The Politics Thread

Vote is delayed, what a surprise.

 

Bad timing from the PM, she needs to delay the vote until 28th March. Then it becomes accept my deal or we have a clean Brexit tomorrow. I don't think there would be a majority for a clean brexit, therefore she would win the vote.

 

She’s just delaying the inevitable. The EU will not grant any further major concessions.

I can easily see this going to the People’s vote. May’s deal will never clear parliament. Grieve’s amendment, which was passed last week, along with the sentiment in parliament, means that no deal is not an option.

I believe MP’s will bottle it. Even though the European court has ruled that they can cancel A50, nobody will want to be accused by the right wing headbangers and assorted old gammon of ‘stealing Brexit’

So, back to the people and then it’s all down to a change in the ‘will of the people’ if Brexit is shot down in flames, as I hope it will be.

 

I don't know why the Dire Leader is so worried about losing a vote tomorrow, given she lost three of them on Tuesday...

 

They are frightened of triggering a vote of no confidence in the government, which would trigger an election. An election means that many MP's will lose their jobs and get thrown off the gravy train.

 

If she thought that she would lose the vote by a handful, she would go ahead, it would give her ammunition to go back to the EU. But losing a vote by 200 will almost certainly cost her her job, and probably trigger an election.

The timing was wrong. The closer she leaves it to 29th March, the more chance she has of winning. If the choice is her deal or clean brexit, most or the MP's will reluctantly support her.

 

She won’t be allowed to do that. MPs, who now have the whip hand thanks to Grieve’s amendment, will force her hand long before then.

 

The obvious thing to do now is to delay the vote until January 20th. The government have to say exactly what they intend to do on the 21st January. If on the 19th they then delay the vote until 28th March, on the 21st Jan they can say that will will have a vote, if it is accepted we leave on those terms, otherwise we will let Article 50 run its course and we will leave without a deal on the 29th.

 

Parliament won’t allow a crash out Brexit. They now have the whip hand and would pull A50 rather than allow that to happen.

 

It wouldnt leave much time. Those who want a clean brexit would be in a strong possition to play for time.

 

Her'es the thing about that: how many actually would? I can say for certain the following Tory MPs would not run the risk of losing their seats at a general election, as they all had at least 15,000 more votes than the second-placed candidate
Stephen Barclay (North East Cambridgeshire)
Richard Benyon (Newbury)
James Brokenshire (Old Bexley and Sidcup)
Bill Cash (Stone)
Upskirting enthusiast Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
Greg Clark (Tunbridge Wells)
Geoffrey Cox (Torridge and West Devon)
David Davies (Haltemprice and Howden)
Nadine Dorries (Mid Bedfordshire)
Death threat inventor Vicky Ford (Chelmsford)
Adam Werritty's friend Liam Fox (North Somerset)
David Gauke (South West Hertfordshire)
Cheryl Gillan (Chesham & Amersham)
Michael Gove (Surrey Heath)
Chris Grayling (Epsom and Ewell)
Philip Hammond (Runnymede and Weybridge)
Matt Hancock (West Suffolk)
Nick Herbert (Arundel and South Downs)
Damien Hinds (East Hampshire)
Jeremy ...Hunt (South West Surrey)
Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove)
Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
Andrea Leadsom (South Northamptonshire)
Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
David Lidington (Aylesbury)
Theresa May (Maidenhead)
Esther McVey (Tatton)
Caroline Nokes (Romsey and Southampton North)
Owen Paterson (North Shropshire)
Priti Patel (Witham)
Claire Perry (Devizes)
Chris Philp (Croydon South)
John Redwood (Wokingham)
Julian Smith (Skipton and Ripon)
Liz Truss (South West Norfolk)
Ed Vaizey (Wantage)
Gavin Williamson (South Staffordshire)
Jeremy Wright (Kenilworth and Southam)

You may notice that, with only a couple of exceptions (Amber Rudd and current Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns being the obvious ones) the vast majority of the current cabinet are on that list, although it's noticeable that Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg aren't

You'll also notice the people of Witham lining up at Beachy Head as they realise the horrific mistake they willingly subjected themselves to...

 

It will never be allowed to happen. Parliament are not stupid enough to allow the Gvt to play an obvious game of brinkmanship with the country’s future.


Neither this Gvt nor Parliament want no deal. It simply will not be allowed to happen. No Gvt or MP would want to account to the people for the economic chaos that would be inflicted on the people.

 

You have far more confidence in Parliament than I do. They are all a bunch of self interested fekwits as far as I am concerned, whichever party they represnt. Although it is unlikely, the unlikely becomes probable in a situation like this.

 

Even the dumbest Turkeys rarely vote for an early Xmas.

 

Unfortunately, we would be better off if Parliament was full of dumb turkeys rather than MP's.

 

When it all comes down to it.....do the Europeans actually want Britain out?

 

No they dont.

 

While there's no doubt plenty of jobsworths working at immigration counters in France, Spain and Ireland relishing the thought of having the Brits queue for hours while planeloads of Germans and Poles happily walk past them, by and large they don't

Although if we could stop sending drunks, blowhards and drunk blowhards to the European Parliament, they'd appreciate it...

 

It's clear May doesn't have a mandate to govern.
She pulls the vote because she can't avoid a crushing and humiliating defeat by 100 or more votes.
How can such a weak government still be in power?

 

Weak, useless opposition and a compliant media?