The Systems Thread
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Great. So I'll look out for most of those when they run at Newcastle in sprints and, provided they haven't stepped up in class or been weighted out of contention and are first out of the gate and not odds on after 50 yards, lump on. Unless there is a horse in the race with faster times on the surface and/or a springer in the market and/or another in the race trained by Charlie Appleby, Roger Charlton, Stoute, Gosden or Haggas: Then if trained by Burke or Easterby and only one contender, double the stake
Better get a VPN and open an account
So one of the other early starting (sort of) courses is Newmarket. Hopefully these are of use to people
Trainers
Newmarket gives some interesting results for trainers, with Dean Ivory, Stuart Williams, Martyn Meade and Mark Johnston all returning profit of over £100 to £1 level stakes. Ivory leads the way with £193 to level stake, with ten winners and a strike rate of 15%.
Charlie Appleby is doing fantastically well with his runners at Newmarket, with 102 winners from 396 runners, with a profit of £62 to £1 level stakes with a win percentage of just over 25%! That is better than A O'Brien who has a 20% strike rate. Suroor and Gosden are the next big trainers in terms of percentages with 19% each.
All of these trainers return a profit on stakes at BSP.
Jockeys
The top jockeys on BSP returns are Sean Levey, Mosse, Shoemark and Adam Kirby, all having a strike rate of 10% or more.
William Buick is the top regular jockey in terms of win %, having a 21% strike rate with 94 winners from 445 rides. He also has a positive BSP.
Dettori, Doyle and Moore are all on 17% strike rate, but only Dettori returns a profit to bsp of those three.
Spencer is worst on PL and has a strike rate of only 7%, suggesting that avoiding his runners is a profitable angle. Hanagan and Donohoe are also high in the loss to level stakes. Donohoe strike rate is 2%!!
Draw
In all races at Newmarket (both courses) stalls 7, 8 and 9 all return a profit to BSP. However given the commission of 2% that would rule out most of the profit. Only 8 stalls out of the 28 max field are profitable and most of those are from big price outliers.
Stalls 3,4,5,6 are major negatives to BSP yet all have strike rates of around 10%.
Headgear and Operations
Tongue tie again does well here, with profit of £142 to level stakes and a ROI of 40%. Wind Surgery (first and second time out) both are high on the list too, with ROI's of 145%+ for both.
All forms of headgear are a negative.
Pace
20% strike rate for horses that led and a massive profit of £846 to level stakes and a ROI of 55%. Prominent racers are also profitable but with a much lower ROI.
Held up horses are a major negative, which perhaps explains the Jamie Spencer figures above.
Newmarket has a few strong angles, with big trainers doing well and a few smaller "shrewd" yards doing very well to BSP. Following those angles is profitable and can help return profit if shared with good jockeys at the course and those who race prominently or preferably lead.
Trainers
Newmarket gives some interesting results for trainers, with Dean Ivory, Stuart Williams, Martyn Meade and Mark Johnston all returning profit of over £100 to £1 level stakes. Ivory leads the way with £193 to level stake, with ten winners and a strike rate of 15%.
Charlie Appleby is doing fantastically well with his runners at Newmarket, with 102 winners from 396 runners, with a profit of £62 to £1 level stakes with a win percentage of just over 25%! That is better than A O'Brien who has a 20% strike rate. Suroor and Gosden are the next big trainers in terms of percentages with 19% each.
All of these trainers return a profit on stakes at BSP.
Jockeys
The top jockeys on BSP returns are Sean Levey, Mosse, Shoemark and Adam Kirby, all having a strike rate of 10% or more.
William Buick is the top regular jockey in terms of win %, having a 21% strike rate with 94 winners from 445 rides. He also has a positive BSP.
Dettori, Doyle and Moore are all on 17% strike rate, but only Dettori returns a profit to bsp of those three.
Spencer is worst on PL and has a strike rate of only 7%, suggesting that avoiding his runners is a profitable angle. Hanagan and Donohoe are also high in the loss to level stakes. Donohoe strike rate is 2%!!
Draw
In all races at Newmarket (both courses) stalls 7, 8 and 9 all return a profit to BSP. However given the commission of 2% that would rule out most of the profit. Only 8 stalls out of the 28 max field are profitable and most of those are from big price outliers.
Stalls 3,4,5,6 are major negatives to BSP yet all have strike rates of around 10%.
