The Systems Thread
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I had a look at this earlier, I would say on the flat it is less that 1% of selections that are coming up the same in multiple systems, these are mainly on the all weather too. The record for these was pretty similar to the average for each of the systems in terms of strike rate. I plan to back them £2 for each system they appear in.
Nass, do you have any stats on laying. Eg if you laid every odds on fav at certain courses or in certain types of racing or when the going is very soft, favs first time on a surface, favs stepping up/down in distance, favs gone up x pound for last win, favs on debut etc
Ron,
All this is 2015 onwards -
If you laid every favourite (at the off and at BSP) in flat turf races you'd be down £-642 from £1 level stakes with a return on investment of -3%. This shows that blind laying of favourites in flat turf races isn't a profitable thing to do!
So, how does that look by courses?
Fourteen courses have a profit to level stakes for laying favourites, with the top three Brighton (£71), Salisbury (£54) and Newbury (£45). Here only Brighton and Salisbury have a ROI of over 10%. So perhaps if you wanted to lay favourites by tracks, you'd concentrate on those two for a decent ROI.
How about by trainer?
Plenty of trainers are shown as profitable by laying their favourites, with Tim Easterby, Richard Hughes, David Barron and John Quinn being the top four. Interestingly here, it is more about the price of their favourites than the strike rates, all have strike rates of near or over 20%. ROI of laying trainers with favourites can be much higher you can get 31% ROI for laying Richard Hughes and Robert Cowell favourites on the turf for example.
By Age?
The only age that is a profitable lay is 6 year old favourites. 5% ROI.
I will do more of a study on the other aspects of your post later Ron.
All this is 2015 onwards -
If you laid every favourite (at the off and at BSP) in flat turf races you'd be down £-642 from £1 level stakes with a return on investment of -3%. This shows that blind laying of favourites in flat turf races isn't a profitable thing to do!
So, how does that look by courses?
Fourteen courses have a profit to level stakes for laying favourites, with the top three Brighton (£71), Salisbury (£54) and Newbury (£45). Here only Brighton and Salisbury have a ROI of over 10%. So perhaps if you wanted to lay favourites by tracks, you'd concentrate on those two for a decent ROI.
How about by trainer?
Plenty of trainers are shown as profitable by laying their favourites, with Tim Easterby, Richard Hughes, David Barron and John Quinn being the top four. Interestingly here, it is more about the price of their favourites than the strike rates, all have strike rates of near or over 20%. ROI of laying trainers with favourites can be much higher you can get 31% ROI for laying Richard Hughes and Robert Cowell favourites on the turf for example.
By Age?
The only age that is a profitable lay is 6 year old favourites. 5% ROI.
I will do more of a study on the other aspects of your post later Ron.
So by Days Since Last Run?
Only positive here is laying horses who ran between 90 and 150 days before their next run. Not a particularly profitable though with a ROI of 10% from a relatively small pool of runners.
By Race Type
Surprisingly to me, it is Conditions races that are profitable here with a ROI of 12%. Classified races are second in this with a ROI of 8%. It is a negative for handicaps, sellers and Group races!!
By official going
Only positive here is soft going. Even that only has a ROI of 0.5%!
By Weight Rank
In handicaps laying top weight favourites is a positive but with only a tiny ROI. Interestingly here if you lay 11th and 13th ranked in the handicap you get a much better ROI. Perhaps this shows that favourites towards the bottom of the handicap are often shorter than they should be.
First Time Out Runners
If you lay favourites who are making their racecourse debut you'd be on a negative return.
First Run Since Gelding
This is a positive return of 5% ROI. Again suggesting this angle is overbet.
Only positive here is laying horses who ran between 90 and 150 days before their next run. Not a particularly profitable though with a ROI of 10% from a relatively small pool of runners.
By Race Type
Surprisingly to me, it is Conditions races that are profitable here with a ROI of 12%. Classified races are second in this with a ROI of 8%. It is a negative for handicaps, sellers and Group races!!
By official going
Only positive here is soft going. Even that only has a ROI of 0.5%!
By Weight Rank
In handicaps laying top weight favourites is a positive but with only a tiny ROI. Interestingly here if you lay 11th and 13th ranked in the handicap you get a much better ROI. Perhaps this shows that favourites towards the bottom of the handicap are often shorter than they should be.
First Time Out Runners
If you lay favourites who are making their racecourse debut you'd be on a negative return.
First Run Since Gelding
This is a positive return of 5% ROI. Again suggesting this angle is overbet.
I tend to avoid training guides, if something isn't usable then I don't find that training on it would make much of a difference. I have to do enough training at work for programming languages etc to do them in my own time too.
Proform is really intuitive and I think it will prove invaluable to my punting.
Oddy. Grow up.
