The season 2020 - 2021.

0-2 to Leeds in a close match spoiled by an officious referee who sent off 3 players (McAlear and Sitti for us). The second goal was a soft penalty in the 6th minute of injury time. Stieperman looked comfortable on the ball and played 64 minutes. Mumba was particularly impressive - dynamic, pacey and good defensively as well. Looked to be a good replacement for Aarons if he goes. Josh Martin looked assured on the ball without managing much penetration.

 

We have averaged over 2 points per game with 15 games to go (2 points per game + 2). We are still 18 points above 7th. Next 2 games look winnable as does the home game against Brentford on the 3rd of March. Brentford game is nowhere near as key as it was a couple of weeks ago. Form 11 points from last 6 games.

Brentford in 2nd and 7 points behind us and in free fall, Toney is currently injured, if he's out for a couple of weeks Brentford can wave goodbye to an autos spot. Form 9 points from last 6 games.

Watford leepfrog Swansea to go third and 7 points behind us. Form 11 points from last 6 games the same as us.

Swansea hit a roadblock at Huddersfield and their unbeaten run come to an abrupt end. They are 8 points below us with 2 games in hand. Form 13 points from last 6 games.

Reading fill 5th position 13 points behind us. Form 7 points from last 6 games.

Bournemouth are in 6th and 15 points behind us. Form 7 points from last 6 games. They play Cardiff next who are top of the form table.

At this time I still think there is a 99.999999 % chance of us finishing in the top 6, a 70 % chance of us finishing in the top 2 and a 55% chance of us winning the league (up from 50% last week).

 

Thanks Canario - we’ve only got 15 games left I think

 

Amended. Thanks.

 

Seven points is a big lead on top of 3 straight wins. Swansea is the biggest threat because of their 2 games in hand, though they were taken apart by the terriers today. It's a huge blow when you lose a long unbeaten run like that as Brentford found out, losing their next 2 games as well. Remember how low we felt after losing to Seansea. How well they respond could be key. I'd give us an 80% chance of a top 2 finish because both Brentford and Watford have to come to CR. As for finishing top, I'd say about a 60% chance and my money would be on Swansea for the other top 2 place.

 

Currently we are 4/7 on for top spot and 1/6 on for promotion. Not entirely sure how much I relish our return to the top flight though. All the chasing pack have had problems with the possible exception of Swansea. Although losing 4-1 to Huddersfield could be the start of their tough patch. We seem to have got over ours. Just watched Brentford on Quest. Taken apart by a Coventry team that we brushed aside.

 

Sam McCallum's loan to Coventry seems to be paying off. He was rated 7.5 in their win over Brentford and is averaging 6.95 when playing at LB or LWB, which is not bad in a struggling side. He's also their second highest ranked player. He will qualify as an under 21 next season, so won't take a squad place.

 

Looks like a good one for the future.
Impressed when I saw him on the box in their last game

 

If he comes back to us next season he'll have either one or both of Giannoulis and Quintilla to dislodge too. Still can't work out if we're obliged to buy these loan signings outright if we're promoted. I've been impressed with both so not a bad problem i guess.

 

McCallum is only 20, so he can afford to wait. We paid £3.5m for him so SW and DF must think he has what it takes. He's also versatile, playing at RB and RWB for Coventry this season. Giannoulis looks better and better with each game and Quintilla offers different skills so we'll have to wait and see. Certainly if we retain Giannoulis and Quintilla and Gibson as well, we're paying out around £18m plus their wages before any new players come in. Big decisions ahead, should we be promoted.

 

I would hope that if we are playing in the PL league next year that McCallum would be loaned out to another Championship team or possibly a continental team.

 

I thought similarly, but the 25 player limit and 'homegrown player' issues in the PL have to be considered. That only allows for two extra players after the usual 2 players per position plus a 3rd GK. Idah, Mumba and McCallum all count as under 21s, so don't count, but it is still a squeeze.

 

What do you all make of the National League and them keeping going when National Leagues N and S have stopped?

Dover have stopped playing and several clubs including Kings Lynn look like they can't keep going for the rest of the season because taking on loans would break the clubs.

.... what makes me sick is you then have premiership players on 200-300k a week and the prem has a slush fund it is just sitting on, then there's the sweet FA...

 

Not sure where to post this, but interesting to see that the Sun are reporting we have turned down a £20m bid for Aarons from Roma (of all clubs). There seems to be even more interest in him and that is clearly a starting bid.

 

The question is whether this is just a lazy journo at the Sun picking up a lazy journo rumour in Italy and the same could be true of the Everton and ManUtd rumours. How many blogs picked up the Buendia to Arsenal dodgy rumours until they were finally dismissed by Arsenal.

I'm sure SW has a plan should any of our players leave (witness Gibson, Quintilla and Giannoulis as replacements for Godfrey and Lewis). There was a huge gain in that with the rest of the money available for the future. The asking price for Aarons is reported to be £35m and that would certainly secure our future and allow a quality replacement to add to Byram and Mumba with money saved. Long term solutions to promote survival if we're promoted.

 

Wasn't a firm bid for Max turned down in January (as reported in the EDP)? No club was mentioned at the time but an Italian club trying to steal a march on the likes of Barcelona or Bayern would seem not implausible (if futile ).

 

£20 mil from Roma. Obviously they were just testing the waters. Either SW or DF said it wasn't the right club for Max, anyway; they didn't say why.

 

Our three have all been brilliant, and not just in February.

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Don't remember Carlton being a left sided midfielder whilst he was here? Do they always squeeze this into a 4-4-2 for no reason?

 

Barnsley play a 3-4-3 formation so my guess was that they shifted Carlton from the front 3 into midfield as a compromise.