Ok let me try today.
Lingfield
This January by draw
Draw Runners Winners Win S/R PRB
1 9 0 0 39.37
2 9 0 0 36.99
3 9 0 0 57.8
4 9 1 11.11 36.93
5 9 2 22.22 62.1
6 9 1 11.11 57.25
7 9 3 33.33 66.58
8 9 0 0 29.23
9 6 2 33.33 53.01
10 3 0 0 85.19
The averages for January for the last five years are
Stall 1,2,3 - 13% each
but what is interesting is if you switch it to where the going is slower than usual (so harrowed deeper due to the weather)
Stall 1 - 6%
Stall 2 - 4.5%
Stall 3 - 13%
So does this mean we are wanting to avoid the inside rail?
Let's find out further today.
11:58 - Knockbrex and Vibrato are likely pace angles, with Vibrato the more consistent in running style. So does this mean he will have to cross over onto the rail? Hitched and Epsom Faithfull are both interesting with good Lingfield form. Epsom Faithfull has the better form at the trip of the two, and could be an interesting bet.
12:28 - Paradoxical has stall 2, which makes this interesting. Good course form of Lost In Time is in stall 1 too. This could test the hypothesis!! Forge Valley Lad is interesting, drawn wider, has course, distance and class form. He has been running OK recently too and with luck in running he may be finishing well down the outside here.
12:58 - small field race with the favourite drawn widest of the four. Move on.
13:28 - Maiden stakes. Move on.
13:58 - Decent sized field, with two with recent winning form in stalls 8 and 9. I don't like betting in these ex-nursery races.
14:32 - A race with a lack of pace. This looks really interesting on paper due to this. Starshiba won nicely last time, is drawn wide and has the held up running style. What isn't to like? Surprised he isn't the favourite here.
15:07 - Another decent sized field. This looks set to be run at a more predictable pace, and that is really useful for judging the potential of the field. Laurentia in this has form with the earlier selection Forge Valley Lad, when Laurentia was held up at rear in a race won by Bearaway. The interesting thing that day was that Laurentia clocked the fastest furlong of the race with a 11.18 second furlong between 3 and 2 furlongs from home. This suggests that the race wasn't run to suit the horse and that the pace shown was not utilised to the best effect. Perhaps he could do that today!
15:39 - Another decent field size. Again it should be run at a fairly decent pace, with Danehill Star and Major Major two pace angles. Send In The Clouds is interesting here. Stepped up to 1m6 on his return from a break, he didn't get involved. He has then been off a year. He now comes back down to a more suitable trip, where he has a 1 from 3 record (with another place). He has won in this class multiple times and he has a decent course run in the book. One to watch in the market, shame we don't have the dead 8 runners.
So I am going
Epsom Faithfull 1pt @ 7/2
Forge Valley Lad 1pt @ 9/2
Starshiba 1pt @ 9/4
Laurentia 0.5pt EW @ 20/1
and a little yankee on them all EW