I know what you mean. I don't recall looking at any training guides either. I certainly haven't looked at any that Proform have sent me. It's far too complex for me to get into; just don't have the time. But i do appreciate how valuable it can be and can see how you will make good use of itI tend to avoid training guides, if something isn't usable then I don't find that training on it would make much of a difference. I have to do enough training at work for programming languages etc to do them in my own time too.
Proform is really intuitive and I think it will prove invaluable to my punting.
Oddy. Grow up.
Have you worked out the ROI you might expect to get after deducting the product costs. I once thought about using the Timeform Jury to do the work for me (the lazy sod that I am). They make a profit every year but I came to the conclusion that, after offsetting the cost of the service, it wasn't worth it
Yeah I worked out for 2020, 2019 and 2018 the ROI including full cost of the software and also commission of betfair being 5% (it is now 2% if you choose that plan) that came out at
2020 - 20% ROI so far
2019 - 26% ROI
2018 - 13% ROI
I was aiming for 10% ROI to be viable and work the risk. If it works well I would look at increasing stakes etc.
Given Newcastle looks set to be the first racecourse back in action after the shutdown, a few pointers for the course and its "all weather" racing.
Trainers
Karl Burke and Mick Easterby are top on the P/L to BSP at the track and both operate with a higher than 10% strike rate. Backing Burke horses blind you would be up £200 to £1 level stakes with his 250 runners. Easterby rates at £174 from 225 runners.
If you want to back trainers with good win % you need to be looking at raiders from Charlie Appleby, Roger Charlton and the three big guns of Stoute, Gosden and Haggas. All Five of these have a win strike rate of over 35%!! and all have positive returns to BSP.
Interestingly Mick Appleby has the second worst loss to BSP of trainers at the course with the Fell yard being the only one with a worse return. These two have 8% strike rates and losses of -£74 and -£96 to £1 level stakes for the pair. Also in the negative column are Jardine, O'Meara, J Quinn and Tinkler.
Also interestingly Micky Hammond has only had one winner from 54 runners at the track!
Jockeys
Shane Gray tops the returns to BSP at Newcastle with £290 to £1 level stakes. He only has a strike rate of 6% and this shows that he has won on big outsiders. Less surprisingly Ben Curtis is high in the list, alongside two jockeys I have down as All Weather specialists in Phil Dennis and Callum Rodriguez. Curtis is £203 profit to £1 level stakes and has a 17% strike rate.
The jockeys with highest strike rates are those that are associated with bigger establishments with Crowley topping the list on 39% from Doyle & Havlin. Interestingly Jamie Spencer does well at Newcastle in terms of winners with 24% strike rate. Perhaps indicating that the course is suitable for his style of riding.
Surprisingly the biggest losses to level stakes are those jockeys that are northern based, showing that riding masses of runners means that they don't look a profitable angle. Top of the list is Graham Lee, from Paul Mulrennan and James Sullivan. All three have poor strike rates of under 8% too.
Draw
In all races over the mile or shorter the stall that has the best profit to level stakes is stall 8. Amazingly this stall is up £588.26 to level £1 stake. Then a ROI of 69% too!! It also has a strike rate of 11% which leads the way.
Interestingly the worst stall for ROI is stall 13 with -31% followed by stall 9 with -28%. Perhaps this shows that stalls aren't necessarily a good thing to be backing by!
Headgear and Operations
Of all of the different factors we have two that stand out massively at Newcastle. Tongue Tied first time is 10 winners from 88 runners, with a profit of 149 for £1 level stakes and a ROI of 170%. Similarly hood first time is 10 from 113 with a profit of £116.79 and a ROI of 103%.
Tongue tie generally is also a strong positive with 55 winners from 417 runners and a profit of £254 to level £1 stake with ROI of 61%. Unsurprisingly hood and tongue tie is also a positive.
Surprisingly then hooded runners are a major negative on their own with a loss of £200 to level stake.
Horses with cheekpieces on is the worst of all on loss to level stakes. A loss of £481.22 to level stakes.
Pace
This surprises me, 12% of horses that lead at Newcastle from the start win their races, and return a profit of £228 to level stakes and a ROI of 14%.
So when you look at the distances of races that those who led have won it makes interesting reading and again surprising to me. Five and Six furlong races are those that come out with big profits to level stakes and big ROI too. In face other than those two distances, the mile is the only other that has a positive return.
Perhaps we punters overbet those held up horses at Newcastle, making betting against the trend an interesting angle over sprint trips!!
So from all that, we want a sprinter who leads, trained by Karl Burke, ridden by Ben Curtis, wearing a tongue tie for the first time and in stall 8!!
Trainers
Karl Burke and Mick Easterby are top on the P/L to BSP at the track and both operate with a higher than 10% strike rate. Backing Burke horses blind you would be up £200 to £1 level stakes with his 250 runners. Easterby rates at £174 from 225 runners.
