Daily Racing Thread Thursday 9th. September 2021

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Ever Given is a bit of a veteran of these valuable sales races. He ran well in Ireland behind Sacred Bridge when 4th and that filly went on to slam her field next time in the Group 3 Round Tower. Ever Given then went on to win a good pot at York, where my pick for that race, Wings Of War, was 3rd. Now rated 97, Ever Given is the highest rated in the field for today's race on 97. Those are all positives, so what about the downsides?

Ever Given only had a neck to spare over Atomic Lady last time out and that filly was thumped six lengths when 3rd to Flotus in a Listed race next time out running a race 7 lbs lower than she had run behind Ever Given, based on Racing Post Ratings for the two races. Wings Of War went on to be runner up in a Group 3 next time but he split runners rated 85 and 88 that day. The winner of that Group 3 had come into it dropped from 89 to 85, for being turned over at odds-on in a Class 5 Novice the time before and in theory Wings Of War had 11 lbs in hand on bare ratings with his 96 figure. These are form lines that seem to question Ever Given being raised 4 lbs for his most recent win. If that is the case, he no longer tops the ratings today.

The next highest rated is Harrow, an Andrew Balding colt who took 4 goes to shed his maiden status but he has now won his last two races. I am not sure his latest Nursery win was worthy of being raised 10 lbs for though, There is a certain level of solidity about the form but I am not sure I would be backing for a hat trick today if this were another Nursery and he was trying to defy a rise of that margin.

System had been shaping well after two starts but was then thrown in at the deep end. She wasn't totally outgunned that day but was poor behind Ever Given last time and it is hard to envisage a reversal from an 8 length defeat when only 2 lbs better in today. Racing Post Ratings have her only 1 lb behind Ever Given but that looked miles from the truth last time they met and System needs a major bounce back from that.

I found myself drawn to Jazz Club, the Varian trained colt made a low key start when 5th on debut but ran quite a bit better when 3rd next time. His latest start was a cosy win which represented another lump of improvement. The fitting of blinkers now would suggest they feel there is more to come and Ryan Moore is riding for the Magnier, Smith, Tabor et al conglomerate and while the pot here is pocket money for them, perhaps a wee wager might be of benefit to them. I feel Jazz Club can improve again and may be closer to the favourite Ever Given than the 10 lbs difference in official ratings might suggest.

Roger Varian has won two of the last four runnings of the race and Jazz Club is drawn 7 in a contest where low draws have won the last 4 renewals. Ever Given is drawn in box 3 and is a solid danger, so a reverse forecast seemed in order.

Symphony Perfect looks a realistic contender from trap 1 at 11/1 and six places available, so she was added as the third party for perms.

2.10 Doncaster Jazz Club 5/1

Jazz Club/Ever Given RF

Jazz Club/Ever Given/Symphony Perfect Combined Tri
 
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Hello, troops. Nothing for me today but I guess the punting question of the day is will the 2 Gosden fillies oblige in the pair of Group 2 contests up at Donny??? Sure to be a few doubles floating around on that pair today I would have thought. Re that meet though am rather obsessed by the concluding contest, the 'lucky last', and in fact every single time I look at it I change my bally mind re the likely winner! Any quotes available re a triple, I say triple, dead-heat?!?

Meanwhile, at yesterday's Goffs sale I see that old rogue, Adjali, was sold for £13,000. If new connections can get the old boys head right they might, just might, have a bit of a bargain there, methinks.

Good luck all.
 
Ever Given is 2/1 now. Having opened at 9/2, I think he is desperately short now. Harrow is also popular, generally 7/2 and they can't both win, so someone will be disappointed.

Plenty big prices on some of the field, as many are drifting. With six places each-way SkyBet, there is a probability that something will place at massive odds. It won't be 250/1 shot Nooo More though. The Gay Kelleway runner has an OR of 44 and you would wonder why he is here. Nooo More? Nooo Hope more like.
 
In the Nursery at 1.40 I felt Daiquiri Francais looked on a good mark of 78. The Havana Gold filly dwelt at the start on debut and never got involved but picked up a chunk next time in winning at Windsor as an 18/1 shot. She went back to Windsor at more prohibitive odds of 1/3 to bring up the double and while that didn't rate quite as well as her previous win based on RPRs the ground was Heavy that day. Runner up from that latter race has won twice since and winners also came from the earlier win, where Daiquiri Francais wandered about a bit before knuckling down and coming through late.

Based on Daiquiri Francais' first win, the extra half furlong today should suit her and I expect her to go close.

Summers Day won last time but that was more or less a match race and her main rival never got a clear run. I am a bit dubious that the Godolphin filly can give the selection 3 lbs.

Dora Penny has been winning her share this season but is 7 lbs higher than her earlier Nursery win came from.

Gnat Alley looked ready for 6F last time, having run all four races at 5F so far. I felt the Easterby filly may be on a workable mark on 65. I took her to be the danger.

1.40 Doncaster Daiquiri Francais 4/1

Daiquiri Francais/Gnat Alley RF
 
Here's my picks for today's competition, run by... err.. oh well, never mind...

1:10 - Mountain Brave, 6/1
1:40 - Allayaali, 11/1
2:10 - Symphony Perfect, 16/1
2:40 - Speak, 7/1
3:15 - Yesyes, 4/1
3:45 - Modern News, 5/4
4:15 - Harrovian, 9/4

Good luck if your playing, mine are just for amusement as the days passes me by at work...<ok><cheers>
 
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No price at all on Inspiral today but hopefully she can convert to enhance her ante-post position for other races. I have been with her for the Guineas ever since her win last time and also felt that she was likely to shorten for the Fillies Mile later this season. There seems a lack of Aidan O'Brien representation in the 2YO fillies division this season and although Inspiral was only 3/1 for the Fillies Mile, it seemed a likely one way ticket that would see her shorter, potentially markedly so come the day.

Backed into 10/1 and shorter for the Guineas now and 2/1 for the Fillies Mile, we will see if that preemptive cutting was justified this afternoon. We could be doing with an exciting filly emerging and fingers crossed that she can prove herself the leader of the pack at 2.40.
 
Disappointing effort from Daiquiri Francais there. I felt that she would be involved but it just wasn't to be. Gnat Alley ran OK in 4th but seemed outpaced today. The winner had been 15 lengths behind Inspiral last time and failed to match her first race by some 20 lbs but the Hills stable are going well and she bounced back today after being tried too highly last time.

I have watched Jazz Club's race back and cannot fathom what happened. He hit the front and looked to have established a winning lead but he seemed to curl up in front. The funny thing was that he seemed to knuckle down once passed and stayed on again in third. That was a very strange run and I thought I had the winner for sure there. Harrow just denied Ever Given. I thought both were too short. My comb tricast selections were second, 3rd and 5th. Symphony Perfect was 5th and managed to fulfil the ew six places. I thought a big one would place and it was Luna Queen, who was 4th at 150/1.

Inspiral did the business and is 6/4 for the Fillies Mile and 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas now.
 
After Harrow winning, it seemed inevitable that Harrovian would pull of the double and he did. He also pulled off the old "Back the outsider in a three horse race" theory as 7/2 3rd best in the betting.

Earlier, Free Wind looked like she could have won this year's St Leger. She hosed up by 7 lengths in a fast time and surely rates up there with the best stayers in the 3YO ranks this year. Pity we will instead be watching no hopers taking Hurricane Lane on instead in a dire looking Leger.
 
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