The run in
- Thread starter Schad
- Start date
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Some good news........ in the form of the games each team has left to play vs the top 10.....
West Ham - 5 of 8 Homes: M'boro (8th), Reading (6th), Birmingham (5th), Brighton (9th), and Hull (7th). 3 of 8 Aways: Blackpool (4th), Cardiff (3rd), Burnley (10th).
Saints - 1 of 7 Homes: Reading (6th). 3 of 8 Aways: Hull (7th), Blackpool (4th), M'boro (8th).
Cardiff - 3 of 8 Homes: West Ham (1st), Hull (7th), Burnley (10th). 3 of 7 Aways: Brighton (9th), Birmingham (5th), Middlesbrough (8th).
Blackpool - 5 of 8 Homes: West Ham (1st), Hull (7th), Brighton (9th), Saints (2nd), Burnley (10th). 1 of 7 Aways: Reading (6th).
Birmingham - 3 of 7 Homes: M'boro (8th), Cardiff (3rd), Reading (6th). 3 of 9 Aways: Burnley (10th), West Ham (1st), Brighton (9th).
Reading - 2 of 7 Homes: Burnley (10th), Blackpool (4th). 5 of 9 Aways: M'boro (8th), West Ham (1st), Brighton (9th), Saints (2nd), Birmingham (5th).
Hull - 3 of 8 Homes: Brighton (9th), Saints (2nd), M'boro (8th). 3 of 8 Aways: Blackpool (4th), Cardiff (3rd), West Ham (1st).
Middlesbrough 3 of 7 Homes: Reading (6th), Cardiff (3rd), Saints (2nd). 4 of 9 Aways: Birmingham (5th), West Ham (1st), Brighton (9th), Hull (7th).
Lonnnnng way to go guys, but I noticed we've only got 4 of our remaining 15 fixtures against top 10 sides. The rest of the main competitors all have 6 or more as follows........
West Ham (8 of 16), Cardiff (6 of 15), Blackpool (6 of 15), Birmingham (6 of 16), Reading (7 of 16), Hull (6 of 16), M'boro (7 of 16).
This may be our chance, it's what I'm clinging to anyway! ;-)
Lat
West Ham - 5 of 8 Homes: M'boro (8th), Reading (6th), Birmingham (5th), Brighton (9th), and Hull (7th). 3 of 8 Aways: Blackpool (4th), Cardiff (3rd), Burnley (10th).
Saints - 1 of 7 Homes: Reading (6th). 3 of 8 Aways: Hull (7th), Blackpool (4th), M'boro (8th).
Cardiff - 3 of 8 Homes: West Ham (1st), Hull (7th), Burnley (10th). 3 of 7 Aways: Brighton (9th), Birmingham (5th), Middlesbrough (8th).
Blackpool - 5 of 8 Homes: West Ham (1st), Hull (7th), Brighton (9th), Saints (2nd), Burnley (10th). 1 of 7 Aways: Reading (6th).
Birmingham - 3 of 7 Homes: M'boro (8th), Cardiff (3rd), Reading (6th). 3 of 9 Aways: Burnley (10th), West Ham (1st), Brighton (9th).
Reading - 2 of 7 Homes: Burnley (10th), Blackpool (4th). 5 of 9 Aways: M'boro (8th), West Ham (1st), Brighton (9th), Saints (2nd), Birmingham (5th).
Hull - 3 of 8 Homes: Brighton (9th), Saints (2nd), M'boro (8th). 3 of 8 Aways: Blackpool (4th), Cardiff (3rd), West Ham (1st).
Middlesbrough 3 of 7 Homes: Reading (6th), Cardiff (3rd), Saints (2nd). 4 of 9 Aways: Birmingham (5th), West Ham (1st), Brighton (9th), Hull (7th).
Lonnnnng way to go guys, but I noticed we've only got 4 of our remaining 15 fixtures against top 10 sides. The rest of the main competitors all have 6 or more as follows........
West Ham (8 of 16), Cardiff (6 of 15), Blackpool (6 of 15), Birmingham (6 of 16), Reading (7 of 16), Hull (6 of 16), M'boro (7 of 16).
