Our 10 point lead over Watford and Brentford could be seen as an advantage of 3 wins and a draw. That's a huge factor for them to overcome, as those are points in hand rather than Swansea's 2 games in hand which are effectively still 'in the bush'. The pressure will mount on them as the games left diminish. Any loss of points makes their task that much more difficult. Here's one pundit who thinks we'll be promoted and then stay up as well: https://www.pinkun.com/sport/norwic...s-norwich-for-premier-league-survival-7814042
Moreover RER, it means we have to lose three and draw one of our last eleven games, or lose two and a lot of draws. And even then they would have to win every game left. And Watford have to play all of the other top four, so points will be dropped.
I can't believe how many posts I'm reading going over and over how many points we might or might not get and how many this club or that club need to catch us or deny us automatic promotion etc. Guys, it's done.
I think we need a full statistical analysis detailing exactly how that calculation was reached Robbie.
I think it's reasonable not to count chickens just yet - do you remember under Lambert when QPR were 10 points or so ahead of us with only half a dozen or so matches before the end of the season, but then limped over the line only securing the title right near the end of the season? We nearly caught them. Yes, they had a rough run of form and if I recall correctly there were question marks around their finances which seemed to disrupt them, but it still goes to show that even big points gaps can be closed. I also seem to remember Liverpool lost the Premier League title from nearly as far ahead as we are now not that long ago? The famous Gerrard slip.
Lose the next 2 games and all of a sudden it could be wide open again. Win them , and it is all over.
I agree with robbie, it's done. At this time it's a matter of whether we finish first or second. Fourteen points from eleven games is a pretty modest target and that takes us to ninety. It's just about possible that one of the chasing pack could make ninety. Two out of Watford, Swansea and Brentford virtually impossible. Brentford are eighteenth in the current form table with six points from their last six games.
Yet for every such example, there are others where teams have enjoyed smooth passage to the title (Hughton's Newcastle, would be one). What happens does so for reasons. Yes, we could suffer calamitous injuries; our squad could be struck down by a new, hugely incapacitating variant of Covid-19, etc., etc. But no such major calamity is in any real sense probable.
So where are the facts? I think some of us recall that sinking feeling we had when we lost to Swansea. We responded strongly to that but I'm with Rob about not counting chickens. I think we are almost there for promotion, but I want us to finish as champions as well and that will take longer.
I must admit I didn't. I half expected it. Swansea are a decent side and we expect to lose away games to a few of the promotion chasers. Watford, Bournemouth.
I seem to recall that we lost first place as a result and after 4 straight winless games without scoring a single goal there was more than a suggestion that things could be slipping. Little did I know we'd then go on a run of 6 straight wins and establish a 10 point lead.