Daily Racing Thread Thursday 12th. August 2021

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After Tuesday 10th August and Wednesday 10th August, I am relieved to see we have moved to Thursday the 12th August. I thought it was Groundhog Day for a while :emoticon-0141-whew:

Talking of Groundhog Day, I am going down the same road as yesterday in the 2YO maiden that opens the Leopardstown card. I have picked another Jessica Harrington filly with entries that suggest she might be useful.

Alizarine is by Sea The Moon out of an Invincible Spirit mare and the two half siblings to race so far have been pretty good on 89 and 102 ratings. This filly was supposed to have run already but due to a cock up they ran a three year old horse in her place instead. Entered in the Debutante, Moyglare and the Fillies Mile at Newmarket Alizarine has several ahead of her in the betting who do not appeal to me based on their runs so far compared to the odds they are. I thought 10/1 was a bit on the big side for a well entered up filly.

Madonnadelrosario has been quite disappointing in two starts and the blinkers are reached for now. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is 1/30 and 3% this past fortnight, so that sets alarm bells off for me but she is half the odds of Alizarine despite being beaten 5 lengths and 6 lengths in her two starts. I expect a big drift from 5/1 for her.

Limiti Di Greccio has joined the Twomey yard but two runs of 73 and 75 on RPR figures are promising, rather than daunting and I feel others here pose bigger dangers.

Smile Of Love has two runs under her belt as well and they have been rated slightly higher by the Racing Post on 82 and 83. Not much improvement there but there could be more to come. She was a place behind Agartha last time and that filly went on to cause an upset in a Group 3 next time but it may be dangerous to take that form too literally. She appeals more than the first two mentioned.

Voice Of Angels and Shamiyama are arguably the ones to be focusing on because they have only had one start each and already hold similar form to the best of those to have run. They were second and third in the same race when separated by just a neck behind Aidan O'Brien's Concert Hall on their debuts. Hard to call who will get the better of it this time and the layers have them both 3/1 across the boards. I could see the logic in thinking that Weld's Sea The Stars filly may improve more than Joseph O'Brien's Dark Angel runner but you could argue that Shamiyana looks like she will come into her own over further than this 7F.

Kerkiyra was fifth in the same race as the two above but she was a little disappointing as the second favourite that day and not building on her debut 4th.

At the odds I went with Alizarine at 10/1. She will need to be smart to win first time out but is well entered up. Smile Of Love was next for me but 5/1 just too short.

4.30 Leopardstown Alizarine 10/1

Alizarne/Smile Of Love RF
 
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I see one time Oaks fancy Domino Darling runs in a Handicap at Salisbury today. She was dire on her seasonal reappearance though and is 16/1 in a race where she is upped half a mile after trying just 8F last time. Hard to fancy her.

There are three with similar profiles at the head of the betting. Timeless Soul is favourite for Roger Varian and Maytal next best for Michael Stoute. The Stoute filly drops in trip today after perhaps running out of juice last time out when just holding on for third. Timeless Soul goes up from 10F to 12F and I prefer that scenario, She looks to hold a good chance here but the one I like is Nell Quickly. Less sexy trainer in Denis Coakley and the stable have been quiet but I like the way she is progressing and she came with a sustained run to just get the better of a Bin Suroor 4YO last time, looking like the extra 2F today would suit. Up 5 lbs for that win to 84 I think she has a decent chance of progressing again and going close. She was quite gritty in getting up last time and that battling quality may make the difference in a tight looking race.

4.40 Salisbury Nell Quickly 4/1
 
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I'll take a chance on On The Hook in the opener at Beverly. For the Racing Post it was an eyecatcher when On The Hook finished 3rd in a maiden at Musselburgh last time out (kept on well over 1f out) under an inexperienced rider. Paul Mulrennan rides today and he has a 17,24 % strike rate for Mick and David Easterby last 12 month. Stable usually does well at this track and has been amongst the winners recently (winner yesterday). Slightly longer trip today at this track could eak out some improvement.

Wouldn't be totally surprised if Paul Mulrennan wins on his only other ride today at Beverly too because First Greyed in the 4.20 has run well at this track in 3rd last time out and is still on a career-low mark.

Good luck whatever you back today.
 
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Another one who catches my eye for each way purposes today is Mutabaahy in the 3.10 at Beverly. Poor winning strike rate on turf but seldom misses out minor money for connections. On a good mark and has run well for Harry Russell (takes off 3lb) in the past. Only visit to Beverly when 5th of 9 behind higher rated rivals 2 runs ago wasn't a bad performance in my opinion.
 
