I didn’t actually, I thought it would be low given his profile. I’m guessing AP was rated 160s as she had the festival run in open class the year before.
Wow, finally got something right horse related this week!! I don’t think Laurinas mark should put anyone off, she just hasn’t met a G1 hurdler yet and therefore the handicapper can’t really put her on a “true” mark.
Her and Sharjah would be my two (order would possibly depend on the going) with BD no better than third. I was very impressed by Sharjah the last day and I think it speaks volumes that Willie is swerving Leopardstown with these two - get them to Cheltenham fresh and in peak form.
I don’t know what to make of the Irish form, it looks muddled to me and if Apples Jade hacks up tomorrow I wonder if they will tilt the CH way. People are with the jolly because of lack of opposition but if Laurina is anywhere near as good as Annie Power was then she will hack up.
You never know with the Gigginstown mob, they make some funny decisions sometimes and they were set on going with Samcro until he got sick. I do think the Champion Hurdle is a race they desperately want to win so it wouldn't surprise me if they ran Apples Jade (but they should have left her with Willie, she might have already had 2 in the bag by now).
Laurina is facing Buveur D'air now, not the Buveur D'air from two years ago. Buveur D'air was third in the Supreme Novices, behind Altior and Min. He went on to Aintree and won there, with hot favourite Limini thrashed into 3rd place. Buveur D'air had a major factor in keeping his hurdle rating lower in his next season and that was the fact that he went Novice Chasing. Despite winning his 2 Chases, it was decided to return him to hurdles and because he only ran once, in bad ground at Sandown, and won the race hard held, there was no opportunity to raise his handicap mark before the Champion Hurdle. Buveur D'air beat his field easily in that first Champion Hurdle. Has been's or not, Footpad was in that field and Sceau Royal, who are at least decent on their day and it doesn't seem that long ago that someone was trying to use Brain Power as a yardstick for Silver Streak's chances in the Champion Hurdle, yet Buveur D'air beat that horse 30 lengths in his first Champion Hurdle. If we compare Buveur D'air to Laurina, we see a mare who won an egg and spoon Mares Novices, compared to third to Altior and Min in a Supreme. There's a huge gulf there in what they achieved at their first Cheltenham's Sir Barney Chuckles said that he could not see a male horse giving 7 lbs to Laurina. That may turn out to be true but I would first ask Sir Barney to list the male horses Laurina has defeated thus far? Annie Power was a totally different scenario to Laurina. Annie Power was 8YO and actually went into the Champion Hurdle on a 162 mark that had dropped from her peak of 165, which was achieved roughly two years earlier. I always felt Annie Power was better at 2 and a half miles and her best ever run was at Aintree after her Champion Hurdle win, where she peaked at 170 on RPR and 166 on official ratings. Even if saying Annie Power was 162 and Laurina 155, it still leaves the latter 7 lbs short, which nullifies the allowance in a way. There could be more to come from Laurina but there needs to be and she hasn't faced anything like the opposition Buveur D'air has. The Henderson horse has been plagued by lack of opposition. He has faced loads of races with tiny fields where it has just been a case of ticking over until Cheltenham for the big one. He was given a naive and overconfident ride on quick ground last time and sadly, tomorrow faces another tiny field at ridiculous odds-on. Come the big day, I think Henderson will have him primed for the only race that really matters. If Laurina hacks up I will be shocked but I'll hold my hands up and hail a Champion.
Bad news, some of those second raters and sick horses are the same ones Sharjah beat last time. Only they were more second rate and sicker on that occasion.
I don’t particularly disagree with you here, but handicap marks are completely irrelevant in terms of championship races, especially in the modern era where the best don’t run in handicaps. I think you could give Laurina pretty much any handicap mark you’d like and you could argue it, either beating nothing or sluicing up and being a class apart. The key thing is we will hopefully find out how good she is, and that is purely down to the owners, as I’m sure Mullins would be very happy to smuggle her away in the Quevega mould. Personally I find Timeform fascinating with this sort of race and they have - Apple + BD 178 Melon 177 And Laurina down at 168p So they think she needs to be 10lbs better than her pure form suggests she is, and that is feasible. I’m surprised that Melon and Apple are so close to the reigning champion on ratings and if either win convincingly tomorrow it might be that he isn’t Timeform top rated when the festival comes around. I like Melon tomorrow.
Exactly my point - Buveur D'Air and Sharjah are at a very similar level form-wise this season. Which of Buveur D'Air's performances justify a 172 rating? For me he should be somewhere mid-160s, leaving very little between him and Sharjah (yet with a p next to Sharjah). I think Melon is a nearly horse and I would have gone novice chasing with him (hindsight is a wonderful thing but the Arkle looks very open this year with no real standout performer). I think Apple's Jade will kick his arse today and force the Gigginstown hand with regards to the Champion Hurdle.
I think Samcro was a lot worse behind Sharjah than he was against Buveur D'air. He stopped to nothing that day and connections were shocked that he finished behind Tombstone. In Buveur D'air's race Samcro had finished ahead of a good yardstick in Vision Des Flos, who has his limitations but is a solid 150 horse. Vision Des Flos' last seven completions have seen individual Racing Post Ratings of 150, 150, 150, 150, 149, 148, 150 so he's pretty reliable after his first wind op. Perhaps frustrated that he seems stuck at 150, they have given him further wind surgery since his run behind Brain Power in mid December. He runs against Buveur D'air again today. Anyway, Samcro beat him 13 lengths when behind Buveur D'air and that was not a sick horse's effort. Likewise, Buveur D'air beating Vision Des Flos 21 lengths is no mean feat. Brain Power only managed to defeat him by just over 6 lengths, yet his owner is said to be bullish about winning the Champion Hurdle this year. Samcro looked a lot more amiss behind Sharjah and with Melon unable to beat 66/1 shot Tombstone home, he has a lot to prove to get back in the picture. I reckon Apples Jade will see them off and perhaps become second favourite for Cheltenham if the trainer decides to give it a go.
Vision Des Flos is about as solid as strawberry yoghurt and I don't see him anywhere near 150 over a 2 mile trip. He might run to that over 2m 4f - 2m 6f but over the minimum trip he is readily outpaced and just plugs on. He will do the same today and Geraghty will have a sideways glance at Cobden 3 furlongs out before sailing past him motionless. No one can guess at the relative "crapness" of Samcro's runs this season. I don't think you can ignore the Christmas Hurdle. Buveur D'Air was beaten fair and square by the mare and finished only 6 lengths in front of the 150-rated If The Cap Fits. It was a shocking run, whichever way you look at it.
Whatever. I've got Buveur D'air at various rates and Apples Jade 14/1. We will see who was correct in March.
I've been Apples Jade but unfortunately missed her race today. Apparently impressive. Hope she goes for the Champion and does an Annie
The Champion Hurdle betting is a real farce. Apples Jade is as low as 7/4 now, yet Laurina is no bigger than 4s. 11/10 Buveur D'air in a couple of places but generally 11/8. They had the neck to cut Supasundae into 12's after his thrashing and even Samcro is as low as 9's. That's crazy stuff. If Apples Jade does run, surely Laurina drifts out like a barge on the day. I reckon Mullins will pull her out if Apples Jade gets the go ahead.