This may be our chance, it's what I'm clinging to anyway! ;-)
Lat
Good analysis, which backs up my point that Blackpool have a decent run in while West Ham's is tough. I think the top six will remain so for the rest of the season, although the final order is still very debatable!
Thought I'd update this run-in thread as we've had 3 games since it was discussed.....
I'm now ruling out anyone that's not currently in the top 6 getting automatic promotion (risky I know!). This is not because I'm saying it's not possible for these to catch us, just that I don't believe it's likely that any of them can catch and pass 5 or more of the current top 6 bearing in mind that they won't all fall foul of form with games against each other also.
So, the top 6 and their games remaining vs Top 10 sides.....
Saints (65pts, pld34) - 1 of 6 Homes: Reading (3rd). 3 of 6 Aways: Hull (9th), Blackpool (4th), Middlesbrough (5th).
West Ham (64pts, pld 33) - 5 of 7 Homes: Middlesbrough (5th), Reading (3rd), Birmingham (6th), Brighton (7th), and Hull (9th). 1 of 6 Aways: Leeds (10th).
Reading (60pts, pld 33) - 2 of 6 Homes: Blackpool (4th), Leeds (10th). 4 of 7 Aways: West Ham (2nd), Brighton (7th), Saints (1st), Birmingham (6th).
Blackpool (56pts, pld 34) - 3 of 6 Homes: Brighton (7th), Saints (1st), Leeds (10th). 1 of 6 Aways: Reading (3rd).
Middlesbrough (56pts, pld 33) - 3 of 6 Homes: Leeds (10th), Cardiff (8th), Saints (1st). 4 of 7 Aways: Birmingham (6th), West Ham (2nd), Brighton (7th), Hull (9th).
Birmingham (55pts, pld 33) - 3 of 5 Homes: Middlesbrough (5th), Cardiff (8th), Reading (3rd). 2 of 8 Aways: West Ham (2nd), Brighton (7th).
So it's us and Blackpool with the kindest run-in's (4 of 12 against top 10 sides), with West Ham and Reading (6 of 13), Middlesbrough (7 of 13), and Birmingham (5 of 13). Birmingham are, however, blessed with only 5 remaining home fixtures compared to 8 aways.
Lat
I'm now ruling out anyone that's not currently in the top 6 getting automatic promotion (risky I know!). This is not because I'm saying it's not possible for these to catch us, just that I don't believe it's likely that any of them can catch and pass 5 or more of the current top 6 bearing in mind that they won't all fall foul of form with games against each other also.
So, the top 6 and their games remaining vs Top 10 sides.....
Saints (65pts, pld34) - 1 of 6 Homes: Reading (3rd). 3 of 6 Aways: Hull (9th), Blackpool (4th), Middlesbrough (5th).
West Ham (64pts, pld 33) - 5 of 7 Homes: Middlesbrough (5th), Reading (3rd), Birmingham (6th), Brighton (7th), and Hull (9th). 1 of 6 Aways: Leeds (10th).
Reading (60pts, pld 33) - 2 of 6 Homes: Blackpool (4th), Leeds (10th). 4 of 7 Aways: West Ham (2nd), Brighton (7th), Saints (1st), Birmingham (6th).
Blackpool (56pts, pld 34) - 3 of 6 Homes: Brighton (7th), Saints (1st), Leeds (10th). 1 of 6 Aways: Reading (3rd).
Middlesbrough (56pts, pld 33) - 3 of 6 Homes: Leeds (10th), Cardiff (8th), Saints (1st). 4 of 7 Aways: Birmingham (6th), West Ham (2nd), Brighton (7th), Hull (9th).
Birmingham (55pts, pld 33) - 3 of 5 Homes: Middlesbrough (5th), Cardiff (8th), Reading (3rd). 2 of 8 Aways: West Ham (2nd), Brighton (7th).
So it's us and Blackpool with the kindest run-in's (4 of 12 against top 10 sides), with West Ham and Reading (6 of 13), Middlesbrough (7 of 13), and Birmingham (5 of 13). Birmingham are, however, blessed with only 5 remaining home fixtures compared to 8 aways.
Lat
Interesting, I've learnt two things from that.
Firstly, that West Ham have a hellish run-in at home. I saw yesterday that they have homes games vs Doncaster and Watford this week, so those five home games above must exactly be their final five home games. And even if they come through them, they'll be taking points off those below us.
