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Threat of Points Deduction.

Discussion in 'Bristol City' started by wizered, Jun 17, 2022.

  1. wizered

    wizered Ol' Mucker
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    Football finance expert discusses the threat of a points deduction for Bristol City next season
    Bristol City have been working hard to significantly reduce their losses for their next set of accounts to help them meet the EFL's Profit & Sustainability regulations

    Football finance expert Kieran Maguire believes Bristol City may have resigned themselves to a points deduction for next season as the Robins continue to be in discussions with the EFL over Profit & Sustainability obligations.

    City posted record losses of £38.4million in December for the 2020/21 season and under the league’s P&S submissions - whereby club losses cannot exceed £39m over a three-year rolling period - it puts them right on the border for sanctions.

    The 2018/19 season, in which the sales of Lloyd Kelly and Adam Webster helped City post profits of £10.9m, has kept them under the limit but next season’s submission for the 2021/22 accounts, won’t have that figure as part of the calculation.

    City CEO Richard Gould has already addressed the prospect of potential punishment further down the road. Speaking to Bristol Live in January, Gould said: “We just want to be treated fairly and we have to get the argument out on the table.

    “Would we prefer to sell all our players or take a penalty hit, if they decide to prosecute? Well, that is a decision that we’ll have to look at and a judgement we take in the summer when we get more feedback from the EFL.”

    Points deductions imposed by the EFL in recent years have varied from six for Reading last season, nine to Birmingham City in 2018/19 to 21 for Derby County, albeit with the latter due to the Rams entering administration, a situation that isn’t relevant to the Robins.

    “Bristol City, I thought it was very interesting their chief executive said they might have to budget for a points deduction next season and, if so, so be it. I thought they were fascinating comments,” Maguire told the Benjamin Bloom Football Channel in a discussion about teams who could incur penalties next season.

    “They historically have benefitted from the sale of Adam Webster, which has been within the three-year window and will be dropping out for 2021/22. They made a fair amount of profit on that deal.

    “They did seem to be resigning themselves to a potential issue. And if it’s only a 3-4 points deduction I don’t think it’s going to have a negative impact on a side that’s going for a play-off place because it’s one match, or one and a half matches."

    The picture is a complex one for a number of reasons. Firstly, because over the last two summer windows, City have reduced their wage bill which had risen to an unsustainable £35.3m per year for 2020/21. Eleven first-team players, including higher-earners Famara Diedhiou and Jamie Paterson, were released last summer, with Nathan Baker and Andi Weimann then negotiating reduced terms, while this window has already seen Callum O’Dowda moved on.

    The Republic of Ireland international is expected to be followed by Kasey Palmer, as he finalises his switch to Coventry City, while Nahki Wells and potentially also Tomas Kalas could follow before the end of August.

    That would achieve the sense of “wage equality” that manager Nigel Pearson has spoken about as a target for the club to try and achieve, as most of those earning in excess of £20,000-a-week would have been taken off the books.

    Taking club salaries move towards the £20m mark, and possibly even below, would drastically help City meet P&S obligations when they make their submission at the start of next year.

    So too would the prospect of potentially selling Han-Noah Massengo, Antoine Semenyo or Alex Scott, plus the prospect of sell-on value for Webster, Kelly or Josh Brownhill, should any be sold by their respective clubs this summer.

    But, as Gould indicated earlier this year, they won't be forced into selling off a prized asset just if it meant reaching the FFP threshold and, theoretically, could accept a small points deduction instead, if it meant keeping Scott or Semenyo; Massengo being a different case because of his expiring contract.

    The EFL are also yet to confirm if transfer “add-backs” will be permitted in submissions with City’s argument being that Covid-19 and playing a season behind closed doors led to the collapse of the transfer market outside of the Premier League, therefore their business model of leaning towards transfer revenue was adversely affected from 2020 onwards. The league has already allowed such add-backs for lost ticket revenue of £5m and £2.5m but transfer income is a more subjective figure to calculate.

    Having hired independent auditors to asses the impact, the Robins estimate they lost around £30m in potential revenues, a figure that, again, would allow them to meet P&S and avoid a points deduction.
    https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/bristol-city-points-deduction-finance-7219960
     
    #1
  2. invermeremike

    invermeremike Well-Known Member

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    I think some of us have worried about this potential points deduction and let's hope some of the upcoming deals, plus some fine accounting, might get us off the hook. It could spell disaster if we do get sanctioned but I will wait until the bell tolls before I scream.
     
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  3. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    Maybe some will stop saying when we sell x we can look for a replacement as we can use the money. If any of these three sell the money will all go into reducing this debt.
     
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  4. realred1952

    realred1952 Well-Known Member

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    any money raised from any where will help toward the debt. The hard bit is getting past the present statement at the bank .... currently in the red with an overdraft!!!
    when we sold Webster he was sold for over £20m ?? Semenyo in my books has to worth at least £15m with add ons and a 20 % on going......
    MASSENGO .. We need to keep him, sign him up for a 4 year plus 1 put on an increasing salary annually at 5% and have a release clause of say £12m +20% /£14/£18m in year 3 +20% year 4 ???
    Scott .. keep him 4 year contract + 1 put on reasonable weekly wage at present is an insult really!!! like that of AS!!!

