thing about our run in is that we have sheff utd at home so that gd for arsenal could vanish in a flash if we are really about it.
Match Day Thread The Run In
- Thread starter RogerisontheHunt
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Man City play Arsenal next but Arsenal don't have to play City? Is this a Freudian slip that you think Arsenal won't even show up and just bend over for City?
The good thing about City vs Arsenal is that one of them has to lose points.
Either the club we worry about most, or the club who are currently on top, will drop at least 2 points. Ideally this will be a draw as that means both our main rivals drop points... But any result is a win for us as long as we win our game too.
I'm starting to hope Arsenal don't win. We need something to check their run of form in the league even if it gives City an extra point. Their run after City looks tricky on paper but most of those teams seem to be flagging at this stage of the season.
I also worry that potentially failing to beat Porto may give them an advantage in the run in.
I also worry that potentially failing to beat Porto may give them an advantage in the run in.
With 10 games and thirty points to play for, a draw for Citeh/Arsenal must be the favoured result from our perspective.
- May 22, 2011
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Unusual of them to go into the quarter final, however I want them to beat Porto.
At this moment in time a draw looks most favourable... Shame we don't have the knowledge or foresight to see which of those two teams are really going to be our main rival (either for first or second) come the end of the season. It would be nice to be able to call for a result without the possibility of looking like a wally in two months time.
they should as we all know porto don't travel well.
it's nice and easy beating up inferior teams but when a competent Europe team shows up you have to show more quality.
they need a first half goal and that'll settle them down.
lfc run in squad
gk. kelleher, Adrian. allison to return at some point in April
rb: Bradley, trent to return for utd away.
lb: Robertson, tsimikas
cb gomez, vvd konate quansah
6. endo. bajcetic in preseason
lcm. macallister, Jones, gravenberch, Clark
rcm. szoboszlai, Elliott
rw. salah
St. nunez, gakpo. jota to return for utd league game
lw. diaz plus one of above.
long term: matip, thiago.
if we can manage the resources here then we've loads of options here.
really we are looking at taking Brighton on with a decent side and then seeing players return for sheff utd and more for utd away.
it's really going to requires some kids like McConnell, danns etc to push very hard to get time in these games.
gk. kelleher, Adrian. allison to return at some point in April
rb: Bradley, trent to return for utd away.
lb: Robertson, tsimikas
cb gomez, vvd konate quansah
6. endo. bajcetic in preseason
lcm. macallister, Jones, gravenberch, Clark
rcm. szoboszlai, Elliott
rw. salah
St. nunez, gakpo. jota to return for utd league game
lw. diaz plus one of above.
long term: matip, thiago.
if we can manage the resources here then we've loads of options here.
really we are looking at taking Brighton on with a decent side and then seeing players return for sheff utd and more for utd away.
it's really going to requires some kids like McConnell, danns etc to push very hard to get time in these games.
Top three: Remaining Premier League fixtures
Fixtures preview: Liverpool's 2023-24 run-in - Liverpool FC
Fixtures preview: Liverpool's 2023-24 run-in - Liverpool FC
just a quick update on stats
City are nearly done thier "top 7 scab club" fixtures for the seaosn and have 18 point. quite unuusual for city they have drawn 6 of these 11 games with only spurs away to come.
LFC have played 10 and lost 2 (both to arsenal) and drawn 5. this puts us on 14 points. We have SPurs and man utd and realistically we must win both to see any chance of keeping up with city.
Arsenal have only played 9 of thier 12 with Cheslea, Spurs and man utd to come. (not exactly the best clus)
When we look at the clubs to be played man utd seriously struggle to score goals. 40 goas from 29 games is 20 odd goals behind all the rivals above them. By contrast spurs score plenty but their defence is costing them with about 12 more conceded at this point.
I think we need to beat spurs at home as i think they others will. Utd away will be tough as they will **** house it.
In the non top 6 battle LFC are actually 4 points better off than any other club. Arsenal have played 1 more non top 7 club than us and city 1 less. this is why the city run in looks easier.
If we look at the goals against column City are -5 on us against the non top 7 and aresnal -3. We are letting non top 7 clubs score a bit more.
When i look the other way at this we are better defensively so far agasint the top 7 but by contract we then struggle to score agasint them. this tells me theres a different emphasis going on.
Our record v the bottom half suggests anything less than 15 points form sheef utd, wolves, everton, palace and fulham will be a disappointment
I'm still looking at villa away as our absolute hardest game as they have something to play for big time.