Headgear and Operations
Tongue tie again does well here, with profit of £142 to level stakes and a ROI of 40%. Wind Surgery (first and second time out) both are high on the list too, with ROI's of 145%+ for both.
All forms of headgear are a negative.
Pace
20% strike rate for horses that led and a massive profit of £846 to level stakes and a ROI of 55%. Prominent racers are also profitable but with a much lower ROI.
Held up horses are a major negative, which perhaps explains the Jamie Spencer figures above.
Newmarket has a few strong angles, with big trainers doing well and a few smaller "shrewd" yards doing very well to BSP. Following those angles is profitable and can help return profit if shared with good jockeys at the course and those who race prominently or preferably lead.
Kempton Park
Trainers
Trainers profit to level £1 stake is amazing, with Jonathan Portman leading the way with £536 return. He has 12 winners from 160 runners so its big priced winners that are doing his numbers the world of good. Of the bigger yards, Clive Cox, Roger Charlton and Dean Ivory all do well, with profits of over £100 to level stakes for all.
In terms of strike rate, Charlie Appleby leads the way with 31%, with Gosden second with 27% and Suroor, Archie Watson and Roger Varian all around 22%. Interestingly despite his high win % backing Appleby blind would give a loss to BSP! Gosden however would be profitable with a ROI of 28%.
Jockeys
Daniel Muscutt leads the way with Richard Kingscote and Luke Morris doing well to profit BSP. Kingscote has a £175 profit whilst Morris is £127 profit.
Buick again heads the strike rate for jockeys who regularly ride the course, with 28% strike rate. Frankie Dettori actually has a better strike rate but only has had 28 rides at the course since 2015. James Doyle is on 25% and Atzeni on 22%.
On the other side Shane Kelly has the worst loss to level stakes, with Kieran O'Neill and Charles Bishop also high on that list. Interestingly Kirby is high on the list too.
Draw
Only three stalls have profit to bsp, only stall 14 would be profitable after taking commission into account. Interestingly (perhaps) when you look at stall 2 it is the 11 furlong distance that is the one to note. This distance has a profit of £354 with a ROI of 135%.
Stall one does best at 12 furlongs with a 73% ROI, which suggests that the low draw is an advantage over these trips.
Headgear and Operations
It is that tongue tie angle here again, with a profit of £488 to level stakes and a ROI of 65%. Visor first time does well too with £228 profit and ROI of 111%.
Hoods are a negative as are visors and cheekpiece runners.
Pace
This is where Kempton gets interesting, horses that have let at Kempton have a ROI of 50% with a massive profit of £1214 to level £1 stakes. Prominent runners are also favoured here with a ROI of 14% and a profit of £1176 to level stakes at BSP. This shows that you want to be with horses who race towards the head of the field.
Kempton again is a track where big yards send good horses and if Frankie Dettori goes to ride one, then its a good sign for those runners (although overbet). The interesting thing for me is that backing by draw is a negative over most trips, so following the mantra of needing to be drawn low will send your bank on a downwards spiral too. However, find pace angles and you can be in clover.
Trainers
Trainers profit to level £1 stake is amazing, with Jonathan Portman leading the way with £536 return. He has 12 winners from 160 runners so its big priced winners that are doing his numbers the world of good. Of the bigger yards, Clive Cox, Roger Charlton and Dean Ivory all do well, with profits of over £100 to level stakes for all.
In terms of strike rate, Charlie Appleby leads the way with 31%, with Gosden second with 27% and Suroor, Archie Watson and Roger Varian all around 22%. Interestingly despite his high win % backing Appleby blind would give a loss to BSP! Gosden however would be profitable with a ROI of 28%.
Jockeys
Daniel Muscutt leads the way with Richard Kingscote and Luke Morris doing well to profit BSP. Kingscote has a £175 profit whilst Morris is £127 profit.
Buick again heads the strike rate for jockeys who regularly ride the course, with 28% strike rate. Frankie Dettori actually has a better strike rate but only has had 28 rides at the course since 2015. James Doyle is on 25% and Atzeni on 22%.
On the other side Shane Kelly has the worst loss to level stakes, with Kieran O'Neill and Charles Bishop also high on that list. Interestingly Kirby is high on the list too.
Draw
Only three stalls have profit to bsp, only stall 14 would be profitable after taking commission into account. Interestingly (perhaps) when you look at stall 2 it is the 11 furlong distance that is the one to note. This distance has a profit of £354 with a ROI of 135%.
