P The Timeform large ‘P’ is an extension of this principle and is used much more sparingly, reserved for those horses considered by the Timeform editorial team as ‘capable of much better form’. From over 11,000 horses included in Racehorses of 2012, Timeform’s latest Annual that covers every horse that ran during the British Flat racing year, only a select 16 had a large ‘P’ attached to their rating, and a look at their exploits this year is illuminating. 11 of the 16 have gone on to win a race in 2013 (more than one in some cases), and of the remaining five, three have failed to make it to track so far this year (Theatre, Shababeek and Sir Walter Scott) and one of the remaining duo, Mars, has improved his rating by some 18 lb despite failing to make it into the winner’s enclosure. A quick scan of the Timeform database shows there are currently 17 Flat horses with a large ‘P’ attached to their rating (including the three mentioned above), and below we take a closer look at some of them and assess their prospects. Aside from Sir Walter Scott and Theatre, Aidan O’Brien is represented on the list by two-year-colt Agena (90P), who landed a seven-furlong maiden on his debut at Leopardstown last weekend. Of the two Ballydoyle newcomers in the race, Agena seemingly wasn’t the more fancied, ridden by Seamie Heffernan and sent off at 10/1 behind odds-on stablemate Masai, the mount of Joseph O’Brien, but he created a very favourable impression in coming from an unpromising position to narrowly land the spoils from He’s No Saint (runner-up in a similar event on his previous start), with Masai back in third. Deciphering the pecking order among the Ballydoyle two-year-olds is tricky at the best of times, but it will be surprising if Agena isn’t up to making his presence felt in stronger company—he’s entered in the Racing Post Trophy, a race his yard have tended to aim their prospective Derby candidates at in recent years, and although Agena’s pedigree is somewhat mixed (by Galileo out of a five-furlong winner), his sire’s influence means he should stay at least a mile. In ratings terms, John Gosden’s Kingman leads the way, and that he still has a large ‘P’ when already rated 112 suggests he’s a very good prospect. Rated 106P after an impressive debut success at Newmarket, when beating two next-time-out winners, Kingman took the step up in class in his stride when landing the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown on late-August, beating Emirates Flyer by two lengths, showing an impressive turn of foot in a steadily-run race. Kingman’s form is still a bit behind the leading juveniles as things stand, but that’s about opportunity as much as anything, and the likelihood is that Kingman will show very smart form when the opportunity presents itself, most likely in either the Dewhurst or Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere next. He’s as good a candidate for the 2000 Guineas seen this side of the Irish Sea. The large ‘P’ isn’t just the preserve of well-bred maiden winners, however. It can be just as rewarding looking for those who have shaped a lot better than a down-the-field finish would suggest, and two who fit into that category are Mountain Lion (69P) and Humour (52P). The Saeed bin Suroor-trained Mountain Lion showed plenty to work on when fifth on his debut over seven and a half furlongs at Chester despite little going right for him in the race, coming home well without being knocked about. He’s one to look out for in maiden company, as is Roger Varian’s colt Humour. The Highclere Racing website reports Humour met with a setback in training, which explains why he hasn't been seen on the racecourse since his debut back in May, but that came in what has proved a fairly stong maiden at York’s Dante meeting (won by Parbold), and he shaped a lot better than a tenth-placed finish suggests, needing the experience but still making good headway after halfway, not knocked about as his effort flattened out. Assuming the problem he's had isn't too significant he can be expected to leave that effort well behind when making his return to action.
