Toon: You're right. You know, I did not even realise that the thread title was some other race! (Erm, I think ascends rather than descends?).
Oddy, following the Betfair Supreme market closely. They look like theyre laying the balls of Tetlami. God knows why, but he just doesnt shorten. Trifolium another one who doesnt get much sustained support. I like him quite a bit having rewatched his race the other day. Would still like Simenon to run in this despite the savage beating!
Trifolium was the horse I liked the most Toppy but the alarming drift the other day has perplexed me a bit (although thats tightened right up again). I'm going to wait until the day now before backing him he seems a bit forgotten in the grand scheme of things and I don't think his price will be too different on the day as it is now.
i mentioned a week or so ago the yard was sweet on steps to freedom-my friend was speaking to the owner and they reckon it's a 'good thing'-he told me to back citizenship a few weeks back at leps and that came in so i have no reason to doubt him-i reckon there will be serious money coming in for this over the next few days so i will be on it e/w whilst the price lasts [/B]i mentioned a week or so ago the yard was sweet on steps to freedom-my friend was speaking to the owner and they reckon it's a 'good thing'-he told me to back citizenship a few weeks back at leps and that came in so i have no reason to doubt him-i reckon there will be serious money coming in for this over the next few days so i will be on it e/w whilst the price lasts
I must admit I'm surprised Tetlami's price has held, especially after Simonsig was withdrawn - it now seems clear that Geraghty will ride Tetlami whilst McCoy will ride darlan. TBH I'm finding this market wholly confusing - how on earth Darlan is 5/1 fav is absolutely beyond me, he has looked like a bridle horse and hasn't put in a 130+ performance yet. Second favourite Steps To Freedom hasn't run since the beginning of November and his form is also now questionable given Prospect Wells and Ericht's subsequent runs. Galileo's Choice got beat in the Royal Bond and then won a very soft looking novic hurdle last time out. I actually think 4 of the next 5 in the betting have much better credentials - Cinders and Ashes, Montbazon, Tetlami and Trifolium all look very solid propositions to me.
As my regular readers are aware I've been banging Montbazon's drum in this for the past year or so (look to the left and you can see his picture). But in today's 'Weekender' Alan King is hardly ebullient in his assessment of Montbazon saying he is ‘not sure he is the finished article yet’, that ‘he will improve again over the summer’ and ‘I feel that there may be one or two too good’. Hardly a speech which inspires Churchillian confidence. Meanwhile, if Darlan or Colour Squadron are to win this then they will have to overcome a major, and I do mean a major, negative trend. Since 1996 53, I say 53, horses have run in a hurdle race at the Festival having fallen on there previous start and all of them got beat at the Festival!
Barney - out of interest, how many of the fallen horses were leading contenders? I only ask as I have backed Colour Squadron, and in my eyes is a leading contender.
Nam, sorry I’ve no idea. Stat comes courtesy of today’s ‘Weekender’. They do claim though that because hurdle falls are usually harder than those which occur in chases they’re far more likely to dent a horse’s confidence. Especially when they then go onto contest a high-class, big field race next time out.
I can see that, and I'm not going to lie it does worry me a bit. It's going to a big field too.... Bit of schooling should sort him out, I'd be more worried if I was on Darlan. Doesn't look much like the winner to me anyway.
I'm quite confident that Darlan is a bridle horse who will find nothing when push comes to shove. Nam - you not worried about the ground for Colour Squadron - likely to be Good-soft with the accent on good? He has looked to me like a horse who likes a bit of cut
Not really Oddy to be honest. I think the ground will be spot on for him, very marginally softer but nothing to worry about. The extra stiff test for him will be perfect too methinks. Hurdles well, travels well and I'll take the chance on him having recovered after his fall and confidence being restored.... Darlan does not worry me in the slightest. Be interested to see if BG takes the ride on Tetlami, I assume he will?
Yeah, AP will be on Darlan as he is owned by JP. I'm very sweet on Tetlami, I think he could actually come out and destroy this field. Also a strong traveller and has real acceleration which I think can take him away from them up the hill. Can't wait for Tuesday
Me too mate. I haven't looked too much into Tetlami really because, as I said before, I personally would have liked him to have had one or two more runs over hurdles, before backing him. But, NH/BG combo is hard to ignore and could be an e/w play on the day for me. Who is Nichollsy running then? Prospect Wells and Hinterland? Surely the latter has no chance, but PW could run well and is probably overpriced...
Me too mate. I haven't looked too much into Tetlami really because, as I said before, I personally would have liked him to have had one or two more runs over hurdles, before backing him. But, NH/BG combo is hard to ignore and could be an e/w play on the day for me. Who is Nichollsy running then? Prospect Wells and Hinterland? Surely the latter has no chance, but PW could run well and is probably overpriced...
I had a crafty tenner e/w on Prospect Wells at 25/1 after the Tolworth as I thought that wasn't his running at all. Then came the wind op and with spring ground and him going there fresh he could run a really big race. Unfortunately my tenner e/w wasn't that crafty because you can still get 25s today I think PW will probably be Nicholls only runner
The latter, in particular, is hugely overpriced at 40/1 NRNB. I have had a good look at the race and fancy him if he takes his chance. http://cuhrs.blogspot.com/2012/03/supreme-bet.html
He might do but good to take advantage of the NRNB. I get the feeling that Nicholls might be reconsidering. I hope so anyway.
Zen - after dismissing him out of hand before that write gives him an excellent chance!! The only reason I had dismissed him is because of that handicap run, and wasn't aware that magic Ruby said he'd overdone the hold-up. He did run on well that day too. Surely Ruby would pick PW though wouldn't he of the two? Not sure anymore lol.....
