Daily Racing Thread Thursday 10th. Nov. 2016

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I cannot really call this a tip but information passed on. My gaffer is in the syndicate that own Orithia, which is slated to run in the Chelmsford 4:25.

When she ran at Windsor two races ago, with Jim Crowley aboard, she made the running but then blew up at the distance, which was subsequently explained by her swallowing her tongue. Last time out she was fitted with a tongue strap (which she uses again) but they changed the tactics and held her up, so now her form figures read 987 – so will she finish sixth? I know they were surprised by the lenient handicap mark that she was given, so they have put her in this nursery.

The problem I have here is that I think she needs to be allowed to hit the gate and go, but will those be the instructions given to the jockey? In the two races where she has been held up and brought late she has not looked a likely winner even though she has a big home reputation.
 
QuarterMoonII said:
I cannot really call this a tip but information passed on. My gaffer is in the syndicate that own Orithia, which is slated to run in the Chelmsford 4:25.

When she ran at Windsor two races ago, with Jim Crowley aboard, she made the running but then blew up at the distance, which was subsequently explained by her swallowing her tongue. Last time out she was fitted with a tongue strap (which she uses again) but they changed the tactics and held her up, so now her form figures read 987 – so will she finish sixth? I know they were surprised by the lenient handicap mark that she was given, so they have put her in this nursery.

The problem I have here is that I think she needs to be allowed to hit the gate and go, but will those be the instructions given to the jockey? In the two races where she has been held up and brought late she has not looked a likely winner even though she has a big home reputation.
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The step up to 7f wont do any harm QM and there certainly looks to be some early money for it.
 
stick said:
We haven't seen the wheelbarrow out for a while, its long overdue. Load it up and lump it on;

MOSCATO 13/8 Ludlow 2:35

I really cannot see this losing!
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All his flat wins have been over 2 miles and all his flat runs since his last win have been over 2 miles or further. His first run over hurdles was a class 3 over 2 miles which was far too short for him. This 2m 5f will be much more up his street. The main threat Ballyhill won a lower class event last time and carries 10lb more weight upped in class. Should really be odds on stick.
 
The going at Ludlow is reported as good. It's been p***ing down here for much of the last 24 hours. Can't see it being good tomorrow.
 
stick said:
We haven't seen the wheelbarrow out for a while, its long overdue. Load it up and lump it on;

MOSCATO 13/8 Ludlow 2:35

I really cannot see this losing!
Click to expand...
Ron said:
All his flat wins have been over 2 miles and all his flat runs since his last win have been over 2 miles or further. His first run over hurdles was a class 3 over 2 miles which was far too short for him. This 2m 5f will be much more up his street. The main threat Ballyhill won a lower class event last time and carries 10lb more weight upped in class. Should really be odds on stick.
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I'd be tempted to double it up with Adam du Breteau in the next at 11/4 (8.84/1 double)
 
Ron said:
All his flat wins have been over 2 miles and all his flat runs since his last win have been over 2 miles or further. His first run over hurdles was a class 3 over 2 miles which was far too short for him. This 2m 5f will be much more up his street. The main threat Ballyhill won a lower class event last time and carries 10lb more weight upped in class. Should really be odds on stick.
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The old brain doesnt work as well as it should Ron but I think I wrote something on here recently detailing optimum flat trips transferred to NH ideals, something like this;

1m = wont stay
1m 2f to 1m 4f = 2m
1m 6f = 2m 4f
2m = 2m 6f to 3m

I would say conditions are massively in his favour tomorrow. I dont rate the opposition and crucially Sherwood looks like he is just turning the corner with his horses whereas when this one debuted they were in dire form!
 
I don't know why, but in the short time I've been interested in this great sport, I've really enjoyed watching racing on the fibresand at Southwell.
So, looking forward to today and perhaps getting off to a good start with Princess Peaches in the 12.25.

Good Luck all.
 
QuarterMoonII said:
I cannot really call this a tip but information passed on. My gaffer is in the syndicate that own Orithia, which is slated to run in the Chelmsford 4:25.

When she ran at Windsor two races ago, with Jim Crowley aboard, she made the running but then blew up at the distance, which was subsequently explained by her swallowing her tongue. Last time out she was fitted with a tongue strap (which she uses again) but they changed the tactics and held her up, so now her form figures read 987 – so will she finish sixth? I know they were surprised by the lenient handicap mark that she was given, so they have put her in this nursery.

The problem I have here is that I think she needs to be allowed to hit the gate and go, but will those be the instructions given to the jockey? In the two races where she has been held up and brought late she has not looked a likely winner even though she has a big home reputation.
Click to expand...

I noticed she had drifted out to 10/1 on the exchanges early this morning but is now a 6/1 shot having been put up by Hugh Taylor of ATR

"ORITHIA showed her best form to date in a Newbury maiden last time and looks an interesting runner on her handicap debut at Chelmsford (4.25).

She had little chance in that type of event, as her 150-1 SP suggests, but she beat more than beat her, even though she might not have been racing on the best part of the track from her high draw, and seemed suited by the step up in trip.

She’s up another half furlong here, her pedigree suggests she should handle the surface (raced over 5f on her only previous all-weather start, which was on her debut), and most of her rivals here have already had their limitations exposed on the surface."

HUGH'S BEST BETS (SCALE 1-5 POINTS):
4.25 CHELMSFORD
1pt win ORITHIA (8-1 Betfair, Ladbrokes, William Hill, 15-2 Sky Bet, 7-1 general)

I'm having a win double with Stick's wheelbarrow job
Good Luck <ok>
 
Remember when Squire drifted like a barge at Windsor and none of us could work out why..... your best mate Pat gave him an absolute shocker!
 
Alex Hammond is currently on a losing run of 19 tips in a row.... most of them tend to be short prices so a spectacular result. Her record is 26 in a row, she could stop a train.....
 
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Looks like the John Durkan Memorial Chase will be the next port of call for Sub Lieutenant. The last Irish chaser to excite me as much as this fellow took the race in 2012 ;)
 
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