At Newmarket on Wednesday, I spoke to a gent after racing who had placed seven bets and found five winners. I wish I had met him earlier. The first three races were won by horse number three. In the fourth race horse number three was an odds-on favourite Guineas candidate and ran like a drain. My first backable selection, a filly trained by Gosden and ridden by Moore, ended up favourite for the Nell Gwyn but the race was won by the form horse under Frankie Dettori. My second was trained by Stoute and ridden by Moore but the race was won by the heavily backed favourite trained by Gosden ridden by Frankie Dettori. So I ended up 0 from 2. Take the Newmarket race times with a pinch of salt as there was a strong following wind but the last two winners should both go in the note book as they won with something in hand.
Here are the ones to scratch from you list of possible winners on the eight-race Craven Stakes card:
I am bothered by the Abernant Stakes as it does appear to be looking a gift horse in the mouth. On the figures, Music Master is the form horse, won first time out last term and Henry Candy’s contender ought to win this if he replicates his latest Group 1 third. I cannot help but feel that Astaire likes to get his toe in.
Another race that represents a conundrum is the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, as the clear form pick is French Navy; however, he was beaten in the race last year. Four of his opponents strip race fit and another, Arod, won first time out (unlike the favourite). With Glory Awaits and Educate in the race, there should be no lack of pace, so surely no excuses for Charlie Appleby’s seven year old.
The Craven Stakes looks a trappy contest. War Envoy’s second in a Listed race on the Dundalk polytrack does not look good enough to be running, so is he just here to give Ballydoyle a marker to the others? Kool Company is penalised for his Group 2 wins but is the form pick whilst the stable’s other runner, Moheet, is the dark horse with just an easy maiden race win to his name. Nafaqa was beaten by Elm Park when favourite for the Royal Lodge when last seen but previously accounted for White Lake. I am expecting Aces to try and make all as he did when third in the Champagne Stakes, so I hope that Nafaqa settles and I will give Barry Hills’ colt a chance to atone for his last visit to the track.
Newmarket
15:30 Music Master
16:05 Nafaqa
16:40 French Navy
, good luck if you play.
