Thanks Gents, three winners on the day and a very tidy return on investment. Some very interesting races today, it looked to be riding very deep and that meant that those who went on the surface had more of an advantage than probably they do on a normal day at the course. A real eyecatcher in the last, which has an interesting stewards report. Worth going and finding it!! Also Custard The Dragon was found to have a irregular heartbeat after that race.
given its down to run over shorter next time it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. I’m struggling to find anything negative in the market for it today so it must have just been a poor ride.
It's back again!!! However its far from a vintage Southwell card tomorrow but early thoughts are in the next post
1:30 - Mulzim was very impressive last time out, and at 10/11 doesn't seem too bad a price, however I really like Young Tiger and I do think on his day he is possibly well treated and he might cause a minor upset here. It isn't a betting race, but one to watch to see if we get any indication of draw bias. 2:00 (I do really love these standard times) - Another odds on shot, and in a three runner race I wouldn't be wanting to take 4/5 about Ladyleys Beluga (awful name for a horse) against Sur Mer or Garsman. Another no bet race. 2:30 - A more interesting heat with 12 due to go to post and 4/1 the field at current prices. We have a few with course form, including the penalised The Eagle's Nest who won here 8 days previous. He is very well handicapped on old form still but despite winning at the course last time, I do wonder if he is best suited to the course and it might be worth taking him on. Equidae takes the eye from stall two. He should be able to sit prominently (some concern is that The Retriever will cut him off at the turn from stall 3) and he has good course form. However at the prices aren't worth the risk as he is only 5/1 currently. 3:00 - This is one to be more interested in, given the breeding of Big Impact, he is likely to be suited to the course and I think he will be a backable price in the morning. If I can get upwards of 8/1 then he is an Each Way bet. He is by Lethal Force out of a mare who has given us Electric Qatar (Southwell winner). He is with a yard who do well at the course and I think a few of these are vulnerable on the surface for the first time. Lion Tower is the right favourite but under a penalty he is vulnerable. Especially if the draw bias is against low (which hasn't been most of winter) 3:30 - Lots of early pace in this six runner race, with two course and distance winners in Mosakhar and Directory. I think they are reverse forecastable at 13/8 and 5/2 currently. Directory being the longer price is interesting given that he can be held onto more than the other one. So may provide a value to the bet. 4:00 - Very little course form on offer, and the one horse with the course form is a ten year old with a rating of 45! However mad it sounds, at 10/1 he is probably the each way bet in the race with the hope that he is better than shown at Newcastle last time. His form with Decision Maker makes him of interest and he is at least pretty consistent on the course. He is drawn nicely to attack and this race hasn't got much of a pace competition so he may be able to dictate the race from the front. 4:30 - Arabian King is going to be hard to beat, however at 4/7 he can be left alone. So its the 3:00, 3:30 and 4:00 to see if we can be profitable once more.
Evening, all. The 5f handicap at 1.30 tomorrow is a race in which I'd normally keep a close eye on the market right up till off-time. However, i can't post on Wednesday, so I'll put preliminary thoughts here, on the understanding that the selection is highly provisional. and shouldn't be treated as a major investment vehicle. The two chief contenders have different - and counter-intuitive - profiles. Mulzim, forecast at odds-on, is a 6yo who, until last week's win, was dropping in the weights. He's penalised here, but due to go up another couple of pounds imminently. Young Tiger is a 7yo, running here off 69, but who was rated as low as 48 only last October. I can't find anyone to agree with me, but I thought that Mulzim's easy win last week was more down to sub-standard performances by the opposition than any dramatic improvement of his own. On the face of it, his time was very respectable for the grade but, again, my impression was that that was due to track conditions on the day rather than his suddenly finding an unsuspected fifth gear. My guess is that the best relevant form here is the race in which they both ran behind National Anthem. I take Young Tiger to confirm that form, and I don't believe that Tom Tate would run him here unless he thought he had the beating of Mulzim. For swivel-eyed conspiracy theorists, Six Strings is entered here again on Friday (3.40) over 6f.
Young Tiger 11/4 - 1.30 Reshaan 8/1 - 4. 00 Cape Hideaway 10/1 - 4.30 I think Cape Hideaway is an interesting proposition here after there was some money about for him at the weekend, he was a spent force after being driven up to track the lead early and it looked more like a piece of work to me than an attempt to place as best as his abilities allowed. Mick Appleby is a trainer I always take notice of around here and with the horse having won on soft, soft/heavy, I am optimistic the surface won't pose a problem. Fingers crossed one pokes it's nose in front first at the lollipop stick for me Good luck.
First bet is Young Tiger @ 5.0 on the exchange. I have put in place a lay of the horse at a value close to 2.0 to save stakes as the only issue I have with him is his finishing effort sometime leaves a bit to be desired.
Not sure what Mullen was doing pulling him into the backwash from Red Stripes. Stayed on nicely but only went as low as 3.3. Mulzim trainer interviewed before the race stating that he is fragile and that is why he hasn't been seen that often. Clearly a talented horse who can continue to improve if staying sound.