City are nearly done thier "top 7 scab club" fixtures for the seaosn and have 18 point. quite unuusual for city they have drawn 6 of these 11 games with only spurs away to come.
LFC have played 10 and lost 2 (both to arsenal) and drawn 5. this puts us on 14 points. We have SPurs and man utd and realistically we must win both to see any chance of keeping up with city.
Arsenal have only played 9 of thier 12 with Cheslea, Spurs and man utd to come. (not exactly the best clus)
When we look at the clubs to be played man utd seriously struggle to score goals. 40 goas from 29 games is 20 odd goals behind all the rivals above them. By contrast spurs score plenty but their defence is costing them with about 12 more conceded at this point.
I think we need to beat spurs at home as i think they others will. Utd away will be tough as they will **** house it.
In the non top 6 battle LFC are actually 4 points better off than any other club. Arsenal have played 1 more non top 7 club than us and city 1 less. this is why the city run in looks easier.
If we look at the goals against column City are -5 on us against the non top 7 and aresnal -3. We are letting non top 7 clubs score a bit more.
When i look the other way at this we are better defensively so far agasint the top 7 but by contract we then struggle to score agasint them. this tells me theres a different emphasis going on.
Our record v the bottom half suggests anything less than 15 points form sheef utd, wolves, everton, palace and fulham will be a disappointment
I'm still looking at villa away as our absolute hardest game as they have something to play for big time.
- May 22, 2011
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- 27,980
- 113
FYI - 2 losses weren’t both to arsenal. We drew 1 game and the other defeat was to spurs in that game earlier in season.
I've tried...thanks! I must have blocked that refereeing scandal from my mind
They were both in North London. Arsenal and Spurs are pretty much the same really.
As said in other thread. This season the top three have dropped points on average, once every three games. Statistically compare to rest of the season that would suggest three more times points dropped- so to win have to do better than that.
Additionally points dropped probably won't be that frequent in the run-in. Motivations will be sky-high for the top three, but might lacking for some other teams we play. Additionally, I think teams have settled on their best tactics now and the top three have all played each other.
So with the number of games left, I think we can probably afford to screw-up and drop points just one time in the games left. Lose or draw two games, and it will be very risky.
Sheffield ,
United
CP
Fulham
Everton
Wham
Spud
Villa
Wolves
Wham through Villa looks the most dangerous. Wham-Spud-Villa will be three games in a row against teams who are fighting for a spot in Europe. We're probably very likely to drop points at least once during those three games... which means if we want to win the title we have to win the next five on the trot.
All the other teams we face (besides United) really don't have anything else to play for, they are not going to be relegated (Except Sheffield, and they're essentially already out), and they're not going to be in Europe, I suspect their performances are going to ease off a little.
Additionally points dropped probably won't be that frequent in the run-in. Motivations will be sky-high for the top three, but might lacking for some other teams we play. Additionally, I think teams have settled on their best tactics now and the top three have all played each other.
So with the number of games left, I think we can probably afford to screw-up and drop points just one time in the games left. Lose or draw two games, and it will be very risky.
Sheffield ,
United
CP
Fulham
Everton
Wham
Spud
Villa
Wolves
Wham through Villa looks the most dangerous. Wham-Spud-Villa will be three games in a row against teams who are fighting for a spot in Europe. We're probably very likely to drop points at least once during those three games... which means if we want to win the title we have to win the next five on the trot.
All the other teams we face (besides United) really don't have anything else to play for, they are not going to be relegated (Except Sheffield, and they're essentially already out), and they're not going to be in Europe, I suspect their performances are going to ease off a little.
This man to referee league match between Manchester United and Liverpool on Sunday.
ANTHONY TAYLOR,
We are in for a fight on Sunday
ANTHONY TAYLOR,
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We are in for a fight on Sunday
in theory all 3 side could end up over 90 points which is unheard of (as far as i am aware)
I did this analysis for run ins
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First this is the tightest run in in the past 16 years
Second its the lowest total since 2015/16 and guess who won then? yup Leicester when nobody else cared
Third the average with 10 to go is 67 points or so so this season is actually only 3 points below average.
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The fact theres 3 clubs in it at that level is possibly why its a tad down
LFC can get 94
Arsenal can get 92 (2 draws reduces this to 88)
City can get 91 (2 draws reduces this to 87)
LFC have to be at least aim to finish on 89 to 92 points mark and improve the GD doing so.
none play each other again this season so its a straight shoot out against teams who are also rans but have some danger on thier day.
