He was very, very impressive at the weekend Grizzly, the only "if" for me at the moment is that he is entered in the Supreme and the Triumph and I'm not sure King has given any strong indication of which race he is likely to contest. The yard has Montbazon amongst the leading fancies for the Supreme, and Grumeti for the Triumph so at the moment it's difficult to see which race he might end up in.
The original plan with Balder Success was to miss Cheltenham altogether and go to Aintree instead. I suspect that subsequent events will have persuaded connections to think otherwise. As Oddy says, he's still in both the Supreme and the Triumph so which race he heads for is unknown. I also thought it interesting that Alan King still seemed pretty sure that Grumeti was the best of his juveniles, and indeed better than his past Triumph winners.
Just learnt (through no reults on the Sporting Life search function) that the correct spelling is Balder Succes (only 1 s at the end of Succes) It's been a quiet morning so far ............................ Hope King is right with Grumeti - I took a nice slice of 16s for him to win the Trial at Cheltenham the other week and follow up in the Triumph. Thought I'd done my dough when Pearl Swan beat him so the stewards did me a massive favour
One of those annoying spellings like Wishfull Thinking, rather than Wishful Thinking as you would expect.
I usually struggle every year with this race. We've had (since I've been following racing properly) Dunguib and Cue Card, two massive AP favourites. This year no such "hotpot" in the field, but it does look very competitive. I like Colour Squadron. I can forgive his run behind Captain Conan (ran smelly next time out), as he had to make the pace instead of tracking it, and looked to be coming with a very strong challenge at Newbury LTO. Has already had Montbazon behind him before Newbury and would have done again if not crumbling. Decent pace guaranteed at Chelts very likely to suit and looks to be a very good bet. 19/1 Betfair....
Looked long and hard at Balder Success myself Grizz after Saturdays impressive performance. I do think one or two 4 Y 0s will run and I think, with an air of quiet confidence, that you will see Pearl Swan run in it for Paul Nicholls, simply because a fast pace in a Supreme (and the lack of 5 & 6 Y O Nicholls challengers this season) will see him come with a late run and suits his style. I like Balder Success but I'd like to hear a bit more on his plans from Alan King before getting involved. As it stands, I need a Supreme horse as most of my A-P bets look like non-runners!
I think stable mate Montbazon looks like as very strong contender, won very well on friday againtst some of his competition come this race!
That's interest TC - I assumed Pearl Swan was nailed on to head for the Triumph. The 8lb claim for 4yo has to be of interest but King is known for late decisions, I remember sitting on a voucher for Bensalem in the 3m handicap (that he won) but hearing from Choc the night before that the World hurdle was a serious consideration over the weekend....
Just something I note in the markets on Betfair. He is very weak for the Triumph, out to 16.5/1 and on the back of a superb run at Cheltenham, that is just not right and I think very informative. It might also say a lot about Nicholls other 2- DILDAR and DODGING BULLETS (and Ranjaan?)- perhaps they are all very good. Pearl Swan available at 40s for Supreme, which sounds big but he touched 33s over the weekend and if he was headed to the Triumph he wouldnt even be as short as that on the exchanges. It tells me that the Supreme is being considered. I might be way off, though.
Toppy you keep looking for excuses not to back Tetlami but a juicy 16/1 is still available ................................ you know you want to
Trifolium is the one I like the look of the most at the moment and 14s represents a very fair price to me
Oddy it does tempt me. I'm still waiting on a bit more information around the Supreme realy, something to add a bit more clarity. I dont think Tetlami is a talking horse or onw that people have noticed, so I think he'll remain double figures up until the final week, so I have time to weigh up my plan of action. Very likeable horse though and one of the few we know was intended as a Supreme runner with no ties to the Neptune. Just had to reconsider based on Vulcanites performance since Tetlami beat him. I think Tetlami might be the one I back on the day as a saver. I wanted to pick your brains on Simenon, Oddy, from Willie Mullins' yard. I remember you backed him the same as I did when he got a bit of a stuffing by Trifolium, but I have re-watched that race recently and I think Simenons run was promising. I know its hard to get away from a comprehensive 9 length defeat, but I think Trifolium totally got the run of the race and a mistake from Simenon when making headway really checked his momentum turning in. I did like how he went past horses though and responded to urgings from Ruby. I'm not sure about the likelihood of him running, but I wonder if he'd be a Mullins outsider? He ran on heavy ground that day and I'm convinced he would be better the quicker it got, especially being a UK-based flat horse in the past. I just have a gut feeling he could close the gap to Trifolium quite markedly if he had the chance to run. I totally understand why people might tell me I'm talking **** there though.
I should add it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Allure of Illusion ran a massive race in this. Good bumper form and I thought he put up a very good display on debut behind Joxer when he got badly hampered by a faller. Yes his last run where he dead heated looks like he would have no chance but I think there is a definite possibility he just didn't stay the 2m4f and if that is the case he would surely have won the race much more impressively over a shorter trip. Willie Mullins banged in Ebaziyan at 40s back in 2007 which is an obvious bonus and I think the 33s on offer looks pretty huge if it was a case of not staying LTO.
Reading on Twitter that Simonsig has had a breathing operation at some stage this season, I assume after his Sandown run. The source is on a panel with Nicky Henderson tomorrow so will report back when he pops the question.
Toppy I guess we have to remember these are still novices and that defeat of Simenon was, I believe, due to the winner having more experience (it was Trifolium's 6th hurdle race, but only the 3rd for Simenon). Simenon is clearly still learning his trade and therein lies my reservation with alot of these "unexposed" horses in the Supreme - I really think you need a battle-hardened sort to take this. Al Ferof was having his fifth race over hurdles when winning the race, Menorah also his 5th, Go Native his 6th. Captain Cee Bee and Ezabiyan were exceptions, having had only 2 runs over hurdles prior to the Supreme, although both had contested numerous flat races prior to that. Noland won on his 5th hurdle start, as did Arcalis, while Brave Inca took the race on his 4th start. Regarding Tetlami, I think that his price could well shorten significantly if Simonsig goes for the Neptune and Tetlami becomes Barry Geraghty's mount in the race
Oddy - the trends have changed for this race in recent years. I accept what you're saying about battle-hardened horses being prefered but throughout the history of the race the key is still unexposed types. Ex flat horses used to have a real say in this race yet the last one to even be placed was Straw Bear (2006). Positive stats are 5 and 6 year olds and for horses who began their UK career in bumpers (which adds weight to the expeirence/battle hardened theory). Last time out winners I think are 13 from 15. The real stat for me that's emerged is that the last 11 winners had all won in a field of 16 or more runners - this confirms that horses are able to work in a big field, go past horses, jockey for room etc and all the skills needed for a fast and furious 20+ runner affair. I think it's 17 from 19 for horses who have run in the last 45 days which is key as well proving that for this race in particular you don't want yours sitting in a box throughout February. Paul Jones guide is out this week and if anyone knows a trend he does, bound to be something key that I've missed.....
Grizzly, interesting stats. Given also that the race is likely to be won by a six or five year old, two horses that fit the bill are Steps To Freedom and Trifolium( although the former has not run yet this year- presumably he will).
Toppy, All The Aces runs in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon for Henderson and not Mono Man. His two remaining entries are both on Friday, one at Sandown over 2m and one at Warwick over 2m3f. Not sure where he goes yet but hopefully he will take up one engagement on Friday.