Stall one does best at 12 furlongs with a 73% ROI, which suggests that the low draw is an advantage over these trips.
Headgear and Operations
It is that tongue tie angle here again, with a profit of £488 to level stakes and a ROI of 65%. Visor first time does well too with £228 profit and ROI of 111%.
Hoods are a negative as are visors and cheekpiece runners.
Pace
This is where Kempton gets interesting, horses that have let at Kempton have a ROI of 50% with a massive profit of £1214 to level £1 stakes. Prominent runners are also favoured here with a ROI of 14% and a profit of £1176 to level stakes at BSP. This shows that you want to be with horses who race towards the head of the field.
Kempton again is a track where big yards send good horses and if Frankie Dettori goes to ride one, then its a good sign for those runners (although overbet). The interesting thing for me is that backing by draw is a negative over most trips, so following the mantra of needing to be drawn low will send your bank on a downwards spiral too. However, find pace angles and you can be in clover.
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Yarmouth
Trainers
Yarmouth is an interesting track to be included in the early season list and has a few interesting angles. Philip McBride has a 20% strike rate here with a profit of £77 to £1 level stakes and a ROI of 145%. Mark Johnston does well here and again has a good profit and ROI of 84%. Chris Dwyer and David Simcock are also work noting with Yarmouth runners.
Gosden leads the way in terms of strike rate for runners, with 37%, Simon Crisford has 30%, Ed Vaughan has 28%. All are profitable to BSP level stakes.
Jockeys
Jamie Spencer leads the way with £108 profit to £1 level. He has a ROI of 55% too and a strike rate of near 25%. Pat Cosgrave his high in the list as is Gabriele Malune! Malune has a ROI of 153%.
Frankie Dettori leads the way in terms of strike rate with 43%! Ryan Moore has 30% and Atzeni 25%. Spencer, Doyle and SDS are all between 23 and 25%. All bar Moore return a profit to BSP.
Draw
Four stalls return a profit to BSP, but its stall 11 that has the highest profit and ROI, despite having a strike rate of only 6%. Stall 6 has a decent strike rate and a ROI of 23% on BSP.
Headgear and Operations
This course differs a little from the norm here, it is Visor first time that leads the way with a ROI of 98% and a profit of £60 to level stakes. Tongue tie is a positive still, but so is hooded first time.
Cheekpieced runners are a negative as are hooded (not first time). There course hasn't seen a Wind Surgery first time winner from the 13 that have raced.
Pace
The pace angle is less interesting than at other courses, with prominent runners doing best according to BSP results. It is only marginal though. Held up horses provide a loss in general.
Yarmouth is interesting, it is a course for specialists like McBride and if you can back trainers who do well with runners then you should do well. Spencer doing so well at the course is interesting and can also be an angle in here.
Trainers
Yarmouth is an interesting track to be included in the early season list and has a few interesting angles. Philip McBride has a 20% strike rate here with a profit of £77 to £1 level stakes and a ROI of 145%. Mark Johnston does well here and again has a good profit and ROI of 84%. Chris Dwyer and David Simcock are also work noting with Yarmouth runners.
Gosden leads the way in terms of strike rate for runners, with 37%, Simon Crisford has 30%, Ed Vaughan has 28%. All are profitable to BSP level stakes.
Jockeys
Jamie Spencer leads the way with £108 profit to £1 level. He has a ROI of 55% too and a strike rate of near 25%. Pat Cosgrave his high in the list as is Gabriele Malune! Malune has a ROI of 153%.
Frankie Dettori leads the way in terms of strike rate with 43%! Ryan Moore has 30% and Atzeni 25%. Spencer, Doyle and SDS are all between 23 and 25%. All bar Moore return a profit to BSP.
Draw
Four stalls return a profit to BSP, but its stall 11 that has the highest profit and ROI, despite having a strike rate of only 6%. Stall 6 has a decent strike rate and a ROI of 23% on BSP.
Headgear and Operations
This course differs a little from the norm here, it is Visor first time that leads the way with a ROI of 98% and a profit of £60 to level stakes. Tongue tie is a positive still, but so is hooded first time.
Cheekpieced runners are a negative as are hooded (not first time). There course hasn't seen a Wind Surgery first time winner from the 13 that have raced.
Pace
The pace angle is less interesting than at other courses, with prominent runners doing best according to BSP results. It is only marginal though. Held up horses provide a loss in general.