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King Vega is the least exposed horse in that G3 at salisbury today , at 11/1 he’s worth a speculative punt
 
The Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury sees Megallan a warm favourite for the Gosdens. The colt has not been seen since running down the field in the French Derby and he can perhaps be forgiven that one poor run. He's had a little over two months off and that seems a bit longer than you would think was originally the plan. He came into this season as a colt I felt was exposed as a bit short of Group class and looking through his form his Dante run behind Hurricane Lane stands out like a sore thumb as his best effort. I am concerned that the trip was too short by far for Hurricane Lane that day and the Hurricane Lane we saw that day wasn't the one we saw when upped in trip. I have Megallan with something to prove after looking static outside of that seemingly improved effort in the Dante. At the odds, I am against him.

A few candidates to oppose him with and Sir Busker is the highest rated in the field. He doesn't win as often as you would like to see but he's been highly tried at times. The ground was very soft when he was disappointing in France but was only good to soft when less than his best form behind Tilsit last time. He's capable of winning this if he fires today and the stable are on 21% this past two weeks and they had a winner yesterday.

King Vega is unexposed and has been gelded and rested since a poor run on his reappearance. His two seconds last season were behind decent sorts and his poor run was when he was asked a lot behind Mac Swiney in the Group 1 Futurity. He's been absent a while but the stable are in good form.

Perotto has been supported but I think he has a bit to find here. The Tregoning stable are in fine form but I think he's just a bit short now.

I felt Solid Stone should go close here. He bumped into a real improving type in Real World last time and he has been running to the sort of level that could land this contest. The Stoute stable are ticking away quite well and I though he had a very similar chance to Megallan here but at a much better price.

4.05 Salisbury Solid Stone 5/1

Solid Stone/Sir Busker RF
 
Solid Stone committed very early. Looked like he was swamped and then stayed on strongly again to finish a close up 4th. Sir Busker looked to have timed it perfectly in claiming Megallan but the Gosden horse rallied and got back up. You sort of wonder about Sir Busker's resilience after watching that. Solid Stone is another who ran a strange race there and I would also question how straightforward he is.

Oh well, the Fav wins but I bet some of his backers had their slips primed for the bin at one stage. I'll give both my horses a B- and the comment "Must pay attention and try harder"
 
Money came for Alizarine, into 9/2 from 10/1 but she was hopeless. Sat at the back and niggled along, she found nothing. There is no way on God's earth that she will be keeping any of her Group entries and it's probably plan C, never mind plan B with her.

There was money for Limiti Di Greccio and it proved well founded. In behind there was little to get excited about. Madonnadelrosario was easy to back put to 14/1 from 5/1 and I suspected she would be a drifter. She as 6th and at least she beat the well backed Alizarine who stank like a month old kipper.

Better news at Salisbury as Nell Quickly did indeed show grit in getting up to beat the pace setting Maytal. The pair were three lengths clear of Domino Darling, who ran much better today and wasn't unsupported.

Must stop backing these unraced horses, although I always punt smaller amounts on them than ones I have seen run.

A 4/1 winner wasn't too bad
 
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I picked Tut Tut last time she ran in the valuable sales race won by Sacred Bridge. Unplaced that day but back in calmer waters today she won narrowly at 5/2. Of course, I wasn't on.
 
Scampi should run well in the 20:08 at Lingfield tonight. Hopefully, a winner for Hayley Turner who takes the ride for the Andrew Balding yard.

(Please note, 'last edited' is the correct time of posting!)
 
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Grendel said:
I see one time Oaks fancy Domino Darling runs in a Handicap at Salisbury today. She was dire on her seasonal reappearance though and is 16/1 in a race where she is upped half a mile after trying just 8F last time. Hard to fancy her.

There are three with similar profiles at the head of the betting. Timeless Soul is favourite for Roger Varian and Maytal next best for Michael Stoute. The Stoute filly drops in trip today after perhaps running out of juice last time out when just holding on for third. Timeless Soul goes up from 10F to 12F and I prefer that scenario, She looks to hold a good chance here but the one I like is Nell Quickly. Less sexy trainer in Denis Coakley and the stable have been quiet but I like the way she is progressing and she came with a sustained run to just get the better of a Bin Suroor 4YO last time, looking like the extra 2F today would suit. Up 5 lbs for that win to 84 I think she has a decent chance of progressing again and going close. She was quite gritty in getting up last time and that battling quality may make the difference in a tight looking race.

4.40 Salisbury Nell Quickly 4/1
Click to expand...

Well done and thank you very much for this winner :emoticon-0100-smile
 
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