Daily Racing Thread Thursday 18th. July 2019

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attivo

attivo

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Jan 23, 2014
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Thursday's Meetings

Hamilton
Flat 8 Races 1:40-5:15p.m.
Chepstow
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:05p.m.
Leicester
Flat 7 Races 2:20-5:25p.m.
Killarney
N/H 7 Races 2:25-5:30p.m.
Leopardstown(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:40-8:55p.m.
Ffos Las(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:50-9:05p.m.
Epsom Downs(E)
Flat 6 Races 6:00-8:45p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
Over at Leopardstown the 6.10 race sees a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard favourite for the 7F Maiden. Santiago is by Authorised and he is the Dam's first foal. Entered in next year's Derby the big questions will be how forward he is and whether 7F will be enough of a test. He was entered in a mile race at Killarney later in the week and I just wonder if that distance might have suited better.

As things stand I think that Howling Wolf is better value. He was only caught for 2nd in the last stride on his debut and he looked like the step from 6F to 7F would suit him. Not beaten far that day Howling Wolf earned a RPR of 80 and the horse who won this maiden last year won it with an 80 rating that he had also run to on his previous start. If Howling Wind can improve at all from his first race I think he will be hard to beat and the biggest danger would be the O'Brien colt being a bit above average on his debut.

At the odds I felt Howling Wolf was the one to be with. If the money comes for the O'Brien horse it might be ominous but it's a hard ask taking 9/4 on him without inside information and on the balance of probability I took the half-full glass with Howling Wolf at 11/4. Royal Dornoch ran 11th in Howling Wolf's maiden and he was a lot better in second place this evening.

6.10 Leopardstown Howling Wolf 11/4

 
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Chepstow 2.00 A lot is being made of DARGEL, on the basis that he wasn't beaten far in the Salisbury novice won by subsequent Royal Ascot winner Biometric when last seen in April. So much so that he is clear fav at 7/4. Now whether he is good enough to win anyway, I have no idea, not yet having looked at the other runners. BUT, I would not be reading too much into that form. Dargel's RP rating on that form was 65 having earned ratings of 66 on his 2yo debut and 62 on his March outing. That to me doesn't look very progressive. Conversely when Biometric beat him, on his debut, he was given a rating of 72 and has progressed through 3 races to 104 for his Ascot win (32 higher than when he beat Dargel on debut and was "ridden out" for a narrow win). I have no idea how these RPR figures are concocted but it seems to me, based on those figures, that when Dargel was beaten 2½l by Biometric in April he was facing a totally different Biometric to the one that won at Ascot and would probably be beaten out of sight if they met again

I'll have a quick look at the other runners now
 
Ron said:
Chepstow 2.00 A lot is being made of DARGEL, on the basis that he wasn't beaten far in the Salisbury novice won by subsequent Royal Ascot winner Biometric when last seen in April. So much so that he is clear fav at 7/4. Now whether he is good enough to win anyway, I have no idea, not yet having looked at the other runners. BUT, I would not be reading too much into that form. Dargel's RP rating on that form was 65 having earned ratings of 66 on his 2yo debut and 62 on his March outing. That to me doesn't look very progressive. Conversely when Biometric beat him, on his debut, he was given a rating of 72 and has progressed through 3 races to 104 for his Ascot win (32 higher than when he beat Dargel on debut and was "ridden out" for a narrow win). I have no idea how these RPR figures are concocted but it seems to me, based on those figures, that when Dargel was beaten 2½l by Biometric in April he was facing a totally different Biometric to the one that won at Ascot and would probably be beaten out of sight if they met again

I'll have a quick look at the other runners now
Click to expand...

Wind surgery, first run in handicap and yard in good form all add up to short price.
 
Right, having had a brief look at the others.

Tally's Son (5/1). Won over C&D on fast ground just over a year ago, in a good time and ran another good race at the track (in a good time) over 1f shorter. Another fast run race over C&D in May saw him beaten 6¼l. Could be considered somewhat unlucky when 3rd at Windsor last time out

Lose Chippings, the second fav at 9/2 seems to get beaten by whatever he runs against and, as far as I can see, is 0 from 22 runs. Not my idea of a win bet.