If you want to back trainers with good win % you need to be looking at raiders from Charlie Appleby, Roger Charlton and the three big guns of Stoute, Gosden and Haggas. All Five of these have a win strike rate of over 35%!! and all have positive returns to BSP.
Interestingly Mick Appleby has the second worst loss to BSP of trainers at the course with the Fell yard being the only one with a worse return. These two have 8% strike rates and losses of -£74 and -£96 to £1 level stakes for the pair. Also in the negative column are Jardine, O'Meara, J Quinn and Tinkler.
Also interestingly Micky Hammond has only had one winner from 54 runners at the track!
Jockeys
Shane Gray tops the returns to BSP at Newcastle with £290 to £1 level stakes. He only has a strike rate of 6% and this shows that he has won on big outsiders. Less surprisingly Ben Curtis is high in the list, alongside two jockeys I have down as All Weather specialists in Phil Dennis and Callum Rodriguez. Curtis is £203 profit to £1 level stakes and has a 17% strike rate.
The jockeys with highest strike rates are those that are associated with bigger establishments with Crowley topping the list on 39% from Doyle & Havlin. Interestingly Jamie Spencer does well at Newcastle in terms of winners with 24% strike rate. Perhaps indicating that the course is suitable for his style of riding.
Surprisingly the biggest losses to level stakes are those jockeys that are northern based, showing that riding masses of runners means that they don't look a profitable angle. Top of the list is Graham Lee, from Paul Mulrennan and James Sullivan. All three have poor strike rates of under 8% too.
Draw
In all races over the mile or shorter the stall that has the best profit to level stakes is stall 8. Amazingly this stall is up £588.26 to level £1 stake. Then a ROI of 69% too!! It also has a strike rate of 11% which leads the way.
Interestingly the worst stall for ROI is stall 13 with -31% followed by stall 9 with -28%. Perhaps this shows that stalls aren't necessarily a good thing to be backing by!
Headgear and Operations
Of all of the different factors we have two that stand out massively at Newcastle. Tongue Tied first time is 10 winners from 88 runners, with a profit of 149 for £1 level stakes and a ROI of 170%. Similarly hood first time is 10 from 113 with a profit of £116.79 and a ROI of 103%.
Tongue tie generally is also a strong positive with 55 winners from 417 runners and a profit of £254 to level £1 stake with ROI of 61%. Unsurprisingly hood and tongue tie is also a positive.
Surprisingly then hooded runners are a major negative on their own with a loss of £200 to level stake.
Horses with cheekpieces on is the worst of all on loss to level stakes. A loss of £481.22 to level stakes.
Pace
This surprises me, 12% of horses that lead at Newcastle from the start win their races, and return a profit of £228 to level stakes and a ROI of 14%.
So when you look at the distances of races that those who led have won it makes interesting reading and again surprising to me. Five and Six furlong races are those that come out with big profits to level stakes and big ROI too. In face other than those two distances, the mile is the only other that has a positive return.
Perhaps we punters overbet those held up horses at Newcastle, making betting against the trend an interesting angle over sprint trips!!
So from all that, we want a sprinter who leads, trained by Karl Burke, ridden by Ben Curtis, wearing a tongue tie for the first time and in stall 8!!
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So, as you say, from all that, we want a sprinter who leads, trained by Karl Burke, ridden by Ben Curtis, wearing a tongue tie for the first time and in stall 8!!
Maybe leave out if the trainers with high strike rates have a runner in the race. Seems strange that stall 8 gives a good return but 9 is a negative return. Presumably the number of runners is relevant when looking at draw statistics and maybe the draw is less relevant if the horse leads from the front - fastest away gets the position it wants?
Maybe leave out if the trainers with high strike rates have a runner in the race. Seems strange that stall 8 gives a good return but 9 is a negative return. Presumably the number of runners is relevant when looking at draw statistics and maybe the draw is less relevant if the horse leads from the front - fastest away gets the position it wants?
I don't understand the draw statistic result to be honest, but it does make sense that on the straight track they normally come down high to middle, and that is where stall 8 is on the straight course. Interestingly with fields capped to 14 runners that it seems to suggest that you don't want to be stuck on the rail and you don't want to be down the low side and out on that wing.
Are the stats for sprinters winning from the front dominated by a few horses who are often fast away and win. It would be interesting to know if any such horses win/lose when they aren't first away and also how often they win when they are first away. Clearly looking for in race betting (ie after 50 or so yards)
So if we ignore front runners drawn on the rail or wide outside in sprint races would that affect the ROI significantlyl?
Horse Runs Winners
Casterbridge 5 3
Another Angel 6 3
Cuppacoco 3 2
Lord Of The Glen 2 2
Dandy's Beano 2 2
Armed Response 2 2
Poet's Society 2 2
Slingsby 2 2
Secretinthepark 2 2
Gowanbuster 9 2
Rockley Point 4 2
Brushwork 2 2
That is the list of multiple winners at Newcastle over sprints from the front.