Thursday 16th August daily thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
A couple for me tomorrow. First up at Newmarket 2.40 KUDA HURAA 100-30 won very nicely recently at Kempton and escapes a penalty as that was an apprentice race. His turf form is only on soft going and I think he has plenty to come. 5lb well in on his future mark and a further 5lb taken off by the apprentice kockey. It's not a very competitive affair and he is taken to beat the Stoute horse.

Much later in the day I fancy one in the Fontwell bumper at 8.00 CLOVER NOVA tissue 20-1 although I wouldnt be surprised if better wasnt available when it gets priced up. He ran in a much better race than this on his debut at Newbury where the first three placings were filled by King, Henderson and Cantillon horses. That race is working out nicely and this one closed up stylishly on the home turn before weakening quickly. He wore a tongue strap today and they reckon he had a breathing problem, it's on again today and I hope it has the desired effect.
He will be much better suited by this trip and grade. He has a decent flat pedigree but the clincher for me is the booking of Timmy Murphy. I will be getting on this one early and hoping the vibes thereafter are positive.

Earlier on the card DORSET NAGA is on a retrieval mission. They say the saddle slipped last time at Bangor and if that run is justifiably excused then he should be backed again tomorrow. Personally, I shall have a dabble without getting too heavily involved. If Aidan Coleman were in the plate I would be lumping on!
 
That was one of two I was thinking of Stick. I'd have been happier if he'd had a breathing opp though. The other I think has a squek at a price is Sparaculous.
 
Yeah. I think you're right. Trainer does well with limited bumper runners as well. I remember watching the debut race live. There's a world of difference between a Newbury bumper in March and this rubbish tomorrow night. I think it's win or bust. She'll either blow up with breathing problems again or she'll win with a bit in hand.
 
Dorset Naga should improve just for chasing experience last time out. This is a much weaker race as well. He'll win off 105 over fences. Like I said on yesterday's thread I think it's out of DN and Escardo although I really think DN will be very hard to beat. A big weight is a negative but he's a big lad and I think he'll carry it okay. DN win. Escardo small saver to cover DN stake.
 
ROTO said:
Sick of him now at this stage! Last chance saloon now at 10s as he's fallen to a ridiculously good mark with cheekpieces on for the first time.
Click to expand...

I will have small wager on him tomorrow, have done everytime you have put him up and knowing our luck we wont and he will go on to win! lol
As you say hopefully the cheek pieces will make a big difference!
 
Some decent racing over the sticks for a change today, and quite a few I fancy:

7.30 Fontwell Lahib The Fifth - I put him up last time on his first run for the Pipe yard and he ran a race full of promise before lack of race fitness told and he weakened up the run-in. He is dropped a pound to 87 for that and has Tom Scu up so I am expecting a big run from this gelding who has won off 95 earlier in his career. 5/1 early doors looks a nice e/w bet to nothing.

5.40 Stratford Sud Pacifique - No chance last time out against the very impressive Forgotten Voice but I just think today might be his day. Whilst he hasn't exactly set the world alight so far over hurdles he has been steadily progressing and at 3/1 he is worth a little dabble.

7.10 Stratford Henry San - Alan King's gelding ran a decent race last time out over hurdles when 3rd in a decent looking handicap at Bangor. The winner, Absinthe, has since ran a good 4th in the Summer Hurdle off 125 (beaten 4 lengths by Local hero) and the 2nd, Cavite Eta, subsequently finished a close-up 3rd in a decent Novice event behind Keeneland and Makbullet. Henry San is dropped 2lbs to 113 today and has been kept ticking over on the flat. This looks winnable for him and 15/2 looks a bit of value to me.

8.10 Stratford Western Approaches - very impressive winner last time out and 10/11 looks a nice price for her to give the weight away to a modest looking bunch.

Best of luck to everyone <cheers>
 
In a moment of supreme madness I have had the whole account balance on Clover Nova @ 25~1 bog. Thats £132.50 each way. It's only my profit this month so wont hurt me if it loses.
 
Good shout the other day Stick with that 20/1 rag that came back to form.

Leopardstown 7.25 Duntle 4/1

Really like this filly, got 9/2 but best price 4s just now, wouldnt want it bottomless but if they decide that the ground is ok to run, im sure she will take an awful lot of beating, Takar looks the danger but im sweet on the filly getting 6 pounds tonight.
 
Morning all,

Hope Clova Nova wins, nice pay day that will be. So far only had a look at Beverley and i have come up with 2.

3.35 Bev - Blue Clumber. Raced in the Hilary Needler Trophy where she finished 2nd at 100/1 on todays forecast going of g/f. Soft ground has probably gone against her recently and also she has been running over 6/7 furlongs, but has been leading upto the 5f point before weakening. She is the highest rated horse here today and a return to 5f and from stall 1, i hope that she proves that her run in the HNT was no fluke. Worth a couple of quid e/w at a price of 28/1.

4.10 Bev - Moon Trip. Mr Johnston always does well in these types of races and he has won 2 out of the last 3 runnings. Moon Trip ran very well last Saturday in a better race and i'm hopeful he will win this.
 
Morning, troops. Nothing for me today but I see the big news from a punting perspective is that old Ladbrokes have increased the minimum stake per telephone call to their offices from £5 to £25! Almost all other major bookie chappies are in the £5-£10 bracket but will this remain so now??? Ladbrokes are all but saying to their telephone clients to either bet big or get on the internet and I wonder if this is the beginning of the end for ‘telephone betting’!

Stickers, I hope your ‘moment of madness’ isn’t the same sort of ‘moment of madness’ that Welsh Labour MP’s have! Clover Nova is a lovely name for a mare though (and it almost rhymes) plus Mr Henderson’s runner in that Newbury bumper certainly franked the form of that race by obliging next time in a Cheltenham National Hunt Flat race. Clover Nova looks very interesting this eve.

Finally, reading ‘The Weekender’ yesterday it would appear that Roger Charlton’s Pythagorean is the next supposed reincarnation of Pegasus as there were tips for it on almost every page and the colts virtues Eulogised to the hilt with a capital ‘E’. Runs tomorrow at Newbury (2.20) and the theory is that Pythagorean, who is entered in all the top 2YO heats later in the term, will win with some ease.
 
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