Timeform's View Handicappers' Corner: Miss France another beauty for Fabre The Cambridgeshire meeting hosted the Group 1 Cheveley Park and Fillies' Mile on Saturday but this year it was another race on the card that produced the most significant performance. David Johnson explains... More will be heard of Miss France, that is for sure. Agents for Marine Lorphelin, winner of the latest renewal of the beauty pageant founded in 1920 by Maurice de Waleffe need not unduly concern themselves, as it is the Andre Fabre-trained filly that is more likely to be dominating the headlines in 2014. Miss France came into the Oh So Sharp Stakes with just a couple of runs behind her, well held on her debut before winning a fillies minor event at Chantilly late last month. She now finds herself towards the head of the 1000 Guineas betting and also Timeform's highest-rated European 2-y-o filly, with a figure of 114p. Although only a Group 3 contest, the form Miss France showed in pulling well clear with Lightning Thunder is in advance of that shown subsequently at Newmarket at the weekend by the Fillies' Mile and Cheveley Park winners Chriselliam and Vorda. Miss France and Lightning Thunder both earned bare form ratings of 110, figures towards the high end of those suggested by historical standards, and more than confirmed by the overall race time. The timefigure takes an even higher view, rating both Miss France and Lightning Thunder 116. Miss France was value for more than the bare margin of a head, and that has been built into her updated master rating, a rating of 114p the highest awarded to the winner of the Oh So Sharp Stakes, which was upgraded from listed status in 2007. Later that afternoon, Chriselliam caused a surprise to win the Fillies' Mile, sweeping through from rear in a steadily-run race to run down the favourite, Rizeena, the style of the win suggesting she was full value for it. The Fillies' Mile is pretty straightforward to assess, historical standards giving a relatively close range of 110-114 with prior-rating standards pointing to a figure of 112. This was the third time the race has been run at Newmarket since switched permanently from Ascot, and a figure in the low 110s certainly points to it being a fairly typical, unremarkable renewal. Similar comments apply to the Cheveley Park Stakes, which like the Fillies' Mile wasn't truly run, as shown by the fact that the winning timefigure of 88 was some 24 lb shy of the winning form figure of 112. Following on from the Oh So Sharp Stakes, this proved another pattern-race victory for France as favourite Vorda, last seen when chasing home No Nay Never in the Morny, landed the spoils in comfortable fashion. A winning rating of 112 fits within the acceptable parameters of race standards (106-113), but in historical terms, the figure is ordinary, better than Rosdhu Queen (107+) last year, but some way below the likes of Hooray (121) in 2010 and Special Duty (118) in 2009. Vorda is likely to be seen again this autumn with the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' mooted as a target, but it has to be doubted whether she has the stamina for a mile, even on the tight Santa Anita turf track. The pattern races for the juvenile colts at the meeting don't strike as being form to rate highly, Miracle of Medina getting the run of things in the Somerville Tattersalls Stakes, and his winning figure of 103 was the third lowest since the turn of the century. The bare form of the Royal Lodge also looks rather suspect for all that it was two smart colts that ultimately filled the first two places. Berkshire hadn't been seen since his win in the Chesham at Royal Ascot which had been boosted numerous times since, while Somewhat had been an impressive winner of the Washington Singer last time. The proximity of the beaten horses means it's unlikely either of that pair ran up to their best, and a performance rating of 107 for Berkshire on Saturday is the lowest allotted to a Royal Lodge winner since 1992. Sir Jack Layden wasn't obviously flattered, but the fact that he was rated only 88 coming into the race, having been beaten in nursery company, suggests his rating of 106 is best treated with some caution. Berkshire remains on 112p and Somewhat on 114. Later on Saturday, the Sun Chariot hosted the latest instalment of Elusive Kate v Sky Lantern, and it was the latter that got revenge for her defeat in the Falmouth. Sky Lantern has maintained her form admirably all year, on the go since the Nell Gwyn and showed she's at least as good as ever, recording a figure of 122 on Saturday. That wasn't the only significant 3-y-o 1m+ race at the meeting with the Group 2 Joel Stakes on Friday seeing Soft Falling Rain put up a Group 1 performance. Soft Falling Rain increased his rating to 131 with his three-and-a-half length success over Montiridge, doing well to maintain his effort given how he raced closer to an overly-strong pace than the runner-up. A rating of 131 is the highest awarded to a winner of the Joel Stakes since 1990, and it sets up a fantastic QEII on Champions' Day should Toronado, Dawn Approach and/or Olympic Glory turn up as well.
