Interesting statistical analysis of whether we 'deserve' to be leading the table right now: https://norwichcity.myfootballwrite...-of-the-championship-what-do-the-numbers-say/ We're second on xG stats, but only 15th on xGa, though our actual goals conceded total is far below the xGa rating. Part of that is down to Krul's performances before his injury, but also the improvement Handley's excellent form has brought and Gibson's form since taking over from Godfrey. For me, it also indicates that our recruitment priorities should be focused on defence and GK now that McGovern is out for at least 3 months. GK, LB and CB in that order, IMO.
So halfway through, minimum of 3 points clear of everyone else when the games in hand shake out. 8 ahead of 7th. In terms of our fixtures for the rest of the season, by month, this is where our opposition currently sit: Jan: 15 (A) 10 (H) 17 (A) 7 (H) Feb: 2 (A) 8 (H) 16 (A) 23 (H) 18 (A) 24 (H) Mar: 3 (H) 14 (H) 21 (A) 19 (A) 11 (H) Apr: 12 (A) 13 (H) 22 (A) 5 (H) 6 (H) 20 (A) May: 4 (H) 9 (A) Highlighted the games against the rest of the top 6, April is going to be a massive month. Too optimistic to hope for fans back in the ground to roar us through those games? Like others have said, we've got a lot of the tough away games out of the way. A trip to Swansea the only away game at a team in the current in the top 8, with Barnsley and Preston the only other top 14 teams we face on the road.
Magic 90 points is the target for automatic promotion. So 13 wins and 4 draws. That allows up to 6 losses as long was we don’t draw too many.
Why do I always feel more confident after reading SW's words? https://www.edp24.co.uk/sport/norwich-city/webber-hopes-city-would-be-better-prepared-6518098 Says it all really.
"We have to try and find a different way next time, if we’re fortunate enough to be there, to have a better crack at it." That's an acknowledgement that, even though "our starting point will be a little bit better" (facilities, experience, finances), "a different way" will also be needed. Hmm! Interesting.
'Different way' could mean many things, but I hope one would be better recruitment - other than the acquisition of Byram and half a season of mixed performances from Amadou, we got very little from Fährmann, Drmic and nothing from Roberts. Duda had a few bright points and might have made a difference if we'd had him all season. Tactically, we've already seen some changes this season and for the PL I'd hope we defend better and counterattack more than we did before, especially in away games. Gibson and Quintilla have strengthened the defence, but we need another quality LB and one more CB to cover injuries. Sørensen, Placheta, Dowell and Mumba have provided promising new options and it'd be great if we could keep Skipp for another season. All of them would be well integrated by then and ready to go from the off.
It looks like the change has already started. One factor (of many) is we seem to have found more of that "balance" between defence and attack. (Currently 5th lowest conceding defence and 5th best goal scorers in the league). Our defensive fragility going into the PL last time was our achilles heel given we never had the same number of scoring opportunities as we'd enjoyed in the 18/19 Championship promotion season.
We may be 5th lowest in terms of goals conceded, but in terms of chances conceded (i.e. xGa) we are way down in 15th according to the conservative footballxg.com (conservative in comparison to experimental 3-6-1 who measure the gap as even greater). As the article in myfootballwriter (see above) puts it, that suggests "either wasteful opposition or outstanding goalkeeping." Given better quality strikers in the EPL (and better penalty takers), such defensive improvement as we've managed to date is still well short of what's needed IMO.
Adding to that, the one thing we do know as regards our CBs is that Hanley is not EPL quality. He's a good Championship defender, experienced and whole-hearted, but nothing more. We had high hopes for Zimmermann, until his injury put paid to them, and Gibson is pretty much an unknown quantity at the top level (just one season in the EPL, in a relegated 'Boro team). We don't just need "another" CB; we need a proven EPL quality CB.
How do we know he's not EPL quality ? From my memory we seemed to play much better when he was in the team and fell apart big time post lock down when he was long term injured. Hanley spent most of our PL season either doing ok, being injured or returning from injury. I can see Gibson / Hanley combination with the right midfield in front of them doing much better next season should we go up.
Unfortunately I agree that Hanley does not look PL class and a better quality replacement is needed. We also need a classier alternative option to Pukki other than Hugill
So great both seasons in the Championship and poor in the PL season. So what you're saying is he didn't have a great season when we were in the PL. Agreed. But why does that translate to his not good enough for the PL. You could say the same for Pukki & Buendia and almost all our players, with the exception of Krul, Cantwell and maybe Aarons.
I think we're getting ahead of ourselves, need to try and secure promotion first by any means necessary
I agree with Canario. I do not think Hanley's PL quality has been determined. He wasn't fit enough and never formed a settled partnership last season. In the 14 games he played, we won 12 points, which was above our performance for the season (though admittedly he only played the end of the Bournemouth game, so it's really 9 points from 13 games but that is still just above our points rate for the whole season). Don't get me wrong, I think it's definitely in doubt, but in my opinion he has actually improved recently. He's our most consistent performer, actually offers a threat from corners/free kicks and is definitely quick enough for the PL.
It was more the statement 'the one thing we do know as regards our CBs is that Hanley is not EPL quality' when in truth we know nothing of the sort. Hanley seems to be a lot of people's scapegoat for our PL performances, when it truth, when he played we performed considerably better than when he didn't.
To be honest robbie, I know you think it's amusing, but that's exactly the sort of flippant comment which is just annoying. You know full well that's neither what he or I was saying. And it is a stupid point, because CBs traditionally do improve with age - in fact many footballers blossom after the age of 25, and Hanleys best years probably are the next three. So let's keep this sensible and polite. Or if we're going to joke, let's make it funny.
I wasn't joking. Canario posted as if last season was Hanley's only experience of playing at the top level. It wasn't. Nor did Canario pay any attention to Hanley's international career. There's ample evidence in GH's career history warranting the conclusion that he's no more than a good Championship quality defender. The fact that we performed marginally better last season with him in the team doesn't make him EPL quality. Nor does the fact that he's proved his worth for us in the Championship. That's just what you'd expect of a good Championship CB.