Secondly, that Birmingham only have five home games left - despite having 13 games left to play in total. I could be wrong, but I think they're a bit like us - pick up many more points at home than away.
Firstly, that West Ham have a hellish run-in at home. I saw yesterday that they have homes games vs Doncaster and Watford this week, so those five home games above must exactly be their final five home games. And even if they come through them, they'll be taking points off those below us.
Secondly, that Birmingham only have five home games left - despite having 13 games left to play in total. I could be wrong, but I think they're a bit like us - pick up many more points at home than away.
Great to see this. The only thing I would also add, is that West Ham have an easier ride for their away games than we do. On the other hand, I don't suppose many of us would want to to trade positions right now. Two home victories are the next step. COYRs!
Updated version below. I'm only doing it for Southampton, West Ham and Reading this time...Boro and Birmingham still have an outside shot, but I'm lazy and really don't want to think about the possibility of this turning back into a four or five team race, either.
Southampton
Games remaining: 10.
Remaining home games: 4.
Remaining away games: 6.
Average points of opponents, home: 38.0.
Average points of opponents, away: 49.3.
Average points of opponents, overall: 44.8.
Games against the current top ten: 4 (Hull away, Blackpool away, Reading home, Boro away).
West Ham
Games remaining: 11.
Remaining home games: 5.
Remaining away games: 6.
Average points of opponents, home: 58.6 (!).
Average points of opponents, away: 44.5.
Average points of opponents, overall: 50.9.
Games against the current top ten: 6 (Leeds away, every remaining home game).
Reading
Games remaining: 11.
Remaining home games: 4.
Remaining away games: 7.
Average points of opponents, home: 48.3.
Average points of opponents, away: 51.9.
Average points of opponents, overall: 50.6.
Games against the current top ten: 6 (Blackpool home, West Ham away, Leeds home, Brighton away, Southampton away, Birmingham away).
Southampton
Games remaining: 10.
Remaining home games: 4.
Remaining away games: 6.
Average points of opponents, home: 38.0.
Average points of opponents, away: 49.3.
Average points of opponents, overall: 44.8.
Games against the current top ten: 4 (Hull away, Blackpool away, Reading home, Boro away).
West Ham
Games remaining: 11.
Remaining home games: 5.
Remaining away games: 6.
Average points of opponents, home: 58.6 (!).
Average points of opponents, away: 44.5.
Average points of opponents, overall: 50.9.
Games against the current top ten: 6 (Leeds away, every remaining home game).
Reading
Games remaining: 11.
Remaining home games: 4.
Remaining away games: 7.
Average points of opponents, home: 48.3.
Average points of opponents, away: 51.9.
Average points of opponents, overall: 50.6.
Games against the current top ten: 6 (Blackpool home, West Ham away, Leeds home, Brighton away, Southampton away, Birmingham away).
Saints remaining home games (4), average points of opponents: 38, That looks great on paper, however other than Reading, we have to play the current bottom three, all battling against relegation. They will be fighting for their Championship lives at SMS! No easy games for us - well perhaps Pompey
Coventry might not have any hope left by the time they reach the final game, and Pompey may not have any players by that point. Doncaster might be a little tricky, but hopefully whatever they do to us, they also do to Reading this weekend!
Saints remaining home games (4), average points of opponents: 38, That looks great on paper, however other than Reading, we have to play the current bottom three, all battling against relegation. They will be fighting for their Championship lives at SMS! No easy games for us - well perhaps Pompey
They might be fighting for their lives, but they're still down there for a reason.
Saints remaining home games (4), average points of opponents: 38, That looks great on paper, however other than Reading, we have to play the current bottom three, all battling against relegation. They will be fighting for their Championship lives at SMS! No easy games for us - well perhaps Pompey
But it also may mean that they have to come out and play to get the win, which may suit us. I think the most worrying thing about our run in is the number of away matches, where we have struggled. Oddly I fancy us at Hull, not sure about Millwall though. I think Reading look in a strong position as they have three winnable away games coming up whereas West Hams mettle will be tested!
West Ham will do better against the stronger teams; it suits them to sit back and counter on the hoof.