Jamie Lynch's Autumn Racing A-Z please log in to view this image A to Z, an alphabetically arranged reference work presenting all the facts and information about something; OR, the last refuge of a spent scribe who's struggling to marry content with structure. So here it is, Jamie Lynch's A to Z of the autumn, racing's harvest season...... A is for Arc de Triomphe, still the best race in the world on Timeform recent standards, a bar set to be raised higher still by this year's stellar field*. The average rating of the Arc winner in the last decade is 129; Sunday's renewal has two horses already above that level - see 'N' and 'O' - and a further six within 3 lbs. An anagram of Arc de Triomphe is 'primed hot race'. C'est vrai, very vrai. *having obtained copyright from the 1965 Arc, the phrase 'stellar field' or 'star-studded field' must, by law, be used by every pundit to describe this year's race. B is for Breeders' Cup, the Star Wars of racing; blew the mind and changed the game on arrival, way ahead of its time, and though diluted since by the franchise and various reincarnations, it still has huge pulling-power and a resonance beyond the genre. C is for Champion Stakes, which this year is the poor relation in the cyclical family of global championships, the top horses in Europe being either milers or mile-and-a-halfers. But we can look back at Frankel, as well as look forward to Mukhadram, which translates from Arabic as: the predator in a sea bereft of big fish. Something like that, anyway. D is for Dank. A passport to probable smug and possible riches. Take the 9/2 about Dank for the Filly & Mare Turf, then hope, pray and politely ask John Gosden to run 'F' in the Turf itself against the boys. If that scenario does play out, then you'll be sitting pretty on virtually an odds-on shot. E is for Ertijaal, one of the best two-year-olds in Europe by proxy. The best by rating is Toormore, winner of the Vintage and National Stakes, and Ertijaal ran him to a neck when both made their debut in the spring. Standing entries in the Middle Park and Dewhurst suggest that, this autumn, Ertijaal could yet make a big announcement with his own voice rather Toormore's. F is for Fugue, The. When I was just a little boy, I asked Lloyd Webber what would it be? Would it be Paris, Ascot or States? Here's what he said to me: She's a tank, a tank. We're taking her overseas, Aiming higher than just fillies, Have the bank on Dank. G is for Game On Dude. Second only to 'W' in the current hierarchy of American thoroughbreds, Game On Dude is better than ever this year, with a perfect five out of five, and he's rightly favourite to exorcise the ghost of the last two Breeders' Cup Classics. H is for Heads, two being better than one in France; Criquette is masterminding Treve's Arc attack, while brother Freddie is putting the finishing touches to the finishing touches of Moonlight Cloud, her swansong in the Foret on Sunday. That Alec Head was a proper sire. I is for It's A Dundeel, the rising star of Australia. The shadow of Black Caviar still looms over everything equine Down Under, and It's A Dundeel has been mentioned in the same breath as Black Caviar, more so after he beat Atlantic Jewel, who was supposed to be the new Black Caviar. It's A Dundeel won't contest the Melbourne Cup, but he's all out to win the Cox Plate, and, according to the rumour mill, we may well see him at Royal Ascot next year. J is for Jean-Luc Lagardere, the pre-eminent prix for two-year-olds in France, to be won this year by... K is for Kingman. L is for Let Em Shine. Ernie might have been the fastest milkman in the west, but Let Em Shine looks the fastest racehorse in the west, or the east for that matter. The Breeders' Cup Sprint winner. M is for Melbourne Cup, as well as Mount Athos, the two intertwined in one man's obsession with one nation's posession. The Melbourne Cup is the Roadrunner to Luca Cumani's Coyote, each near-miss intensifying the yearning. After seconds with Purple Moon in 2007 (half a length) and Bauer in 2008 (nose), Cumani took Mount Athos to Flemington last year more in expectation than hope, only to be scuppered by circumstances out of his control, chiefly the slow pace. Getting so close to Harris Tweed at Goodwood, giving him a start and 5 lb, belatedly showed that Mount Athos is the same horse, and he has the same weight for the Cup, meaning Cumani's wait for the Cup could be over. N is for Novellist. Forget that he's a galloping machine, or that he's unbeaten this season, or that he won the King George by five lengths, or that he smashed the course record by over two seconds in the process, or that his positive style gives him a tactical edge over the other Arc principals; two words are all that's needed to persuade you that Novellist will probably win: Johnny Murtagh. O is for Orfevre. Niles: 'There's nothing better than an exquisite meal.' Frasier: 'How about an exquisite meal, with a tiny flaw we can pick at all night.' The same principle applies to Orfevre, a pundit's dream. P is for Pletcher, Todd. Nowadays, when a smart horse emerges in the US, more often than not the trainer behind it is Todd Pletcher, who's fast becoming a phenomenon. He's got the highest-rated three-year-old colt (Verrazano) and filly (Princess of Sylmar) in the US, a number of top older horses such as Cross Traffic and Graydar, as well as a raft of promising