Darlan's fall puts a massive question mark over his chances. I said Steps to Freedom would win last summer so will stick to that. Plenty in with chances and it's a race I really don't want to get heavily involved in. The longer distance novice hurdles are much more exciting and the higher quality renewals this year.
Do you not think there are plenty of questions marks over him given his price? No recent outing which must be a negative, even if it was planned, and the form looking very shaky indeed with neither Prospect Wells (although he may have excuses) or Ericht doing anything for it subsequently. If he were nearer 16/1 then I could see him being worth the chance but there are too many question marks for me at the price.
Loads of question marks Zen. However, I think he's a monster in the making and crucially, the plan has always been to put him away following the win last time out. It's not like he's had set backs that have stopped them from running him at will. Jessie's been successful with this tactic in the past and I'm fairly happy thinking all that is about to pay dividends again. Plus we aren't looking at a great set of 2 mile novices. I'd be interested in a price about Ireland winning the race.
Interesting that Robbie Power at a recent Preview Evening in Ireland said that he's a better horse than Oscars Well was this time last year. I can see the argument for him but think it's a little too easy to build one against him at the price. I suppose similar could be said about the rest too. Definitely has an open look to it and it will come down to who we, as individuals, 'like' most. Quel - Steps To Freedom Zen - Simonsig (if he runs that is, if he doesn't then not a clue as yet!) Oddy - Tetlami
Galileos Choice has had serious support. 13/2 fav on Betfair. Christ. Thats the shortest price we've had for this race to date. Someone has just hoovered up the 15.5 available for Simonsig- he's now 13.5
Nothing traded at shorter than 8.2 though Toppy. Simonsig has money matched as short as 6.80 after his Kelso stroll. Seems that the wider public have as little idea as us (as a collective that is).
Wooly not too sure but I suspect his perhaps fortunate win after Colour Squadron fell wasnt viewed as the best of form, and if I'm honest he has been slightly disappointing this season.
toppy, I think he will run very strongly come the supreme but his stable mate Balders Sucess intrigues me alot!
Just to note down, currently trading at 12/1 on Betfair is Montbazon, so he's well in the frame of the top betting, so not drifting much
Wooly - I like him too. Along with Colour Squadron and Darlan. Not convinced about the Irish contingent bar maybe Midnight Game but I have ground worries about him. Out of interest what do you favour Montbazon over Colour Squadron for?
Chaps, Anyone aware of the target for Sous Les Cieux? He's entered in the Neptune and the Supreme... Also does anyone know whether Trifolium is definitely coming over for the Supreme? It's his only entry. Cheers Nam.
Sous Les Cieux has, apart from a good win in the Royal Bond, been disappointing. To me he looked a weak finisher over 2m, but then his run in the Deloitte novice hurdle suggested he might benefit from 2 and a half miles. Having reconsidered I think he lacks a change of gear to accellerate when needed over 2m, so I think he'll be one aimed at further with time. I dont fancy him for the festival up that hill. Gigginstown are always hard to read, but Trifoliums superb last two runs must be convincing them to send him over. Very experienced over hurdles now and could run well. My only concern is that Midnight Game seems to be well liked and well supported, so I'd want confirmation from some of the more experienced members of our board as to whether it is common for Gigginstown to send 2 horses for one race at Cheltenham.
Davy Russell was saying that he'd ride Midnight Game of the pair, more on reputation than form though. Would they send both across or just the one, and save the other for alternative targets? No idea to be honest. Sous Les Cieux is an interesting one because he is clearly well regarded but, for whatever reason, hasn't quite come up to scratch since the Royal Bond. Interesting to see what Mullins does with him.
Gigginstown never shy away from multiple runners in the big Irish races so I wouldn't expect them to do so at Cheltenham - if they have 2 for a race I'm sure they'll send them over.
chaps any of you simonsig backers will be happy to know that boylesports will be refunding all bets if an irish horse wins the supreme
As nrnb comes closer and closer, I think we'll see the gradual shortening of everything at the top of the market for the next few weeks. Best strategy now is probably sit tight and wait as its unlikely anything will shorten dramatically. Come race day the bookies will be selling they're own young to attract custom and the prices will probably be bigger than they are now.