Yarmouth is interesting, it is a course for specialists like McBride and if you can back trainers who do well with runners then you should do well. Spencer doing so well at the course is interesting and can also be an angle in here.
Cheers Nass. I find it strange that the wind surgery and headgear stats vary by track. Can't help thinking this might be something to do with the trainers who frequent specific tracks. Can you analyse these two categories by trainer, regardless of track
You ask so much!
Tongue tie -
Stuart Williams has had 104 winners from 684 runners with a profit of £294 and ROI of 43%.
Tim Easterby 22 winners from 173 ROI of 41%.
Best strike rate is Willie Mullins with his flat runners and AOB with 22% and 21% respectively. Gosden is at 20% with 19 from 91 runners.
Opposite side of this is Mssr Attwater with 2 winners from 56 and Hughie Morrison with 12 from 141.
Wind Surgery 1st time out
Kevin Ryan has had most winners with this angle with 4 from 20 (highest number of runners with wind surgery), and a profit of £17. Stoute is 3 from 9 with a small profit whilst Charlie Hills is 3 from 6 and a profit of £25.
Karl Burke has had 16 runners and 0 winners
Wind Surgery 2nd time out
Kevin Ryan is 0 from 16 with 2nd time out. Burke is 1 from 12. Hannon, Dagleish, Beckett, Cole and Dascombe all have 2 winners from this angle. Beckett is 2 from 3 from this angle!!
Blinkers first time
Gosden is 20 from 102 runners but a loss at BSP. Beckett is 18 from 85 and a postive at SP as is Hannon 17 from 118. AOB is 15 from 75 and a positive at SP too.
Scott Dixon leads the Profit with £445 to level stakes with 3 winners from 32!! Fahey and Hannon are next best at BSP and are probably the longer term profitability angles.
Visor first time
Stoute leads this with 11 winners from 55 and a small profit at BSP. Scott Dixon is 3 from 10 with a profit too.
Cheekpieces first time
Haggas leads the way here with 30 from 127 with Sir Mark Prescottt Bt second with 26 from 98. Both profitable to bsp. Fahey, Appleby and Suroor round off the top five.
Robert Cowell is the opposite end. 7 from 91 and a major loss. Gosden is only 14 from 108 and a biggish loss too.
Sorry, but you are a fountain of knowledge. Whenever you produce these stats I'm looking for some logic that should apply equally to the future.
I only jest, glad that you are asking questions, it means that we can look at the data in different ways. After the conversation this morning I thought I would take a look at John Gosden as a trainer.
All Weather
27.5% strike rate
315 winners (expected 304)
Profit £46 to £1 level stakes (commission would make that into a negative)
84 from 313 at Kempton (Expected 72 wins) with profit of £87 and ROI of 28%
43 from 118 at Newcastled (38 expected) second best but a loss on stakes when commision is taken into account
Loss at all other tracks (overbet)
Turf
21.8% strike rate
482 winners (475 expected)
Profit of £141 to level stakes (slightly positive after commission)
102 winners from 545 at Newmarket (loss after commission)
46 from 277 at Ascot (loss after commission)
Salisbury best on returns - 15 winners from 53 with Profit of £64 and ROI of 121%
Wetherby 5 from 10 with ROI of 83%
Chepstow 6 from 9 with ROI of 68%
Not many profitable tracks after commission
Headgear
Hood first time - 14 winners from 49 - ROI 226%
Hood generally - 31 from 110 - ROI 50%
Tongue Tie - 19 from 91 - loss after commission
Loss for visor, blinkers and cheekpieces
Looks like Gosden knows when a hood will bring about an improvement, after which the punters latch on
So we have the declarations for Monday (although no word from Government).
