The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

He was entered up at 5 days stage, I guess they are saving him for a higher class race in the next few weeks.

 

Honey Gg was very resolute again and got the first Southwell win. Horse is clearly thriving at the minute and now looks so obvious after the race. The selection has issues by the look of that, head was carried in a weird way and found nothing when asked.

 

One of those days today, hopefully Sooqaan runs well in the last

 

Doing a great job Nass.

 

It's that time of the week again!!!

Here are the days sires in order of % strike rate -

Declaration Of War 60
Lethal Force 44
Society Rock 35
Kendargent 33
Smart Strike 31
Mayson 29
Dubawi 28
Passing Glance 28
Naaqoos 26
Requinto 25
Speightstown 25
Baltic King 22
Teofilo 21
Gio Ponti 20
Pivotal 19
Shamardal 19
Fastnet Rock 18
Makfi 18
Big Bad Bob 17
Captain Gerrard 17
Dawn Approach 17
Invincible Spirit 17
Poet's Voice 17
Harbour Watch 16
Iffraaj 16
Dandy Man 15
Rip Van Winkle 15
Bated Breath 14
Medicean 14
More Than Ready 13
Oasis Dream 13
Sepoy 13
Approve 12
Assertive 12
Galileo 12
Kodiac 12
Kyllachy 12
Captain Rio 11
Tagula 11
Royal Applause 11
Acclamation 10
Arakan 10
Equiano 10
Holy Roman Emperor 10
Fast Company 9
Ad Valorem 8
Choisir 8
Desideratum 8
Lawman 8
Lilbourne Lad 8
Elzaam 8
Bertolini 7
Majestic Missile 6
Mawatheeq 6
Rock of Gibraltar 6
Azamour 4
Hellvelyn 2

 

11:50 Nursery

Fascinating heat for sire statistics, with three sires in the race having 25% or greater strike rate (all have had small numbers of runners) with Lethal Force doing the best of all the sires with a 44% strike rate. Fflur is that runner, he has a nice run last time out on the artificial surface at Newcastle and should really take to this. The worry with Fflur is that she can be slow away, and you don't want to get stuck in the kickback behind horses here.

Funnily enough a horse who beat Fflur home that day is the one I think has a massive chance, Lexicon is the horse in question by Mayson who has 29% strike rate as a sire on the surface (larger sample size) and she ran well from a prominent position in that Newcastle race.

She is currently around 9/2 which is a tad short. I will revisit the betting in the morning for this.

 

12:20 Fox Kasper

This horse has a few massive positives tomorrow, the first being the sire statistics where Society Rock has a 35% strike rate, and the second being the yard he is from and the third being the form he already has in the book. He was sent off 8/1 on debut and ran a promising debut, finishing third at Kempton. That day he showed that he might not have gears to quicken off a gallop, but he showed that he could go a decent pace in a gallop.

Tomorrow he is drawn nicely to attack early, get a prominent position and provide tough to pass. He is rightly the favourite and can go very well. Any market support for Platinum Coast would be interesting, as he is by Speightstown who has a 25% rate at the course and has proved to be a sire to stay on the right side of at Southwell.

 

12:50 Kommander Kirkup

This horse is really hard to oppose for me, having won with such authority last time out against First Excel off a mark of 65. Tomorrow he runs off top weight in a claimer, but I think even from his new handicap mark he would probably win a competitive handicap at the course. They are striking whilst he is in form, and I think he will defy the weight and the pull in weights with horses who are rated similar to him in the handicap.

I can't believe we can get 4/1 about him!! NAP of the day.

 

1.20 Long distance race - No bet

1.50

Race looks to revolve around the in form and proven Honey Gg who is only up 3lbs for her win at the course last time out. She has the form in the book and I think she is fairly marked at 60, given that she won by a comfortable enough distance at the line.

However I was really taken by the run of old boy Divine Call at the course on his penultimate run, he won with good authority that day, and for me looked a horse that could have a very productive winter on the surface.

I have it between the pair, but my money is on Divine Call. The shortness in the market of Archimedes worries me, whilst we have two horses right out of the handicap who are fascinating sorts on sire statistics... Foreign Legion with headgear on for a sire who has a great early career record at the course and Ritas Legacy whose sire has a 28% strike rate. The former has shown nothing of note over further, but is very interesting dropped in trip and with headgear on, and the latter doesn't have the form to go with the sire statistics and might be one for the lowest of low handicaps later in the winter.

I am having a saver on Foreign Legion at 33s

 

2.20

Good course form on show here, and this is probably the strongest race we've seen this winter at the course in handicap company. We have recent winning course form with Weld El Emerat versus the brilliant course record of Hammer Gun, whilst Monks Stand has the course form in the book and London has one brilliant course win from a much higher mark in the past.

To me though this race revolves around a good strong pace, with four strong front runners in the list and that looks set to set it up for Hammer Gun to come off the pace. Hammer Gun's last two wins here have the word "outpaced" in the race report from ATR, and again I think that might be more of an advantage in a strongly run race here, where stamina and resolution come to the fore.

 

2.50

Earl Of Bunnacurry missed the break last time out and then all chance was gone, so he must be rated higher than the bare form after a good course win on his run three starts ago. Mr Coco Bean ran well in third place last time out from a wide stall and has to be a positive here with his sire stats of 20%.

This race doesn't have much to go on with sire statistics, they are much of a muchness in the +ve marks with plenty having poor sire statistics. I think the market has it about right, and I am not rushing in to back anything here

3.20

This is a right old race, my old friend Sooqaan must have a great chance (26%) whilst recent course form between Zodiakos and Break The Silence will be tested. Throw in course form of Boots And Spurs (well supported last time) and it becomes a nice little race.

What is interesting about this race is the lack of major competition for the lead, and those four mentioned will all probably sit prominently and that will pay dividends for them.

However the fly in the ointment may well be Decoration Of War, who is by a sire with a 60% course record!! If the 33s shot goes in earlier, this thing will go off very short!! He has the form from other all weather courses to suggest his mark is fair, and if he improves at all for the switch to Southwell then he will be very dangerous to all.

I will be backing Sooqaan, Decoration Of War and Zodiakos in forecasts.

 

So a bit of comparison of the front 3 in the market in the races mentioned by sire stats

11:50
Fflur 44%
Lexicon 29%
Fenjal 12%

12:20
Fox Kaspar 35%
Zip 12%
St Peters Basilica 12%

12:50
Epeius 10%
Kommander Kirkup 12%
Point Zero 15%

1:50
Honey Gg 29%
Archimedes 17%
Divine Call 19%

2:20
Weld Al Emerat 28%
Hammer Gun 31%
Mr Minerals 17%

2:50
Earl Of Bunnacurry 12%
Mr Coco Bean 20%
Helen Sherbet 18%

3:20
Shearian 11%
Mametz Wood 8%
Decoration Of War 60%

 

Cracking stuff, Nass, thoroughly appreciate this, interesting and illuminating as ever.
At the time you will be cheering on your selections I'll be sitting down to my team Xmas Lunch, so I wish you luck.
The 2.20 looks a cracker - watch out for London.

Enjoy.

 

I think it’s you who needs the luck!! Christmas dinner with colleagues. Eurgghhhhh

 

Mayson gets another winner.

 

Who knew that they’d be targeting that race!

 

Get in.