The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Sorry, just spotted that TTB was a non runner so +20.2 pts in profit

 

A Saturday night, what a better time to be studying Sunny Southwell...

12:20 - A horrible little race with many starting on the surface for the first time, some starting in handicaps for the first time and many stepping up in trip to this distance for the first time. However it is one with previous course form that I like, this filly (which apparently is a negative) by Poet's Voice ran well on her course debut, finishing a closing 3rd behind Geography Teacher and two lengths ahead of Bawtry Lady (reopposing) despite having a poor wide trip over the 6 furlongs.

She is drawn wide tomorrow but I don't think this race has much pace in it, and if she can get three wide on the bend, or better, I think she will go very close in this race. 2pt EW @ 14/1 BOG

13:25 - Lets try this again, Samovar to make amends for the unseat. Tomorrow he should get an easier time of it up front and I think at 5/1 he is a very fair price. 4pt win @ 5/1 BOG


Only those two tomorrow. 8pts staked

 

Agree the first race is anything can happen , Agent Smith has been gelded, first handicap, but the form of his previous races is chock full of winners ; some at a reasonable level , so with a stable that is pretty good at the track , I'm putting my free bet on hI'm at a decent price .....I have also done samovars stable mate Crossfire as he was in a better race last time finishing third , but in truth any of them could pop up !!

 

+12.2 pts going into tomorrow.

13:45 - So Hi Speed - US bred horse by Central Banker (Speightstown) so should relish the change of surface and has already got the form in the book to win an average renewal of this race. 2pt at 4/1 (could see this going off much shorter if ready to run after the break)

14:20 - Foolaad - This horse has the best form in the race and that run last time at Newcastle will have him primed for this. 4pt @ 2/1 BOG

16:05 Mametz Wood - This is more of a flyer, but I think we can overlook the Newcastle run and look at the form from this course, off 1lb lower than when hanging his race away on his penultimate start. At 11/1 he is value - 1pt EW BOG

 

Two losers and a non runner

+6.2

More to come later

 

1:35 Pearl Noir 16/1

1pt EW BOG

This is an unusual race for a sprint at Southwell, there isn’t the usual plethora of front runner. The one exception is Pearl Noir who raced against the pace bias last time and ran with a bit of credit.

Today he can get loose on the lead and if Currie can time it properly he might just get away.

 

2:40 Melgate Magic 13/8 2pt

Course form, looks primed for a good run and I think this horse will get to the front and be placed in the centre ground rather than on the rail.

 

Sorry to come so late to the battle - been out all day and only just reviewed the day's events at Southwell. I'd be interested in your views, Nass (and anyone else who cares enough) about whether today's results might contain a lesson or two for the future:

1) over 5f and 6f here, I sometimes think that the jockey matters more than the horse. Specifically, I thought that Hamilton certainly outrode Toby Eley in the 3.10,and I'm inclined to think the same of Hollie Doyle against Nathan Evans in the 2.40. But I know Evens always rides Melgate Magic, and you have to accept that he must know the horse well.

2) the second point of sort-of related, and it boils down to the going. As you said, MM had presentable course form, but it was on standard going. Today was showing as standard/slow which, on my timings, seems to equate to slow on all the other synthetic surfaces. It may be that the obvious explanation is the right one, and the two leaders simply went off too quickly, but I reckon that standard/slow is really quite testing and Evans didn't realise how much petrol he was using.

As a matter of no interest at all, I did email Roderick Duncan (regional clerk of ARC northern courses, including Southwell) on the second point a couple of years ago. He was reasonably polite, but clearly wasn't inclined to debate it and the conversation more or less tailed off. What he did mention - and this may be relevant to today's events and for the immediate future - was that he and most other clerks didn't fully understand the effect of very low temperatures on different mixes of fibresand - proportion of wax, depth of harrowing, how much water, so forth.

I don't want to make too much of all this - today's meeting consisted entirely of handicaps and you're going to get funny results - but the racing here since the reopening has been even less predictable than usual. No one follows this thread more devotedly than I do, but it might be time for a few weeks' just watching and pondering.

 

Evening Rainer, apologies if this goes off at a tangent or stops abruptly. I’ve got my lad sleeping on means typing left handed is a new skill of mine... who says that you stop learning about using technology as you get older?

On point one I think you are completely right, but I’d extend the analysis to all races at the course. Jockeys do play a major part and those jockeys who can ride in the US style (against the clock) must be seen to a better light.

Take the MM race, and I’ve not seen sectionals yet, but I’d presuppose that they came back to the field rather than GT putting in a fast last furlong, and that was because of poor timing from the front two in the early stages.

I don’t think it’s any coincidence that jockeys such as Luke Morris have good records at Southwell and that they ride at the course regularly.

In terms of the going, I don’t think it has that much of a difference other than adding to the stamina needs. I’d suggest that experience on the course from jockeys and horses should balance this out.

What did interest me of today is probably more temperature related in that the kickback didn’t seem as intense as it has recently. Given that a few winners today came from off the pace in strongly run races it might be that conditions when very cold are more suitable for those coming from behind.

