The Systems Thread

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Quietly watching this Nass, you have put so much in to achieve what is
so far a very good ROI - good luck for the months ahead.

The good thing about this work is that now it is set up, I just have to read the daily list it produces and put the bets on. It’s probably taking five minutes a day, which for the flat season is about as much time as I want to spend looking at the form/races!!

It’s then a case of recording the results (copy and paste and a macro does the rest) and jobs a good ‘un.

The only other thing I’m doing is a systematic check to see if a race is profitable before putting the bets on. I think this is more acute this year because of the lack of racing, so more qualifiers are running in same races.
 
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…...The only other thing I’m doing is a systematic check to see if a race is profitable before putting the bets on. I think this is more acute this year because of the lack of racing, so more qualifiers are running in same races.
Makes sense. Might miss out on a few small profits if a good priced winner has drifted. But overall probably best to leave the race alone I would guess
 
Have you checked the ROI on the individual systems Nass (ie are they contributing equally, or are any doing better to date)?
 
Sorry, another afterthought. Are you recording your selections in Access? Just interested as it sounds like a good option for subsequent analysis
 
Sorry, another afterthought. Are you recording your selections in Access? Just interested as it sounds like a good option for subsequent analysis
Have you checked the ROI on the individual systems Nass (ie are they contributing equally, or are any doing better to date)?
Makes sense. Might miss out on a few small profits if a good priced winner has drifted. But overall probably best to leave the race alone I would guess

Thanks Ron, I don't mind backing ones that are marginal early doors but if you've got three selections in a race and one is an even priced jolly, then I am going to swerve it. If its 15/8 then I would be with it.

I have all of the systems in a domain list, so I just match them up with the betfair export daily. This then feeds statistics such as the ROI for each system, and whilst it is early doors for the selections, it is quite interesting to see the course specific systems doing quite well (prior to Haydock today).

I am doing it all in google sheets, which means I can look at the information on mobile as well.
 
A frustrating day with a couple trading odds on in their runs and a forecast in one race that had the shorter of the two selections winning -

West End Charmer - 4.53 (4.48)
Lord North - 4.5 (4.43)
Golden Melody - 5.18 (5.12)

So 14.03 returned 22 bet (1 non runner)

-£7.97 for the day

+£16.17 to £1 level with a ROI of 14% (110 bets)
 
12:00 Chelmsford City Captain Bonny
12:00 Chelmsford City Talking Point
12:00 Chelmsford City Emerald Ensign
12:15 Haydock Lauded
12:45 Haydock Powertrain
12:45 Haydock Brad The Brief
12:45 Haydock Byline
12:45 Haydock Know No Limits
13:15 Haydock Iva Go
13:30 Chelmsford City Bristol Missile
14:15 Haydock Charlie D
14:45 Haydock Sir Charles Punch
14:45 Haydock High Flying Bird
15:05 Chelmsford City River Sprite
15:05 Chelmsford City Exotic Escape
15:15 Haydock Phuket Power
15:15 Haydock Mr Jones And Me
15:50 Haydock Production
15:50 Haydock Parys Mountain
16:15 Lingfield Red Carpet Queen
16:15 Lingfield Talbot
16:15 Lingfield Deliver The Dream
16:25 Haydock Pot Of Paint
 
Time Course Horse
13:05 Lingfield You've Charmed Me
14:15 Lingfield Pawpaw 2ND
14:25 Newmarket West End Charmer FORECAST 43.97
14:25 Newmarket Sky Defender

12:55 Haydock Spiorad
12:55 Haydock Harrovian 2ND
16:00 Lingfield Led Astray
12:55 Haydock El Ghazwani
18:30 Newmarket Breathless Times
18:30 Newmarket Daschas
13:30 Haydock Bucephalus
14:05 Haydock Fanny Logan 2ND
14:40 Haydock Lord North 1ST
15:50 Haydock Golden Melody FORECAST 18.92
15:50 Haydock Star Of Emaraaty

16:25 Haydock Betsey Trotter
16:25 Haydock Royal Intervention
16:25 Haydock Nina Bailarina
17:00 Haydock Garden Oasis
17:00 Haydock Critical Time
17:00 Haydock Dancing Rave 3RD
17:35 Haydock Sudona 2ND

18:10 Haydock Glorious Caesar

Frustrating You Say...Cross bar Central!
 
