And that is without the 39bn "divorce settlement" gap (which the UK may be able to easily pay from the WTO tariff surplus) .
The real money experts Mervyn King and Mark Carney have recently said that No Deal is not really an issue. Mervyn King has actually said it is the preferable deal. I am a little concerned by over 100 gagging orders issued by the government because no one is blocking reports that say a no deal will be a disaster, are they blocking reports to the contrary? King and Carney will also have an eye on the Euro and the way they expect the Eurozone to perform. It's in their DNA being chiefs of the BoE. It will give them a far more realistic foresight than those who just look at the UK. I don't trust any of our politicians, in particular our government. The more I try to look at the picture as a whole, the more I am convinced that a no deal is favourable. I don't have an issue with free movement, in fact I think it is a benefit. Free trade is a benefit for the EU, WTO terms are better for us until the Euro collapses and even then the imbalance in trade will probably work in our favour. I don't like the customs union, we would be taxed with no voice. I don't really have an issue with the ECJ. Even now they are only advisory, letting us know if we are obeying European Law. We don't have to do what they say, although it might cause issues if we didn't. Many people don't realise that.
I’ve always believed with the media that it’s not necessarily what they’re telling you, but what they’re not. It’s the withholding of information or selective information that I find despicable and the past 2.5 years have been a prime example of that. I’m perfectly aware of various positive Brexit/WTO stories of late but they rarely get any air time, if at all. This is a prime example. Of course that old argument bad news sells is easy to use as an excuse, but all this negativity and the at times ridiculous scare stories have been off the charts. Brexit has been the go-to default blameworthy reason for everything bad that’s happened over the past year, even when there’s clear evidence or reason given to the contrary. But I expect nothing less from the media. Jon Snow’s “white people” comment was a new low for him and frankly appalling. Imagine the reaction if it were the reverse. But no, he gets a free pass.
Recently in the last couple of weeks. Exactly where I don't know off hand but I have certainly read it. I will try and find the articles/article. 30 March [Brexit] could be the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness, while enhancing democratic accountability Governor Mark Carney, Bank Of England
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ne...xit-economic-damage-says-carney-37882118.html https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...leaders-not-ready-no-deal-warns-bank-england/
https://twitter.com/search?q=mark carney&src=tyah Reported in the Times as well but you need a subscription for that.
So reduced from catastrophic to just bad? Still no sign of no deal is no problem, and that’s simply because it’s a big problem.
He is saying that there will be opportunities as well. This is coming from Doom monger-in chief. Here is the Mervyn King report. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...g-says-Britain-leave-Europe-without-deal.html
All he’s said is that the preparations that have been made would hopefully reduce the damage to growth. No deal is the worst possible outcome, which is why everybody bar a cabal of far right nutters and discredited economists has been working to avoid it.
Read the Mervyn King piece. The British economy is only a very small part of Brexit, and in my opinion becoming a smaller part of the Brexit each day. My concerns are far more Euro-economic and Euro political than a few silly market traders either side of the English Channel squabbling about how much they are going to tax each other
King is a well known Brexiteer who aligned himself with Minford - who’s hypotheses have been discredited by virtually every other credible economist. The economy is massively important because everything else stems from it. If you’re economy isn’t performing, there goes your spending plans, cuts are made to essential services ( the last thing the UK needs right now after May’s decimation) social programmes are cut, expansion to benefit the economy long term has to be cancelled or put on hold. In short, if your economy is weak, so is your country. It’s people poorer, etc.
He is also a highly experienced Chief of the BoE with an understanding on the subject and likely out come far greater than the sum of the knowledge of dozens of these so called 'expert' fear monger politicians and journos.. When I need to know something in Engineering which is beyond my scope of knowledge, I ask someone who is an expert on the subject, not some old hack who has written an article regarding a construction project.
This isn’t the opinion of just journalists. It’s the opinion of the current governor of the BoE, not one who retired 6 years ago. It’s the opinion of virtually every credible economist- the only variance being the degree of damage a crash out, or no deal Brexit would do.
Not nearly as much damage as accepting Theresa Mays toxic deal could do. And even worse, accepting a deal tying us to the Customs Union.
We agree on that then. In my opinion there are two sensible out comes. 1 Leave with no deal, ideally a bit more time to get ready, but if the EU says no, go for it anyway. 2 Remain and fight to change the EU from within. To do that we need a Thatcher type leader, and we haven't got anyone who even gets close. This, if we had that kind of leader would be my preference, because it would be the best solution all round. However, as we don't, then I think we need to look after ourselves. If the EU continues on the same path, it will end in tears, the same will happen in Europe as has happened in the UK will the ultra right hijacking the populist movement, which in the worst scenario could result in another major European war.
Well, leaving with no deal is a non starter for me for reasons gone through. Your second preference is what I’ve advocated all along. The mood in Europe is moving away from centralism and those who say that a federal state is inevitable are wrong, IMO. Change will eventually come or be forced on Brussels by Strasbourg. All entities either evolve or die.
But death by war, or a potential series of Civil Wars is not ideal in anyone's book. I wish I had as much faith in the EU politicians being able to get their own house in order as you have. I don't believe that they are any better than our shower of sh!t. It may all be immaterial anyway. There is an alleged high court case (it could be a spoof)bbased on the precedent set in the Gina Miller case, which is claiming Theresa May acted illegally in asking for an extension to A50. Bill Cash mentioned it in parliament and told her that she was acting illegally. UK Judges like their independence and could rule that we have already left the EU without a deal. Might be an interesting one to follow if it's true