This could be caused by the clumping of material from part freezing of the mixture or maybe is air pressure related. Throw in the depth of harrowing seems to vary a good amount when we get to mid winter temperatures (something that should be reported imho).

However, I will be quite honest in saying that my problem recently with lack of winners at the course is because I’ve tried to cut a few corners with my research and my thinking hasn’t been as rounded as it should be (plus three issues out of control- RH heartattck - Samovar unseat and head over stalls).

The joy of having a lack of time means I should have just swerved the racing rather than being halfhearted with selections, but that is something we all try and learn and improve on!! It’s easy to think that you can make it easier and that if you don’t put money on then you’ll miss easy winners.

I think a regroup is needed, but more about proper time spent rather than the conditions of the track!!

Hopefully I will get some proper time tomorrow evening/Saturday to look at Sunday’s card and the form book!

 

Well, amen to that. Can't join in for Sunday, alas - I've got a pre-season Superbowl investment on the Rams, around which I need to do some finely-tuned trading back. These calculations can get difficult after five pints of Doombar and the second bottle of merlot. Ripple of applause for the LH typing, though - did you ever see Peter Cook's one-legged Tarzan sketch ?

 

Not a vintage day on SSS, but the little 6f Cl.5 handicap at 3.25 might be worth a look. You either take the view that Marble Bar has suddenly had a full scale engine replacement and is worth the 12 lb. hike it gets for its last run, or you think that the race probably fell apart and the rest weren't that bothered once he'd gone.

I'm in the second camp, which makes Crosse Fire a reasonably attractive proposition at around 4-1 (5.1 on Betfair as I post). This thing's not getting any younger, but he runs pretty consistently to his 60-ish mark and seems to do practically all his winning in March. (Spoiler alert: satirical north-country accent joke follows): t'lad T.Ladd rides the sprint-trips here as well as any 5-lb claimer I've watched recently. I expect him to come late, and don't see the 8/8 draw as a problem. By no means a wheelbarrow job, but worth a modest interest - particularly since after the Brexit vote(s) supermarket shelves will be empty, the streets will run with blood, and money will have no value. Have a nice day.

 

Never doubted it, Oddy; your linguistic antennae are infallible.

 

The 2.40 at the Venue of Legends today is an intriguing little race. Unfortunately, I don't have time to give it the lengthy analysis it deserves, so I'll just leave the thought that the market may have got the wrong favourite. There seems to be a general view that Betty's Hope's Beverley form is somehow 'better' than anything else on offer. Inclined to question that - the winner (Birkenhead) was heavily backed on Saturday at Ripon and didn't find much when put under pressure. On the other hand, Littledidyouknow looked very genuine once she got the hang of things over C&D last week.

She's penalised for that, of course, and BH has a good claimer aboard, so there's a total difference of 11 lb. which probably explains the betting. But Archie Watson is in blistering form (26% in the last fortnight), and I think this race might be won at the start. In which case, I'll take Luke Morris to be in the right place after 20 yards every day of the week. They go 6/4 BH and 9/4 LDYK as I post, with no apparent interest in anything else. Archie and Luke for me, but others may think differently.

 

only just seen this rainer , excellent analysis and great drift as well , amazing how many times the market gets these races wrong , , bookies must love it !!

 

So we’ve got lunchtime summer racing from Southwell. Who says racing is overloaded?

12:00 Maureb

Horse ran well over 7f on course debut and now drops to optimum trip. Poor race so doesn’t need to improve, but any return to old form and it could hack up.

 

This eejit read the race distance incorrectly and thought it was over 6! The second ran a cracker and one for later in the year.

Surprised by how much kickback we’ve seen, be interesting to see if front runners have an even bigger advantage today

 

It's often interesting when Hughie Morrison sends a well-bred maiden 3yo to Southwell after a moderate 2yo career. Spargrove (7.35) showed nothing at all last year, and actually started at 100-1 on his last two runs. But he's well related (half-brother to the decidedly smart Marmelo, who was last seen winning a Newbury Group 3) and it may be significant that he 's not (or not yet) been gelded. The race probably revolves around your view of Bonneville: is he an improving sort who might have just run into a useful one last time ? If so, at these weights, he could be a good thing. Or, as I think, is he distinctly moderate without any sort of pace at all ? It may be a pointer that the handicapper wasn't greatly impressed by his last run at Salisbury, and has only put him up a pound for it.

With Bonneville at a shade of odds on, and Spargrove around 7-2, I'll be backing the Morrison horse and hoping I've read the tea leaves correctly. The theory is that Charlie Bennett sits close to Bonneville and does him for foot in the last furlong. Probably.

 

At last - a proper horse race. The 5.10 at Southwell is a 5f handicap, full of trainers skilled in the dark arts, starring fresh-faced 5lb claimers entrusted with bringing home significant sums of money, run in October murk in rural Lincolnshire, and potentially with more plots than a Midsomer graveyard (as Barney would say if his cultural reference book had reached the 21C).

This calls for my full attention, and I'll be back early after lunch with a prediction.

 

If the money comes - Sandridge Lad.

They might just put it in the race this time.