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I knew that was coming.....
Singles forcast
When 3 in the same race tricast Lol

Just do what you do and make it pay, then start looking deeper.
 
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12:00 Chelmsford City Captain Bonny
12:00 Chelmsford City Talking Point
12:00 Chelmsford City Emerald Ensign
12:15 Haydock Lauded
12:45 Haydock Powertrain
12:45 Haydock Brad The Brief
12:45 Haydock Byline
12:45 Haydock Know No Limits
13:15 Haydock Iva Go
13:30 Chelmsford City Bristol Missile
14:15 Haydock Charlie D
14:45 Haydock Sir Charles Punch
14:45 Haydock High Flying Bird
15:05 Chelmsford City River Sprite
15:05 Chelmsford City Exotic Escape
15:15 Haydock Phuket Power
15:15 Haydock Mr Jones And Me
15:50 Haydock Production
15:50 Haydock Parys Mountain
16:15 Lingfield Red Carpet Queen
16:15 Lingfield Talbot
16:15 Lingfield Deliver The Dream
16:25 Haydock Pot Of Paint


Lauded won at 4.6 - 4.53
Brad The Brief won at 4.10 - 4.10 (4 runners in race)
Talbot won at 4.7 - 4.64

Charlie D, Mr Jones And Me and Red Carpet Queen were non runners so 20 bets 13.27 returns 20 so -£6.73 for the systems

So back to +£9.44 to level £1 stakes

130 bets and a meagre ROI of 7%

Hopefully a better day tomorrow in terms of prices.
 
Big day tomorrow with -

12:45 Haydock Devious Company
13:15 Haydock Dark Spectre
13:15 Haydock Magic Voice
13:15 Haydock Chairmanic
13:45 Haydock Lucky Poppy
13:45 Haydock Lead Singer
14:15 Haydock Dick Datchery
14:15 Haydock Sermon
14:15 Haydock Brookside Banner
14:45 Haydock Jonah Jones
14:45 Haydock She Can Boogie
14:45 Haydock Eeh Bah Gum
15:15 Haydock Blackheath
15:15 Haydock Muscika
15:15 Haydock Intisaab
15:45 Haydock Cap Francais
15:45 Haydock Markazi
15:45 Haydock Just Hiss
16:40 Chelmsford City Lanika
16:40 Chelmsford City Tattoo
16:50 Haydock Pattaya
16:50 Haydock Will Sommers
17:15 Chelmsford City Seattle Rock
17:20 Haydock Bollin Neil
17:20 Haydock Matthew Flinders
17:20 Haydock Celestial Bliss
17:20 Haydock Camahawk
17:30 Wolverhampton High Applause
17:30 Wolverhampton Shine That Light
17:45 Chelmsford City Healing Power
18:00 Wolverhampton Sampers Seven
20:30 Wolverhampton Competition
 
Devious Company won at 5.17 (5.09)
Cap Francais won at 5.08 (5.02) (well supported in the market)

Everything else lost or didn't run (31 bets) 10.09 returns

- 20.91 to £1 levels

first dip under levels for a while -£11.47 to £1 level

A very frustrating day with more than one big priced horse trading low in running (one hit 1.03) but being beaten.

The swings and roundabouts of this game!!


12:45 Pontefract Tinochio
12:45 Pontefract Dandy's Max
13:45 Pontefract Midnite Bride
13:45 Pontefract Internationalangel
13:45 Pontefract Dublin Rocker
14:20 Pontefract Sands Of Giza
14:20 Pontefract Magical Moment
14:20 Pontefract Hi Harry
15:50 Pontefract Doctor Cross
16:20 Pontefract Defence Treaty
16:20 Pontefract Music Seeker
17:10 Yarmouth Sea Of Marmoon
17:10 Yarmouth Bulldozer
17:20 Wolverhampton Zambezi Magic
18:10 Yarmouth Simba Samba
19:15 Yarmouth Mythical Madness
19:45 Yarmouth Molly Mai
20:15 Yarmouth Grimsthorpe Castle
21:00 Kempton High Shine
 
So the first attempt didn't go too well, a couple of interesting points came out of the first run...