Interestingly we have some first time for new trainers horses -
Time Horse Trainer
13:00 Heavenly Tale Tristan Davidson
13:00 Stone Mason Michael Appleby
13:35 Indian Viceroy Grant Tuer
14:10 Ejtilaab Ian Williams
14:10 Edraak Michael Appleby
15:20 Dalton Paul Midgley
15:20 True Blue Moon Tim Easterby
15:20 I Am A Dreamer Paul Midgley
15:55 Captain Corcoran Eric Alston
15:55 Iva Reflection Tim Easterby
15:55 Written Broadcast Jedd O'Keeffe
15:55 Rock Of Diamonds Simon and Ed Crisford
17:05 Anythingtoday Roger Fell
17:05 Bolder Bob Grant Tuer
18:15 Wise Glory Simon and Ed Crisford
18:15 Miss Seery Richard Fahey
So lets have a look at the trainers records with horses switching from other yards, with their all weather runners (listed by number of winners)-
Trainer Runners Winners Win S/R IV EX Wins P/L Betfair ROI Betfair
Michael Appleby 161 30 18.63 1.85 20.46 85.58 53.16
Ian Williams 86 5 5.81 0.58 7.81 -56.99 -66.27
Richard Fahey 24 4 16.67 1.64 2.62 11.34 47.25
Roger Fell 40 3 7.5 0.77 2.38 -22.08 -55.21
Paul Midgley 26 2 7.69 0.72 1.79 16.18 62.23
Tim Easterby 7 1 14.29 1.47 0.41 7.4 105.67
Jedd O'Keeffe 8 1 12.5 1.13 0.85 6.69 83.63
Eric Alston 3 1 33.33 3.67 0.44 -0.49 -16.36
Tristan Davidson 7 0 0 0 1.22 -7 -100
Grant Tuer 10 0 0 0 0.7 -10 -100
This suggests we want to be looking at Appleby runners first time out after switching, similarly the Fahey Yard with their 16.6% strike rate.
So the below would be of interest for further study-
1300 Stone Mason
14:10 Edraak
18:15 Miss Seery
Interestingly we have some first time for new trainers horses -
Time Horse Trainer
13:00 Heavenly Tale Tristan Davidson
13:00 Stone Mason Michael Appleby
13:35 Indian Viceroy Grant Tuer
14:10 Ejtilaab Ian Williams
14:10 Edraak Michael Appleby
15:20 Dalton Paul Midgley
15:20 True Blue Moon Tim Easterby
15:20 I Am A Dreamer Paul Midgley
15:55 Captain Corcoran Eric Alston
15:55 Iva Reflection Tim Easterby
15:55 Written Broadcast Jedd O'Keeffe
15:55 Rock Of Diamonds Simon and Ed Crisford
17:05 Anythingtoday Roger Fell
17:05 Bolder Bob Grant Tuer
18:15 Wise Glory Simon and Ed Crisford
18:15 Miss Seery Richard Fahey
So lets have a look at the trainers records with horses switching from other yards, with their all weather runners (listed by number of winners)-
Trainer Runners Winners Win S/R IV EX Wins P/L Betfair ROI Betfair
Michael Appleby 161 30 18.63 1.85 20.46 85.58 53.16
Ian Williams 86 5 5.81 0.58 7.81 -56.99 -66.27
Richard Fahey 24 4 16.67 1.64 2.62 11.34 47.25
Roger Fell 40 3 7.5 0.77 2.38 -22.08 -55.21
Paul Midgley 26 2 7.69 0.72 1.79 16.18 62.23
Tim Easterby 7 1 14.29 1.47 0.41 7.4 105.67
Jedd O'Keeffe 8 1 12.5 1.13 0.85 6.69 83.63
Eric Alston 3 1 33.33 3.67 0.44 -0.49 -16.36
Tristan Davidson 7 0 0 0 1.22 -7 -100
Grant Tuer 10 0 0 0 0.7 -10 -100
This suggests we want to be looking at Appleby runners first time out after switching, similarly the Fahey Yard with their 16.6% strike rate.
So the below would be of interest for further study-
1300 Stone Mason
14:10 Edraak
18:15 Miss Seery
How about fast starters, in 5f races with a bend, who can get 2 metres clear from the gate and run 2 metres or less off the rail (when against the rail is the fastest part of the course). The others won't be able to get past unless they come wide (assuming they adhere to social distancing rules)
So let's have a test - will post the system horses daily for the first week. All to win at level stakes at BSP.
Day 1 - 1st - Newcastle
13:00 - Stone Mason
14:10 - Edraak
Plenty of horses down for Tuesday and Wednesday
Day 1 - 1st - Newcastle
13:00 - Stone Mason
14:10 - Edraak
Plenty of horses down for Tuesday and Wednesday
So 1 from 2 (going to do results to £1 levels for ease of reader)
Edraak BSP 14.71 = £14.42 (2% commission)
Stone Mason BSP 2.94 = -£1
£13.42 to level stakes after day one
2 bets
Edraak BSP 14.71 = £14.42 (2% commission)
Stone Mason BSP 2.94 = -£1
£13.42 to level stakes after day one
2 bets