Tam - there is some debate about why ex-flat horses have hit a brick wall in this race in recent years, some are saying that the good to soft ground is killing flat horses speed, either way I can't be having an ex flat horse for this given it's 6 years since the last one was placed. I haven't done extensive stats on the flat performers but last years renewal attracted 15 runners, 6 were horses who started their careers on the flat but the first 4 places were filled by NH bred horses, and I seem to remember Magens Star was very close to be 100 rated on the level so it's not like the race is attracting poor flat horses only....
Griz - Your spot on with those stats. I think the lack of a recent run for Steps Of Freedom even further hampers him. I think flat horses are always tempting to back in the race given their usual high flat rating ( normally at least 90+), but I will always plump for a NH bred horse that has run in bumpers previously for this race. Personal preference I guess. I think if people want to back former flat horses in a hurdles race then the look at the Triumph! Watch Steps of Freedom hose up now....Pearl Swan second, Galileo's Choice third. Cheers then!
Namned - plenty of years of getting it wrong I promise you ! I do find the Weatherbys Guide useful but it is just that, a guide, trends are broken occasionally (Master Minded winning the Champion Chase at 5), some trends I disregard such as weight because the 'new' festival is only just taking shape, races that have only been around for 3/4 years have no solid trends themselves and the impact of their presence on other races is probably unknown. Couple the changes made to claims and of course the Martin Pipe hurdle has been extended to horses rated up to 145, there will always be exceptions. I think the book lands in the next couple of days and that's when the wife knows she's lost me for 3 weeks....
Despite the stats- which are good ones- there's a parallel with Nicholls' winner last year, Al Ferof, and his entry this year, Ted Spread. Al Ferof fell on hurdling debut and was then disappointing behind Backspin. He then started to get his act together and won easily twice prior to Cheltenham, but Ruby held him up at the Festival. Ruby made quite a lot of use out of Ted Spread when he lost behind Broadbackbob and then Grumeti. In his last race at Taunton, he took a keen hold at the back but Ruby didn't make his move until approaching the last. He won very easily, admittedly well weighted, but gave me the impression he was getting his act together. He'll like any cut in the ground and if he jumps as well as he did last time,his flat speed may stand him in good stead in an all-out gallop. I've had a little EW at 50/1 with Betvictor- although Cinders And Ashes is my main fancy.
Griz - I'm not a massive trends follower to be honest. I think I have certain criteria for most of the big races that I try to stick to. But flat horses for me in the Supreme is a massive no-no. My thinking is and always has been for this race: 4 or more run over hurdles this season (regardless of class of race) Previously run in bumpers For me also I'll always pick one of the following trainers horses Nicholls, Hendo, Hobbs or Mullins as I think they always have the best juveniles. Maybe a recipe for disaster but got Al Ferof last year! Who knows, everyone has they're own preference...
Interesting race to discuss but it's a bleeding minefield in trying to the winner...we've probably named 90% of the field in this thread by now but I still wouldn't be certain we've got the winner between us. I'm thinking it could be another 'Ebaziyan' year with a 40-1 winner bursting the many bubbles heading this way!
Who were you thinking this year NamNed? Colour Squadron seems to be the one that fulfils your criteria, plus Midnight Game. None of Henderson's are experienced enough and doesn't appear that Nicholls/Mullins have anything obvious apart from the aforementioned Midnight Game.
Zen - Yep both of those are 2 of 3 I have picked out, I really like Colour Squadron. Think the stiff test will really suit him, and have snapped a little bit of the Betfair price about him. Midnight Game is one I really like too. Only little niggle about him is the ground he's been racing on over there has never been better than soft. He travels really well though and hopefully he'll be able to quicken up the hill. I'm siding with Colour Squadron at the moment though. Your sweet on Simonsig aren't you? He's the other one on my list, but not sure if he'll go, infact to me looks less and less likely now...
I do like Simonsig but thought he falls short on your "4 runs or more over hurdle" requirement. I think he's exciting but, like you, get the feeling that the tide is now turning back to the Neptune. Impossible to say with any certainty though. Edit: Latest entry stage and the big names still remain as expected. "The Festival gets underway with the £100,000 William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle which has 61 entries going forward. Top-rated on weight-adjusted ratings with Timeform on 169p is the Nicky Henderson-trained Simonsig, who recently sauntered to a facile victory at Kelso on February 15, followed by his stablemate Darlan on 165 with Sous Les Cieux, trained by Willie Mullins on 160. Simonsig is rated 1lb below the Philip Hobbs-trained Fingal Bay (170p) with Timeform in the £100,000 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, which takes place over two miles and five furlongs on Ladies Day and has 77 remaining entries." I thought it most interesting that Timeform have Simonsig well clear at the head of the Supreme ratings, and with a 'p', and just the 1lb behind Fingal Bay in the Neptune. I wasn't expecting such a gap by any means. Timeform clearly think Henderson has a stranglehold on the Supreme with Darlan next best, and the Sous Les Cieux who has been disappointing since winning the Royal Bond. Then again, I'm not sure too much can be read into these ratings because Timeform still have Al Ferof ahead of Sprinter Sacre by 1lb which I can't agree with at all.