1 - Some of the selections were no hopers that I wouldn't be backing if they weren't within the system frameworks - so i've been back through the systems and reduced them to horses under 33/1 SP, and that returns a greater ROI and yield. So to do this, I've got to wait until the day of the race and see how they are forming in the market, anything that is trading at 70+ on the exchange will be removed from the bets, unless an obvious reason to back (big field handicaps being the prime one)

2 - Too many selections in the same race, these were often in the juvenile races and those at select courses. The key here is understanding that those races could take up the most of the stakes for the day. To resolve this, I am limiting these selections to 5 in a race at £2 maximum a race.

5 in race £2
4 in race £2.50
3 in race £3.30
2 in race £5
1 in race £5

3 - Take a look at systems on handicaps versus other forms of races. I noticed that lots were being beaten in older age maidens who were running against big yards at long prices. I will check the systems to make sure I am betting on the profitable angle here.

4 - As Oddy Termed them "****er bets" - set a framework of when to not back favourites in bets that aren't favourable (i.e under evens with two selections in the race).
 
Are any of the individual systems more profitable at different stages in the season for any particular reason? Is there any way of telling if certain systems can be ignored it the stable is out of form? For example if a trainer has a high strike rate for first time out winners, this could be misleading if there has been a bug in the yard that set them back and the yard sends them out for a blow out before striking second time out. Of course, he/she may have that strike rate because he/she wouldn't run them until they are ready to win - so that may not be a good example
 
Are any of the individual systems more profitable at different stages in the season for any particular reason? Is there any way of telling if certain systems can be ignored it the stable is out of form? For example if a trainer has a high strike rate for first time out winners, this could be misleading if there has been a bug in the yard that set them back and the yard sends them out for a blow out before striking second time out. Of course, he/she may have that strike rate because he/she wouldn't run them until they are ready to win - so that may not be a good example


Is there any way of telling if certain systems can be ignored it the stable is out of form?

That is the key question, for instance one of the system has 18 losers from one trainer, but he has lots of runners tomorrow who could easily pop up and win at decent prices.

I've checked them for seasonality, and they seem pretty consistent (which I guess takes into account when some trainers are in good form and others aren't) and they spread across multiple yards/sires/etc.

Key is to be patient but also learn as I go.
 
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So the first few of todays selections and a few thoughts too.

Time Course Horse
12:15 Doncaster Uncle Jumbo - This system is going well up £68 to £1 level this year. However this jockey and trainer combination aren't doing well this year with this type of race. £2

12:35 Goodwood Tulip Fields - These two come from same system. Today is first day for them. £5 each
12:35 Goodwood Junkanoo - £5 as above


12:50 Doncaster Dubai Fountain - This system is at +£8 for the season. £5

13:10 Goodwood Lullaby Moon - The first two come come from same system as 12:15. £3.30
13:10 Goodwood Fille D'Or - £3.30
13:10 Goodwood Relative Choice - £3.30 - This is same system as the 12:35


13:35 Newmarket Album - These come from a system that is +£12 for the season. However that would be much higher if we took out the Stuart Williams horses!! £5
13:35 Newmarket Agent Shiftwell £5

So for the races up to and including the 13:35

£36.90 staked
 
So the first few of todays selections and a few thoughts too.

Time Course Horse
12:15 Doncaster Uncle Jumbo - This system is going well up £68 to £1 level this year. However this jockey and trainer combination aren't doing well this year with this type of race. £2

12:35 Goodwood Tulip Fields - These two come from same system. Today is first day for them. £5 each
12:35 Goodwood Junkanoo - £5 as above


12:50 Doncaster Dubai Fountain - This system is at +£8 for the season. £5

13:10 Goodwood Lullaby Moon - The first two come come from same system as 12:15. £3.30
13:10 Goodwood Fille D'Or - £3.30
13:10 Goodwood Relative Choice - £3.30 - This is same system as the 12:35


13:35 Newmarket Album - These come from a system that is +£12 for the season. However that would be much higher if we took out the Stuart Williams horses!! £5
13:35 Newmarket Agent Shiftwell £5

So for the races up to and including the 13:35

£36.90 staked
That's a great start Naas
 
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