juveniles, and one or several of the Todd squad will this year add to his current Breeders' Cup total of seven wins. Q is for QEII. More royalties for Sea-Bird here, as if the Arc field is stellar or star-studded, the QEII is potentially uber-steller or superstar-studded. As mentioned earlier, the Arc includes two horses rated 130+, but the QEII could have as many as five. Dawn Approach versus Toronado has been the story of the season, but the pair, who both disappointed when last seen on the track, may face challengers of a very different kind than before in the shape of Farhh and, in particular, Soft Falling Rain. The QEII is prospectively the race of 2013, anywhere in the world. R is for Richard and Ryan. Whether or not the denouement to the jockeys' championship is more Lost than Homeland, there surely has been few more talented riders in the history of the sport than Hughes and Moore, both a joy to watch. S is for Strong Mandate. No Nay Never has taken the European juvenile scene by storm, but there's another US two-year-old, operating at home, who has an even higher Timeform rating, namely Strong Mandate, the winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes by almost ten lengths. Strong Mandate is trained by the legendary D. Wayne Lukas, tutor of, amongst others, a certain T. Pletcher. T is for tweed and a reminder that, though the autumn is the awards season for the Flat, it's also the time of the year when the jumps begins its take off. On the same day as the Breeders' Cup Classic is the Charlie Hall Chase. U is for unexpected. Expect it. The autumn means sensational racing, but it also means a surprising result or two along the way. The form book doesn't go out of the window, but it can go out of synch. V is for Veale, Ted. He's got the form, profile and trainer of a horse who could easily be 4/1 favourite on the day of the Cesarewitch. W is for Wise Dan. The best horse on the planet, according to Timeform. In Britain, turd is a slightly dirty word. In America, turf is a slightly dirty word, hence there's something of an underappreciation over there as to just how spectacular Wise Dan is. You'll see for yourselves when he wins a second Breeders' Cup Mile. X is for xenophobia, the healthy xenophobia, the sort of xenephobia on which international competition thrives, in turn taking horseracing to a different level in the autumn. Y is for yen, principally the yen that will be exchanged for euros and poured into the Paris Mutuel, mostly on Orfevre and Kizuna, while the added element of xenephobia might, just might, mean that backing Deutschland's finest, Novellist, on the PMU is the way to play it. Danedream's return was 27/1 in 2011. Z is for...erm...Zenyatta? Tenuous, yes, but if, in the coming weeks, we get a story, or a finish, or a commentary as memorable as the 2010 Classic then, as far its responsibility to racing goes, the autumn will be largely blame free, much like that commentary. 'Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Blame, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Blame.'
I passed on this earlier but really Phil Bull must be turning in his grave. What do they think the racing public are, a bunch of muppets?
I never shoot the messenger. But you know what I mean Ron. Timeform was once a bastion of rigorously-argued, good sense. It now appears to have become a comic.
please log in to view this image Treve joins the greats with stunning win A fantastic weekend of action at Longchamp, headed by Treve's victory in the main event, is analysed by David Johnson in our regular feature... In the past few seasons horseracing fans have been lucky enough to witness a selection of astounding visual performances that were backed up by top-class achievement. Frankel was responsible for a number of them, notably his win in the 2000 Guineas, while Harbinger's 11-length success in the King George also springs to mind. Treve's victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday sits comfortably in that bracket. Treve's wide margin success was achieved despite a number of things seeming against her, notably the fact she sweated up beforehand, and failed to settle in the early stages, but given a fantastic ride by Thierry Jarnet, she was able to overcome that. Treve has been allotted a rating of 134 for winning the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, in a result that looks relatively solid amongst the principals. Orfevre filled the runner-up spot again, but nothing like as unfortunate as twelve months ago and he has run up to his pre-race figure of 130 while the third Intello improves slightly from 126 to 129, with Kizuna running to his pre-race figure of 126 in fourth. The muddling pace causes some issues further back, and some horses are likely to prove flattered by their proximity, notably Sahawar who appears to have run to a figure of 118 having been rated 106 beforehand, but this is hardly a new phenomenon where the Arc is concerned, as the proximity of the likes of La Boum to Sea The Stars and It's Gino to Zarkava testify. It is for reasons like this that Timeform do not rely on the final margins between horses at the finish as the sole arbiter to calculating ratings to reflect merit, but where possible, makes use of sectional timing data (read Simon Rowlands' Sectional Debrief), and other handicapping techniques, such as positional handicapping. This