Ah yes he is only having had 3, I have had Darlan on my list for sometime but can't help thinking he would be brushed aside by Simonsig should the latter go for the race! Like Darlan though, and he pleased my at Newbury before falling. I'll probably back all 3 (assuming Simon goes for the Neptune). But if he does go for the Supreme, move aside Darlan methinks!
Sorry Toppy but Captain Conan is out of the Supreme. Probably not unexpected. The two other notables are All The Aces and Ranjaan.
The Scratchings are through, the field remains as follows: WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICESâ HURDLE Class 1, Grade 1, Total Prize Fund £100,000, 1.30pm Tuesday, March 13, 2012, Old Course, two miles and half a furlong, for novice four-year-olds and upwards. Weights 5-y-o 10st 13lb, 5-y-o and upwards 11st 7lb, fillies and mares allowance 7lb. Entries closed January 31, 2012, entries released, February 2 (91 entries), scratchings deadline February 21 (61 remain). Six-day confirmation stage, March 7, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 12. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including Monday, February 20. May not include some overseas form. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1 AGENT ARCHIE (USA) 5 David Gorton Donald McCain 13-21 ALLURE OF ILLUSION (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 5 ALWAARY (USA) 6 Charles Noell Rebecca Curtis 3142-2 AVOCA PROMISE (IRE) 7 Bailey-Carvill Equine Charles Egerton 1134-12 BABY SHINE (IRE) 6 P A Philipps, T S Redman & Mrs L Redman Lucy Wadham 1111 BALDER SUCCES (FR) 4 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King BRICK RED 5 Julian Taylor & Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 4-31115 CASH AND GO (IRE) 5 David Monaghan/K S Jones Edward OâGrady IRE CASHELGAR (IRE) 6 Future Racing (Notts) Limited Richard Guest 2060 CATCH TAMMY (IRE) 6 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 50-2111 CINDERS AND ASHES 5 Dermot Hanafin & Phil Cunningham Donald McCain 212-31 CLOSE HOUSE 5 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe 1212F COLOUR SQUADRON (IRE) 6 Peter Bonner Philip Hobbs 1-111F DARLAN 5 J P McManus Nicky Henderson 32 DIAMOND LIFE 6 Malcolm Denmark Warren Greatrex 1 DILDAR (IRE) 4 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls 13 DISTANT MEMORIES (IRE) 6 Fitri Hay Tom Taaffe IRE 11 DIVAPOUR (FR) 5 Mathieu Offenstadt Guy Cherel FR 0-12222 DYLAN ROSS (IRE) 6 No Rush Man Syndicate Noel Meade IRE 16-3320 ERICHT (IRE) 6 Bridget Hanbury Nicky Henderson 210-21 FELIX YONGER (IRE) 6 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 121 GALILEO'S CHOICE (IRE) 6 Lambe/Smurfit/Keough/Newtown Anna Dermot Weld IRE 113//-3 GIORDANO BRUNO (IRE) 8 Tony Bloom Philip Hobbs 1-11134 HAZY TOM (IRE) 6 Alan Halsall Charlie Longsdon 1123 HINTERLAND (FR) 4 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Paul Nicholls 420210 HIS EXCELLENCY (IRE) 4 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 541153 IL FENOMENO (ITY) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE 1210 JIMBILL (IRE) 6 M E Moore & B Ead Tim Vaughan 12214 JOXER (IRE) 5 Bill Harney Bill Harney IRE 214 JUDICIARY (IRE) 5 Diamond Racing Ltd Tim Vaughan 1(1)1-22 KEYS (IRE) 5 Seasons Holidays Nicky Henderson 10-1316 KNIGHT PASS (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark Warren Greatrex 111364 LAGANBANK (IRE) 6 Rose Boyd/Marie Armstrong Willie Mullins IRE F114 LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) 6 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE 113 MAKE YOUR MARK (IRE) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 2411 MIDNIGHT GAME 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 220-111 MOLOTOF (FR) 5 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson 111 MONKSLAND (IRE) 5 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE 12-3211 MONTBAZON (FR) 5 David Sewell Alan King 2 MONTE CAVALLO (SAF) 7 D Morrison Rebecca Curtis 64 NORTH CAPE (USA) 6 Andrew McIver Alastair Lidderdale 211203 ONE TERM (IRE) 5 L Reid, W A Thomas & G Costelloe Rebecca Curtis 12 PEARL SWAN (FR) 4 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 12144 PROSPECT WELLS (FR) 7 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls 004150 ROCKY WEDNESDAY (IRE) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 12 SHADOW CATCHER 4 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE 11P52P SHADOW EILE (IRE) 7 S Reilly Dot Love IRE 512 SIMENON (IRE) 5 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE 1121 SIMONSIG 6 Ronnie Bartlett Nicky Henderson 3/2-1132 SOUS LES CIEUX (FR) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE S1-0111 STEPS TO FREEDOM (IRE) 6 Mrs Sean Hussey Jessica Harrington IRE 5441U6 SZABO'S DESTINY 4 M Wasylocha Gordon Elliott IRE 2/-F5 TANERKO EMERY (FR) 6 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd Tim Vaughan 421 TED SPREAD 5 False Nose 'n Glasses Partnership Paul Nicholls (4)-11113 TERMINAL (FR) 5 Favourites Racing Willie Mullins IRE 210/-11(1) TETLAMI (IRE) 6 Susan Roy Nicky Henderson 231121 TRIFOLIUM (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Charles Byrnes IRE VIA COL VENTO 6 Venetia Williams Venetia Williams 212 VULCANITE (IRE) 5 Pearl Bloodstock Ltd Charlie Longsdon 004-2 WALTER DE LA MARE (IRE) 5 Philip Caffrey John Murphy IRE 054 ZERASHAN (IRE) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE 61 entries remain after February 21 scratchings deadline THE FOLLOWING 30 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: ALL THE ACES (IRE), BALLYCLOUGH (IRE), BLISSFUL MOMENT (USA), CAOLANEOIN (IRE), CAPTAIN CONAN (FR), CAPTAIN SUNSHINE, COTILLION, CRY OF FREEDOM (USA), DOUBLE ROSS (IRE), ENGAI (GER), FAIRY RATH (IRE), FORMIDABLEOPPONENT (IRE), FOURTH ESTATE (IRE), INGLEBY SPIRIT, IT'S A GIMME (IRE), KINGS DESTINY, MAGNIFIQUE ETOILE, MONO MAN (IRE), MORNING ROYALTY (IRE), OHIO GOLD (IRE), OSCAR NOMINEE (IRE), OUR JOE MAC (IRE), PERSIAN SNOW (IRE), RANJAAN (FR), SEVENTH SKY (GER), SIMPLY NED (IRE), SPORTSMASTER (IRE), THE WAY WE WERE (IRE), TIGER REIGNS, WATERUNDER (IRE)
1123 HINTERLAND (FR) 4 Potensis Limited & Chris Giles Paul Nicholls 12 PEARL SWAN (FR) 4 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 1 DILDAR (IRE) 4 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls Interesting. Given Nicholls large triumph entry, does anyone think/know if any of this lot will head towards the Supreme instead? I quite like Simonsig for the supreme, but if he doesn't go then I'd have to fancy Pearl Swan if he ran. Can't think he will though - I'd have expected Nichols to be pitching Pearl Swan, Ranjaan and Dildar at the triumph at the least?
As you suggest Danish, I think Hinterland is the most likely one to be diverted. Nicholls has stated that Pearl Swan will go straight to the Triumph, as will Ranjaan. Dildar will go to the Triumph depending on how he goes in the Adonis. That leaves Dodging Bullets, also running in the Adonis, and Hinterland. Hinterland has the most experience, and has run in open handicap company already. It wouldn't surprise me to see him run one in the Supreme, and Hinterland looks the obvious candidate to me.
Captain Conan no surprises Zen, fair play for testing his ability in Irerland before making a decision though, I've no qualms with that. Mono Man I'm a little disappointed with but I think he'll run very well in the Neptune, lovely horse. Pleased to see Make Your Mark still hanging in the entries for now, think he'd suited hands down to this race, though holds entries in Neptune and Albert Bartlett, too.
I'm sure I remember reading Nicholls has one going straight to the Triumph as well - a french import. Can't remember the name though. Pain in the arse that is, debut race at the festival. Punters nightmare.
If Darlan has recovered from his fall and AP picks him i can see him running extremely well and also getting supported, reminds me of Get Me Out of Here who almost won this.
