The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

And so, yet again, the torch has to be picked up and carried by people of lesser talent, but greater resolve and stronger character.

 

Comforting, Swan, but I think that he might have run into one today. The Cox horse looks a bit of a beast to me, and I suspect that Zarzyni wouldn't have given him 6 lb however the race was run. Missing the kick didn't help, and it looked as if he got bumped early as well, but if you bet almost exclusively on 5f and 6f races - as I do - you have to live and die by the starts. Which is why I have a high regard for Luke Morris - much reviled on here for lack of elegance with the whip - who is almost never in the wrong place after 50 yards. Ditto the divine Hollie Doyle, of course.

 

The King is dead, long live the god awful Tapeta.

I think we all can agree that 4 meetings at Southwell is enough to get a feel for the new mediocre surface.

So what have I learnt? Well, apart from Rainer peaking too early (rumours have been abound for a while on that one), the key message for me is that you seem to need to be running wide from off the turn into the straight (good old times).

So having borrowed a system from Andrew Mount, I give you....

Races over 6 furlongs or further (so running the turn).
Drawn in stalls 6 to 9


87 runners
16 winners
Expected winners 9.04
A/E 1.77

PL to Betfair SP - +123.67 (£1 level stake)
ROI +142%

PL to SP - +64.88 (£1 level)
ROI +74%


However, I have adapted to take out horses running with headgear or wind surgery

47 runners
11 winners
BSP +132.72 ROI +282.39
SP +77.88 ROI +165.69

So the horses that qualify are

16:30 Merweb
16:30 Nashy
16:30 Artillery
16:30 Dew You Believe
17:00 Rainbow Jet
17:00 Onesmoothoperator
17:30 Susie Javea
18:00 Gypsy Whisper
18:00 Full Approval
19:00 Sophar Sogood
19:30 Porterinthejungle

(all without headgear angle - )

16:30 Merweb
16:30 Nashy
16:30 Artillery
16:30 Dew You Believe
17:00 Rainbow Jet
17:00 Cherokee Dance
17:00 Onesmoothoperator
17:30 Fitzrovia
17:30 Susie Javea
17:30 Ricksen
17:30 Lucayan
18:00 Eye Of The Water
18:00 Gypsy Whisper
18:00 Global Vision
18:00 Full Approval
18:30 Arpina
18:30 Estefan
18:30 Rogue Storm
18:30 Medal Of Glory
19:00 Sophar Sogood
19:00 Socially Shady
19:30 Storm Over
19:30 Queen Of Kalahari
19:30 Porterinthejungle
19:30 Burrows Seeside

 

Four meetings ? I'd been thinking of two years, to build in seasonal surface-variations and allow for the emergence of new trainers who didn't care for fibresand, particularly some higher-profile ones from Newmarket.

Prettier girls than you have commented critically on the early-peaking thing; but no, I can't deny the rumours. Merry Christmas.

 

Happy New Year, all, and I trust rested and refreshed ahead of the riddle-within-an-enigma that is World of Tapeta.

I won't waste the forum's time by putting up an odds-on shot in a 6-runner conditions race, but something would have to go very wrong for Arriviste not to win the 2.18. More speculatively, the claims of Restless Endeavour in the 3.28 aren't very obvious, but I think that Mick Appleby might have targeted this race (which he won in 2019 and 2020) after campaigning her almost exclusively over 6f since acquiring her from Grant Tuer. She has always looked to me as if a flat 5f might bring out the best in her and, though the wide draw could be either good or bad, at around 12-1 I'm willing to take the chance.