The Systems Thread

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A quiz on the use of hood in bumpers -

Name the four trainers in the UK who have had more than one bumper winner with horses wearing hoods
 
rudebwoy said:
What about horses running fresh , certain stables seem to strike after a lay off , while others operate differently, twister often would score first run after a lay off , and its noticeable to me fergal obrien does the same , a method learned while at twisters ?
there are bound to be anomalies , but a few years back when FoB was truly unheard of , i used to back his runners at perth , blind , big prices and often succesful,, .......obviously that cat is out the bag
Click to expand...

Since 2015 - >365 days since last run

Willie Mullins - 30 winners - 26% Strike Rate - +34 BSP
Dan Skelton - 16 - 20% - +8 BSP
Paul Nicholls - 10 - 15% - -5 BSP
Fergal - 7 - 18% - +48 BSP
NTD - 6 - 15% - +35 BSP

The one that stands out here is

Rebecca Curtis - 5 - 33% - +63 BSP
 
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You do realise that you are trashing almost my entire lifes work here.
I have always stated to anyone who will listen that if you want to win a bumper GOLD WELL is your man. More importantly than sires though it is the dams side I find more informative. I particularly like dams that have already produced bumper winners and even more so if the dams won a bumper themselves. Takes a bit of research that.
As far as trainers are concerned the track is a huge pointer. Most trainers have a favourite track to take their better bumper horses to. Crazy but I think from memory that Henderson has his best record in bumpers at Southwell.
 
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stick said:
You do realise that you are trashing almost my entire lifes work here.
I have always stated to anyone who will listen that if you want to win a bumper GOLD WELL is your man. More importantly than sires though it is the dams side I find more informative. I particularly like dams that have already produced bumper winners and even more so if the dams won a bumper themselves. Takes a bit of research that.
As far as trainers are concerned the track is a huge pointer. Most trainers have a favourite track to take their better bumper horses to. Crazy but I think from memory that Henderson has his best record in bumpers at Southwell.
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50% strike rate with 8 winners at Southwell (since 2014) but only a profit of +5pts on BSP. Shows how short in the market Henderson runners are!

Market Rasen is a better course for him in terms of profit and return on investment.
 
Gold Well is a remarkable sire (ROI for BSP)

Bumpers - 15% strike rate - ROI 43%
Chase - 13% - ROI -2.6%
Hurdle - 13% - ROI -9.55%

For comparison Jeremy is

Bumpers - 15% - ROI 54%
Hurdle - 10% - ROI -21%
Chase - 12% - ROI 60%

And Yeats is also rather interesting

Bumper - 12% - ROI -13%
Hurdle - 12% - ROI 25%
Chase - 17% - ROI 30%

It does show that certain sires are better influences for different types of races, especially in terms of market support and profitability.
 
NassauBoard said:
Gold Well is a remarkable sire (ROI for BSP)

Bumpers - 15% strike rate - ROI 43%
Chase - 13% - ROI -2.6%
Hurdle - 13% - ROI -9.55%

For comparison Jeremy is

Bumpers - 15% - ROI 54%
Hurdle - 10% - ROI -21%
Chase - 12% - ROI 60%

And Yeats is also rather interesting

Bumper - 12% - ROI -13%
Hurdle - 12% - ROI 25%
Chase - 17% - ROI 30%

It does show that certain sires are better influences for different types of races, especially in terms of market support and profitability.
Click to expand...

also , going will make a difference , some more than others , Jeremy iirc, soft ground especially ....
 
rudebwoy said:
also , going will make a difference , some more than others , Jeremy iirc, soft ground especially ....
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Jeremy by going description (official) (ROI at BSP - profitable in bold)

Going - win percentage - ROI

Good Soft 13% - 29.03
Heavy - 11% - -13.5
Soft - 10% - 14
Firm - 10% - -35
Good - 9% - -9
Good to firm - 9% - -11
 
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However if you do it on what Proform class as Actual going you get positives for

Good Soft
Heavy
Soft

ROI on Good Soft is impressive 46% in that for ROI at BSP
 
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rudebwoy said:
what about Mayson , isn’t his progeny particularly effective on soft and southwell ?
Click to expand...


He is an interesting one. On official going descriptions you get the best ROI for him on Good and then Good to Soft going.

It is hard to break down the numbers on the all weather as they are grouped together so an additional search shows that despite having a -4% ROI on "Standard" he actually has a +27% ROI at Southwell.
 
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stick said:
You do realise that you are trashing almost my entire lifes work here.
I have always stated to anyone who will listen that if you want to win a bumper GOLD WELL is your man. More importantly than sires though it is the dams side I find more informative. I particularly like dams that have already produced bumper winners and even more so if the dams won a bumper themselves. Takes a bit of research that.
As far as trainers are concerned the track is a huge pointer. Most trainers have a favourite track to take their better bumper horses to. Crazy but I think from memory that Henderson has his best record in bumpers at Southwell.
Click to expand...

In terms of Dams, just found something I think is fascinating. Old Vic mares are ROI 47% profit and what is most interest is that the winners aren't skewed by too many big priced winners. Similarly Turgeon is ROI 38%.
 
rudebwoy said:
What about horses running fresh , certain stables seem to strike after a lay off , while others operate differently, twister often would score first run after a lay off , and its noticeable to me fergal obrien does the same , a method learned while at twisters ?
there are bound to be anomalies , but a few years back when FoB was truly unheard of , i used to back his runners at perth , blind , big prices and often succesful,, .......obviously that cat is out the bag
Click to expand...


Interestingly the only profitable system for this is horses who have run within the last seven days in jumps racing, which returns a ROI of 6% and has lots of runners so a profit of 1424 (2015-20) if backed blind at BSP
 
A real gold mine of information

Can you do some analysis that might produce a list of potential Derby winners
eg what is the significance of the sire and dam sire, is there anything useful that can be deduced from their 2yo form (number of races, class of races, tracks run on, distances, time figures, date of first run etc)

I appreciate that studying reports/videos of the races in which they ran will be needed to get some idea of physical and mental development will be required once we have a list to work from

Of course another factor, that will be new to us is to what extent has the Coronavirus affected training at various yards
 
Ron said:
A real gold mine of information

Can you do some analysis that might produce a list of potential Derby winners
eg what is the significance of the sire and dam sire, is there anything useful that can be deduced from their 2yo form (number of races, class of races, tracks run on, distances, time figures, date of first run etc)

I appreciate that studying reports/videos of the races in which they ran will be needed to get some idea of physical and mental development will be required once we have a list to work from

Of course another factor, that will be new to us is to what extent has the Coronavirus affected training at various yards
Click to expand...


Ok,

lets start with the sires. This is all since and including 2010

Sire - number of runners - winners

Galileo 35 3
Montjeu 9 2
Cape Cross 3 1
Sea The Stars 5 1
Pour Moi 1 1
New Approach 6 1
Kings Best 2 1

Damsire

Kingmambo 10 2
Sadlers Wells 6 1
Darshaan 5 1
Cape Cross 4 2
Kendor 3 1
Dubai Destination 1 1
Exceed and Excel 1 1
Xaar 1 1
 
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