Sir Victor (6/1) has run twice on the track (July and Aug last year), winning one and second in the other. Fairly decent times. And then won at Goodwood. He has to be in with a chance back on this course "Slowly away, towards rear, progress into midfield over 3f out, not clear run 2f out, impeded over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to take 3rd inside final furlong, hampered last stride ". Has to have a chance

Bond Angel. (16/1) Apart for one race at Windsor, over 10f, he has been running on the AW for his last 15 races. Prior to that (less than a year ago!) he ran consistently good times over this track in 3 races within 15 days. That would put him in with a decent chance but all his 4 wins have come at Southwell Has a big weight but goes well for girls (3 of his wins) and particularly well for Katherine Begley, who takes off 5lb

My idea of the value bet would be Bond Angel (16/1) with Sir Victor and Tally's Son the main dangers
 
Morning

8.25 Leopardstown-Invitation

Each Way @ 7-1 [Bet 365]

Can see her improving now on faster ground
 
Ron said:
Right, having had a brief look at the others.

Tally's Son (5/1). Won over C&D on fast ground just over a year ago, in a good time and ran another good race at the track (in a good time) over 1f shorter. Another fast run race over C&D in May saw him beaten 6¼l. Could be considered somewhat unlucky when 3rd at Windsor last time out

Lose Chippings, the second fav at 9/2 seems to get beaten by whatever he runs against and, as far as I can see, is 0 from 22 runs. Not my idea of a win bet.

Sir Victor (6/1) has run twice on the track (July and Aug last year), winning one and second in the other. Fairly decent times. And then won at Goodwood. He has to be in with a chance back on this course "Slowly away, towards rear, progress into midfield over 3f out, not clear run 2f out, impeded over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to take 3rd inside final furlong, hampered last stride ". Has to have a chance

Bond Angel. (16/1) Apart for one race at Windsor, over 10f, he has been running on the AW for his last 15 races. Prior to that (less than a year ago!) he ran consistently good times over this track in 3 races within 15 days. That would put him in with a decent chance but all his 4 wins have come at Southwell Has a big weight but goes well for girls (3 of his wins) and particularly well for Katherine Begley, who takes off 5lb

My idea of the value bet would be Bond Angel (16/1) with Sir Victor and Tally's Son the main dangers
Click to expand...
I’ve had a look at this race and bond angel looks the value to me also Ron, so avoid at all costs.
 
hello folks!

killarney,2 25:

well,havingagoodtime is open to loads of improvement,and not underestimated,but she maybe has to step up again to score here.so,that leaves the two mullins mares,PRAVALAGUNA and shanning,and both have already shown above-average form in their respective careers,amd a narrow vote goes to the former,who,despite giving lots of weight away today,looks the class horse in this race.
 
killarney,2 55:

none of these are 100% convincing for one reason or another,but i think,SCOTCH QUAY can go well here.he isnt especially well treated,but had a profitable spring,and though not so good of late,if he can bounce back to something like that spring form today,should run well.e w value..
 
jumpsfan said:
killarney,2 55:

none of these are 100% convincing for one reason or another,but i think,SCOTCH QUAY can go well here.he isnt especially well treated,but had a profitable spring,and though not so good of late,if he can bounce back to something like that spring form today,should run well.e w value..
Click to expand...
at least a placer..

killarney,3 25:

a weak looking maiden hurdle,but one,that could easily see WHENURGOODURGOOD feature here.has far more scope for progress than most here,and his second last time out looks by far the most solid form.big player.
 
jumpsfan said:
at least a placer..

killarney,3 25:

a weak looking maiden hurdle,but one,that could easily see WHENURGOODURGOOD feature here.has far more scope for progress than most here,and his second last time out looks by far the most solid form.big player.
Click to expand...

Horst Hrubesch - now there was a big player <yikes>
 
OddDog said:
Horst Hrubesch - now there was a big player <yikes>
Click to expand...
yes,but that was way before my time,to be honest,lol..

killarney,3 55:

the two gavin cromwell horses command respect here,but,for me,its GIVE BATTLE,who can trump them both today.ran reasonably well after a long absence from hurdling last time out,and always provided,he doesnt "bounce",has a major shout,especially,as he can run off the same mark today..shrewd yard too..
 
killarney,4 25:

this is the feature race on todays card,and quite tricky,despite the relatively small field.ROOM TO ROAM looks a definite contender here,as although he couldnt back up his win two starts ago last time out,he was by no means disgraced there,and the winner has just followed up today.big shout.
 
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