Every chance the first four will contest the Derby, which is rare. So it certainly wasn't a knockout victory by The Foxes. If the Derby was run at York, Newbury or Doncaster I'd be going for White Birch: but it's not. He just doesn't look the type of horse suited to Epsom. 3f out The Foxes was behind the 2nd,3rd and 4th yet ran through to beat them all. To win big races like this you have to have tactical pace and that's what he's got. Can he get 12f? There's no problem with his dam's family so do you trust Churchill to sire a true top class 12f horse? Remember he never won beyond 8f, though he was placed 2nd in the Juddmonte. If you do trust him then The Foxes must be a real possible for Epsom. He looks a handy colt who would be suited to the gradients, though you can never be sure (Dancing Brave wasn't). Passenger looked unlucky but does he have the tactical pace needed? On breeding there's no problem with his sire (same as White Birch) but his dam's family hardly screams stamina. The dam won over 8f and was by War Front who won over an extended 8f and the damsire is Pulpit who again was an 8f horse. You take your chances on two fronts with Passenger then: stamina and tactical speed. He dead-heated with Continuous did not look as wound up as The Foxes. Should be no problem on the sire's side as, though hardly a name we know over here, was a stayer in Japan. The dam's side is interesting and the family of Saxon Warrior, who was 3rd in the Derby but didn't seem to quite stay 12f. AOB's Dante runners often improve a good deal. I'd be interested in this colt if Moore chose him. So a fascinating if inconclusive trial.
Not that anyone would have followed my selections, jeez, i didnt but, the above darts all hit, or there or there abouts...!!! 2x winners and 4x placed finishes...
I wouldn't be interested in any of those for the Derby I do like the 2 Frankel colts but, at 4/1 or less I have to look elsewhere Desert Hero at 20/1 looks interesting, as does Dubai Mile at 14s. Then there are several well bred at 33/1 or more that could be anything, including some unraced. I particularly like Imperial Emperor at 33/1 When is the next declaration stage? It will be a relief for there to be fewer from which to choose, especially to see which one(s) the trainers decide to run
Let me start by definitely agreeing with your last sentence. It has a big question mark next to it as a piece of form, not just because I should have done the winner! The cynic in me wondered if Continuous was in the line up simply as a marker. Ballydoyle have a yard full of blue bloods and you often see them with runners in the trials races that have been running in minor events in Ireland and I think are just in the field so that they can gauge the merit of the other trainers’ horses. I am pretty sure that how many line up at Epsom for O’Brien will be determined by how strongly they fancy Auguste Rodin bouncing back. If they think Continuous is a doubtful stayer, he may head to Chantilly. My expectation is that White Birch will be allowed to take his chance at Epsom but I think they will need to change tactics. Dropping out the back and trying to come through the field is not a successful tactic historically in the Derby so his jockey will need to get a more midfield position by Tattenham Corner, so ironically he probably wants to adopt The Foxes’s tactics. His style of racing makes me think he will get twelve furlongs: although I note the possible stamina doubt on the sire’s side I think stamina often tends to come more from the dam’s side. I wonder whether we will see Passenger at Epsom (even though he is a single figure price). Lack of experience might make them think again, go for something a little lower down the scale and target possibly the Irish Derby. I was down at the start on the Knavesmire and he looked the unfinished article. Given where he lives, we can expect to see a very different horse next year if he does not get packed off to stud after winning something big as a three year old. Other than my selection Epictetus, the huge disappointments of the race were Flying Honours (looked fantastic at the start but never challenged in the race) and Canberra Legend (on this evidence simply not good enough?). At the available prices as I write, White Birch is over-priced but I think I am staying out of this Derby ante post as the going on the day could make almost all the soft ground trials’ form worthless.
