Thursday 21st June Daily Thread: Day 3 Royal Ascot

Black Caviar · Jun 21, 2012

suehail and man of erin for me n im off to watch the football

gl if you are in the ring tonight

the boris fenster lay of the day will be selected tonight, and I expect it to lose

thats why they call me boris fenster

ROTO · Jun 21, 2012

ROTO said: ↑

‎4.25 Ascot

Compton 40/1

I'll try keep this short enough. Only a small bet but I think Ralph Beckett's 2nd string is vastly overpriced as he was a horse that I rated quite highly last year. He won very impressively on debut at Windsor last July over 6f in a race whose form is working out very well. The 2nd, 4th and 5th are rated 98, 97 and 100 respectively. On his 2nd start he came a decisively beaten 3rd behind a horse who I really liked last year but seems to have gone backwards in Rebellious Guest. Nevertheless, the 3rd Mehdi has finished a 1L beaten 3rd in a Group 3 and the form is again strong. On his 3rd start, he ran an excellent 2L beaten 3rd in the Listed 2 Year Old Trophy at Ripon and the 4th Roger Sez has won a Group 3 impressively subsequently so the form of that race is again strong. With his first 3 starts being over 6f, Compton was stepped up to 7f at Kempton in a Conditions stakes and I'm convinced something went wrong that day as he dropped out of contention extremely quickly. The fact he's been off the track since leads me to believe that is the case and you have to ignore that effort. Compton has been gelded since last seen and he makes his handicap debut off a mark of 92 tomorrow. On the basis of his first 3 starts, I certainly think he looks potentially well treated by the handicapper as he is stepped up to 1m for the first time. Although this is a complete unknow, Beckett is a shrewd operator and I certainly trust his judgement. He's been gelded since his last race which could definitely bring about some improvement and although he has a 281 day break to overcome he won very impressively on debut so I'm sure he'll be fully wound up. Jim Crowley hops off to take the reigns of more fancied stablemate Frog Hollow but that had to be expected given there is a lot of speculation about Compton. William Buick is a very good replacement though and I think it is very interesting that the combination have yielded a 23% strike rate on 3 year olds in the past 5 seasons. There doesn't seem to have been any bias so far this week so stall 3 shouldn't be much of an issue. I think a mark of 92 is definitely workable and if improving for the step up to trip then I think he should definitely outrun the price and I certainly don't think landing this is out of the question.
Click to expand...

Made up for Saddlers Rock a little bit.

smokethedeadbadger · Jun 21, 2012

Bazart EW in last 11/1

Thursday 21st June Daily Thread: Day 3 Royal Ascot

Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

ROTO Well-Known Member

smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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Thursday 21st June Daily Thread: Day 3 Royal Ascot

Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

ROTO Well-Known Member

smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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