Thursday 20th December Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
Taking a bit of a risk with this one but we are well up on the week so why not. My tickle tomorrow is on THE GOSSMOOR YANK 25-1 2.10 Towcester. This horse has some very decent hurdles form to his name. The highlight probably being running Master Overseer to 2 lengths givng 4lbs last season. that was over 3m on soft at a testing track, Chepstow. He is yet to translate that form to fences but the handicapper has given him a real chance here. He isnt going to improve for having left Paul Nicholls but I am equally certain that the handicapper would not have been so keen to drop him as he has were he still in that yard.
It's a risk as he could simply be in recession but at anywhere near his best he would surely trot up off this mark. We shall see but proceed with caution!
 
UKRANIAN STAR Towcester 2.40 is out again tomorrow this time over hurdles. His hurdles mark is 5lbs lower than his chase mark and as he bolted up over fences at the weekend it seems safe to assume that he should be very well in over hurdles too. No 14-1 this time but it seems pretty obvious to play up at least some of the winnings ate offered 2-1.
 
Not a fan of multiple bets but if I were having a bet for fun at Exeter these look to have good chances at reasonable prices.

13.50 Ghizao 9/4
14. 20 Plein Pouvoir 11/10
14.50 Swincombe Flame 9/2
15.20 Ballinahow Star (No prices)
15.50 Storm Alert 11/4
 
stick said:
UKRANIAN STAR Towcester 2.40 is out again tomorrow this time over hurdles. His hurdles mark is 5lbs lower than his chase mark and as he bolted up over fences at the weekend it seems safe to assume that he should be very well in over hurdles too. No 14-1 this time but it seems pretty obvious to play up at least some of the winnings ate offered 2-1.
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I'm going to be very brave and oppose you on that one Stick. In receipt of 19lb + 3lb allowance I fancy Bright Cloud to take this.
 
One I like tomorrow is at TOWCESTER 2.10 ROUND THE HORN 8/1 Makes his seasonal debut here at a course he is 1/1 at, this old boy is 2/3 over the 3m trip and jockey and trainer are +19.75p when teaming up. Jockey M D Grant is 1/1 on him and this 12 year old loves heavy ground which is what it will be tomorrow, you will need to stay long than the mother in law to win this race and in these conditions, this boy does just that, 8/1 at Bet365 looks a bit of value imo as he is as low as 11/2 at Paddy Power.
 
Great tippin on here today!!! <applause> Heres a question though! If I take 5/2 early price and the horse returns 3/1 how the feck is it fair to Rule 4 at the same level as the bigger price <cry>
 
I'll take Roseini against a bunch of old nags in the Towcester 1:10 to go with Sticks 2 today its a load of owd bollox. thankyou to my wife who added the remainder of the sentence.
 
I must put one up on the all weather at Lingfield tomorrow which is very interesting.

Lingfield 1.30
Honky Tonk Queen (No prices at present but 8-1 on betfair)
This horse has been bought out of David Wachman's yard in Ireland, on his last run at Dundalk he travelled beautifully and not helped by having to race wide still looked like he may win at the furlong pole only to not have the pace of the finishers, and so tomorrows extra two furlongs should suit. This race is not very strong and i think Honky Tonk Queen will put up a very good effort with Jim Crowley aboard.

Take the first morning price best odds if possible as may be punted.

There is of course the chance they may just be looking for the handicap mark tomorrow, but I think they will go for it and if they do I think the horse will prove good enough.
 
