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Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Nov 26, 2018.
mocking my elders perhaps.
Alpha Tauri gets forced wide by forceful ride on Geography Teacher and then gets touched off for third. Hmmphhh
I never heard the full story - did the Creative-Crayoning thing not work out ?
There's a nourishing and protein-filled card at the Venue of Legends today, and I'm drawn to the sprint at 5.15. It's interesting that Isle of Innisfree is at a single-figure price when its last three runs - all absolutely dreadful - would make you think 25/1 and upwards. It stopped so quickly in each of those races that you'd guess the explanation had to be physical, and the recent wind-operation, the experiment with the visor, and the booking of Ben Curtis all suggest that this might be the day. Currently rated 79 (did get to 95 last year after beating the fairly smart All the King's Men in Ireland), but this is the sort of race where weights and measures matter a lot less than fitness and market support.
By no means a banker, but worth a speculative punt in my opinion. To paraphrase the great man:
There midnight's all a-glimmer, and noon a purple glow,
And evening full of the rustle of £20 notes.
I had a good look at that race last night and thought it was so tricky because so many of them hadn't shown on the surface and that most of the pace was drawn low.
Isle Of Innisfree comes with positive sire statistics and then the wind op angle, plus with the money around it makes him very interesting. It will be interesting to see if the money continues into the evening, or whether it was the Southwell fans backing him because of the sire statistics.
Drifting back out now , you're theory looking most likely Nass, of the Southwell fans, wouldn't take a huge amount of early money to drive his price in early doors. In saying that, it's a wide open heat and the one who has drawn me back several times is Mick Appleby's Free Love.
On a slight side note, I wonder was the horse named after the W. B. Yeats poem, "Lake Isle of Innisfree", or rather the more popularised Dick Farrelly poem, "Isle of Innisfree" which was popularised by Bing Crosby back in the day.
Tawny Port did it nicely in a strange race, nearside runners didn't really get into it and Free Love was well off the pace all the way. Samovar is a peculiar animal, backed him twice over the numerous times he has ran and he missed the break both times. Usually gives his running when going on terms or near to them anyway.
I got that right in terms of the draw and pace, if I’d been around the market move would have been really eyecatching.
Well, there's drifting and then there's falling off the edge of the world. You knew 20 minutes before the off that Isle of Innisfree wouldn't be troubling the judge (I saw 30s on the exchange, and there may have been more). I don't think this was anything to do with the surface, or not liking the visor, or anything similarly fancy: working theory would be that the horse has fallen out of love with racing, and you follow him at your peril.
I wondered if you backed Auchterarder at Wolves, Nass, after the very taking run at Southwell last time ? I gave it a long and thoughtful look, but decided against - got an aversion to backing anything that turns up at Wolves or Chelmsford shortly after running well here.
All my theories seem to be falling apart. Perhaps I'll get a turquoise shell-suit and talk to David Icke.
Without wanting to aftertime. Yes I did.
Well done. And your modesty does you credit.
Nice one Cindi
Bit harsh,, Stick - he was asked a direct question.
No 5f races here today, so I had a mild sulk and prepared to withdraw from the battle. However, a second look leads me towards Fair Alibi in the 3.40. I've no statistics to support this, but I do prefer non-claimers in amateur races on this track, and the Millman booking is interesting. Tom Tate (Michael Dickinson's brother-in-law, nice bloke, a very fair jump jockey until his eyesight went, and has trained a TIngle Creek winner) likes a pop at the ring when conditions are right, and there's been some early money around for it.
It has won here, but only at 5f. You'd think that a Paco Boy wouldn't have a problem with 6f, but you never know. It's coming off a 10-week break as well, so there are a lot of what-ifs, and I wouldn't want less than about 4-1. Watch them as the gates open - I think this race might be won and lost at the start.
I'd agree with you in terms of amateur races at Southwell, and Millman Jnr is a top amateur. I worry that in this race they will go too quick and make it into a stamina test and Fair Alibi over the trip worries me. I am not betting in this, but i'd go for the nepotism angle with Caribbean Spring (Or Bean if you are on twitter) who might just pick up the race if staying close enough to the pace through the early stages from the wide draw.
Horrible horrible race, good luck and all that
My social obligations weigh so heavily today that I don't have time for analysis. So, I'll just leave the observation that, in the 5f race at 12.55, the current first five in the BF exchange betting are drawn 2-3-1-5-4 respectively. When theories clash with facts, it's usually wise not to bet, so I won't. GL, all.
derek shaw ( in form) has lewis edmunds booked for Harbour Vision 345 southwell at 7/1 without suitcase n taxi running seems a fair punt , shaw does well here , and edmunds has southwell in his dna , his dad was a specialist at the track
That didn't go to plan ,was backed but didn't really show much after being outpaced
I thought that I might have found the Philosopher's Stone last night, when the early tissue seemed to suggest that the 3yo Clipsham Tiger might price up at odds on for the 4.50, and leave me to fill my boots on Motahassen at 2-1 or better. That particular illusion didn't last long, and the market corrected itself very rapidly. I still think Mota's something of a good thing, but at around 11-10 it's much less attractive, and I'll probably confine myself to one boot.