    WOULD LET Palmer, reluctantly, go for £3m + 20% and Nakhi for £1.5m ....... that would be a saving of about £5-6m on the book [ Coventry already struck a deal! ]
    Pring, any offer over £6m +25% would sell

    I would put any FIRST TEAM PLAYER [ 24 or under ] on a 3-4 year contract plus 1 [ I reckon the plus 1 is an inevitable part of contracts now?
     
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  5. invermeremike

    invermeremike Well-Known Member

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    Massengo has never set my world on fire and I think he should go for the highest offer, if indeed any team is prepared to pay anything. The talk has been heard but the deeds have not been done and that is why I think both parties need to move on.
     
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  6. AshtonRed

    AshtonRed Well-Known Member

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    I think HNM. will be gone this summer, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go.
     
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  7. realred1952

    realred1952 Well-Known Member

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    I think he has the potential to get better each season and be worth a lot of money in a season or 2's time ... he will slow down a bit and get more finesse!
     
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  8. invermeremike

    invermeremike Well-Known Member

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    Remind me how long we have been waiting for the cream to finally rise to the top?
     
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  9. AshtonRed

    AshtonRed Well-Known Member

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    I don’t dislike him, I just think he will go as he’s not signed a new contract. Obviously if he signs one that’s different
     
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  10. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    You do realise he’s still only 20 don’t you?
     
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  11. AshtonRed

    AshtonRed Well-Known Member

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    Considering his age, he’s done really well to have as many championship games under his belt as he has.
     
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  12. Redprintt

    Redprintt Well-Known Member

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    Tbf Massengo wouldn't have played much if Williams had been fit.
    I really want to see him flourish but he flatters to deceive a bit much for me.
    I do recognise his energy and great attitude but his assist numbers aren't good, never seen him leave his foot in, he's nothing in the air and yet to score in over 80 games.
    I don't think Pearson is his greatest fan either so he may well do better elsewhere as he gets older and stronger.
     
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  13. AshtonRed

    AshtonRed Well-Known Member

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    I don’t disagree I just think we tend to forget , I know I do, that he’s still only 20.
     
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  14. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    The same Pearson that said I want 11 HNM on the pitch. Yep he’s not his greatest fan <laugh>
     
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  15. invermeremike

    invermeremike Well-Known Member

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    Probably lousy in goal. :emoticon-0100-smile
     
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  16. Supcon72

    Supcon72 Well-Known Member

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    If we get a points deduction, then so will the likes of Stoke and many others. COVID hit everyone, the EFL will grant some kind of leniency for the 20 months of no income#, or there will be points deductions everywhere across the league.
     
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  17. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    They have done, they’ve allowed £5 million in one years finances and £2.5 million in the other year owing to loss of income to no fans allowed inside.
    I think it’s being contested.
    Some good bits of information, surrounded by some daft bits. But two or three very good posters giving financial info on the coming season.
    https://www.otib.co.uk/index.php?/topic/216701-points-deduction-when-will-we-know/
     
    #17
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2022
  18. Redprintt

    Redprintt Well-Known Member

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    He was talking strictly about energy and attitude, nobody can questions that.
     
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  19. realred1952

    realred1952 Well-Known Member

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    It would have been thought that because we got our accounts in early, were aware of the problem and didnt endeavour to follow the actions of a few clubs like Derby trying to cheat/ cover it up/etc it would point to us be on top of the situation.
    The fact we had a system that was working, showed a profit in season 1 of 3 and then through no crowds a compressed market due to dealings [ covid ] in seasons 2 and 3 ,we lost money.
    Along with no crowds then, just allowing a blanket £5m & £2.5m for crowd loss is hardly fair? No crowds = no profit on ancillaries / third party trading / and local advertising was hardly getting coverage so did they pay full contributions!
    hospitality makes quite a bit, as does summer events... all goes into kitty.
    I am not an accountant but in 2 periods 10 years to 1990 and 18 years to 2018 I did all my own accounts [ and a couple of others advising] and the final figure is on paper, the worst you can get away with legally. Of course my aim was to see my tax bill which was based on profit, [ BCFC IS SAME PROFIT /LOSS but with a EFL watchdog and a more complicated structure, strings! ]
    By now we should really have been told points deduction / points deduction suspended for ... or no action but needs to be monitored [ business plan ] over next 3 years / 2 years.

    Another factor is that £39m over 3 years is a blanket figure, smaller clubs will no doubt have difficulty in actually turning over that amount [ rules applying ] Clubs cut the cloth according to ...... BCFC has gates of 20,000 so expect to have an income of £ xxx m, so players are acquired and paid accordingly .... someone like peterbro may have gates of 10,000 so you would expect them to respond accordingly.
    I do not know how the EFL COULD MAKE A FAIRER assessment ... Florest has gambled and been promoted what is their losses .....
     
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  20. AshtonRed

    AshtonRed Well-Known Member

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    A couple of those guys I would say are accountants and have gone through the books, I know you don’t go on OTIB , but those guys often post about City’s finances and obviously know their stuff.
     
    #20

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