stick said:
Taking a bit of a risk with this one but we are well up on the week so why not. My tickle tomorrow is on THE GOSSMOOR YANK 25-1 2.10 Towcester. This horse has some very decent hurdles form to his name. The highlight probably being running Master Overseer to 2 lengths givng 4lbs last season. that was over 3m on soft at a testing track, Chepstow. He is yet to translate that form to fences but the handicapper has given him a real chance here. He isnt going to improve for having left Paul Nicholls but I am equally certain that the handicapper would not have been so keen to drop him as he has were he still in that yard.
It's a risk as he could simply be in recession but at anywhere near his best he would surely trot up off this mark. We shall see but proceed with caution!
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Think you may have found a potentially lovely one here Stick. Made his chasing debut in a hot event LTO on the back of a 6 month absence and although he was pretty disappointing (jumped alright in the most part but ballooned a few) he may have needed the run and should definitely benefit significantly for the experience. As you've stated, he's been given a massive chance by the handicapper off a mark of 116 and although he could be regressive at 9 years old I'm certainly willing to take a chance that he isn't. Could turn out to be woeful but he could make 25s look a mockery and at that price it more than negates the questions about him. Regardless of how he runs, lovely spot Stick. Hope he does the business.
 
Morning all

Just the one for today

2.00 Lingfield - PRINCE OF BURMA @ 14/1

Ran well last time out after a break & only 1lb higher than last winning here in Jan.


Good luck all!
 
No surprise there Oddy, i never even looked at one NH card. All the courses were riding heavy and the forecast is for rain all day. They'll all be called off and i'll be surprised if there's a NH meeting raceable come Saturday, looking at the forecast.
 
Galaxy said:
No surprise there Oddy, i never even looked at one NH card. All the courses were riding heavy and the forecast is for rain all day. They'll all be called off and i'll be surprised if there's a NH meeting raceable come Saturday, looking at the forecast.
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Yeah, it's "No Bet Banner" time for me at the moment mate, unless I spot a real mudlark. It's a shame for all those nice novices waiting for a run - you wouldn't want to risk them on heavy going.
 
Towcester has surprisingly been given the green light. Hard enough to get round on good to soft let alone swamp like conditions. Can see some big priced winners there today.
 
Morning, troops. Hope everyone well. Nothing for me today and therefore the old &#8216;no bet&#8217; banner is fluttering in the wind and the rain as we speak (no chance of a White Christmas locally incidentally, &#8216;just like the one&#8217;s I used to know&#8217;, as temperatures are set to continue into double figures up to the big day itself). Amazed that Exeter delayed the inevitable until around 8.30 this morning as the reality was they had no chance of racing long, long before this. Still those old &#8216;Clerks of the Course&#8217; (or groundsman to give them their correct title) certainly do like to build up their role, don&#8217;t they! Shame it&#8217;s off though as a horse named after me was due to line up in the card commencer.

Meanwhile, don&#8217;t, and I do mean don&#8217;t, give up on Cocktails At Dawn just yet, people, and I&#8217;m sure that by &#8216;stumps&#8217; at seasons end any losses from yesterday will merely have proved lent. The ground was dire across the county line, at Newbury, yesterday and I felt he ran very respectably until tiring late on. Cocktails At Dawn is certainly one for next time as you can guarantee that Mr Henderson&#8217;s &#8216;magic&#8217; hands will work there usual miracle.

Good luck all.
 
Morning guys if towester does go ahead I will be doing a V. Williams L15 as her horses seem to love the heavy ground at the moment, so here goes
Dungeness 12.40 25/1
Gorgehous Lliege 1.10 11/4
Miko Du Beauchene 2.10 7/1
Bobble Boru 3.40 9/2
50p ew L15 I'll either be skint or rich this Christmas lol
Good luck if you play ;)
 
I don't like opposing Stick, but today I have to with Miko De Beauchene, who runs in a substantially weaker race than those he had been competing in over the previous few seasons. He is an old boy now, but with conditions set to test the stamina of the field, rather than the pace of the runners, he should come into the fore. He is a past winner of the Welsh National off a mark well over a stone higher than today, and whilst he has been regressive since his win at Haydock off 144, he showed enough on his run at Folkestone in February to suggest that he still retained enough ability to go close off a mark around todays 120.

He is top weight, but his forte is his stamina and I think he should go very close today. Venetia has her string in very good form, and I haven't been able to say that a massive amount in the last few seasons!! 13/2 looks fair enough to me.
 
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