method, handicapping according to finishing position, rather than purely on margins beaten has been in use for a long time at Timeform and its purpose is to reflect the "correct" order in the horses' master ratings if they were to meet again under similar conditions. The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe has witnessed a number of stellar performances down the years, the likes of Ribot (1956), Sea-Bird (1965), Mill Reef (1971) and Dancing Brave (1986) all posting ratings of 140 or higher for their victories, and though some way off that level, a rating of 134 for Treve is the highest figure awarded to a filly or mare for winning the race in over sixty years, superior to the likes of Allez France (132, 1974), Three Troikas (133, 1979), and more recently Zarkava (130, 2008) and Danedream (132, 2011) and behind only the 1949 winner Coronation (135). Although her career only stretches to five races so far, Treve has already done enough to be considered one of the all-time greats among her own sex, and it is to be hoped she can enhance her reputation further as a four-year-old if kept in training, which seems likely at this stage. Racegoers were rather spoilt at Longchamp on Sunday, as just less than an hour and a half after Treve's success, Moonlight Cloud showed a blistering turn of foot to win the Prix de la Foret. In a race run at a different tempo to the Arc, the pace was much stronger, Moonlight Cloud was still a most impressive winner sweeping from last to first to beat Gordon Lord Byron by 3 lengths. In terms of form Moonlight Cloud barely had to improve, with her master rating increased slightly to 129, but it has had the '+' symbol added to it and she certainly gave the impression there was even more to come if required. Rounding up the rest of the Group 1 action at Longchamp, Maarek gained a first success at the top level at the age of six, running to 120, returning to the form he showed when successful in the Champions Sprint at Ascot last year. Maarek was arguably slightly fortunate on the day, picking up the leaders as they wilted late on, while Catcall would probably have won if his rider had been able to delay his challenge for longer, but Maarek is a consistent performer when he gets a strong pace to run at and cut in the ground, and he won't be one to underestimate back at Ascot in a couple of weeks. The Prix Marcel Boussac went to Indonesienne, who had chased home subsequent Oh So Sharp winner Miss France on her previous start, and though improving markedly to record a figure of 112, she may not prove the best filly in time. That accolade can go to runner-up Lesstalk In Paris who made most at a strong pace before being worn down late on. She earns a rating of 110p. There is little doubting that the best horse won the colts juvenile Group 1, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, Karakontie earning a rating of 115p for his victory while similar comments apply in the Prix du Cadran, Altano running to a career-high mark of 122. The Prix de l'Opera was by no means a strong renewal, and Dalkala only had to reproduce her pre-race rating of 115 to land a narrow victory. A performance that could have more short term relevance was that of Cirrus Des Aigles who won the Prix Dollar for the third time. Having suffered an injury following his second to Frankel in last season's Champion Stakes, he hasn't looked quite the force of old, but his performance on Saturday was his best yet of the year, and his rating is back up to 128+. Finally, rather in the shade of Longchamp, Ascot held its penultimate Flat fixture of the year on Saturday, the Cornwallis the highlight, in which Hot Streak put up a tremendous performance, both when measured against his rivals and the clock. Hot Streak beat Outer Space by 5 lengths in a time almost half a second quicker than the listed class older horses put up in the first race, earning a form rating of 120p, and an even higher timefigure of 125. A reproduction of that would make him the one to beat in the Middle Park should he turn out quickly.
There appears to be a complete inconsistency between the arguments made in this analysis of Sunday’s events at Longchamp and the methods that Timeform report to use in their calculations. The “pre-race figure of 126” credited to Kizuna looks very generous and is being used to anchor the performance of the first three. Whilst the pace of the race bore most similarity to the Prix Niel and might suggest that Kizuna ran to his figure, the increased rating suggested for Intello totally ignores the fact that it was not a truly run race. In the strongly run Prix de la Forêt, Moonlight Cloud certainly justified her rating coming from the rear with a late dash to conquer Gordon Lord Byron in a race that was set up by Garswood, on whom Ryan Moore was presumably instructed to go for home early. I do share their reservations about the Prix Marcel Boussac winner Indonesienne, who franked the form of Newmarket winner Miss France, not just because Lesstalk In Paris had looked all over the winner but the owner’s first colours were worn by Freddie Head’s unbeaten Royalmania. Japanese-bred Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner Karakontie does look like a name for the notebook. Presumably Timeform will be tipping Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes given their comments on his performance on Saturday.
