The SNP will lose some seats because of the split of voters not wanting to remain in the EU and wanting Independence as opposed to wanting out of the EU but not wanting Independence. The SNP have said all along that the issue is Brexit in this election not Independence, that will come later. The Scottish Tories have talked about nothing else but Independence because they know it will split the SNP vote. Plus from winning nearly all Scottish seats it is unlikely to be able to maintain such a high when the issues are so clouded. Once the form of Brexit becomes clear you will see a whole new debate in Scotland. Independence will happen it is just a matter of when. the 16 to 25 age group is 70% pro Independence the over 65's are 60% against Independence. Time will sort this out.
They key is to remain the largest party in Scotland and that I am confident the SNP will do. This will of course not affect Holyrood.
That either says a lot about how flawed the FPTP system is, or just what a bang-up job Gove, Morgan and Greening have done for the education system (see also: a 52/48 vote is apparently the "will of the people")
That's why it's best to wait 9 or 10 years before another vote on Independence. If a second vote straight after Brexit went to the remainers, it would be difficult to justify a third referendum, not in the immediate future anyhow. It's probably best to wait to see how Brexit goes, if the British economy tanks, then there will probably be a majority of Scots who want to pull out of the Union and try to rejoin the EU. If the British economy prospers, then wait until the younger voters become the majority and have another crack then.
It's not an easy decision but there is a very clear mandate to hold a another referendum in the event of a Brexit vote which we have had, a lot will depend on the deal negotiated and whether we stay in the single market or not. If we are out then a referendum in Scotland is almost inevitable.
One thing I've noticed in the past few days is how nasty the right wing sock puppets that try and spam any dissenting voices have gotten. For the past few months it was usually one comment here or there that was easily ignored, but for the past couple of days we've seen not just these accounts absolutely flood the pages and sites of any non-Tory blogger with all manner of doctored images (and they're always the exact same images, which doesn't at all look suspect in any way...) but they've began doxing people. Case in point, one of these sock puppets who has a blank FB profile with no friends (but an awful lot of comments) posted a photo of one person who disagreed with the poison they were spreading, and followed that by saying they know what they look like and would be paying a visit to their place of work by the end of the week. What makes that example so much worse is that I (and presumably a ton of other people) reported this to Facebook, yet in spite of the fact they were clearly threatening them Facebook said it did nothing to violate their guidelines - even though sharing people's photos without their permission and threatening to beat the **** out of them is not just violating their guidelines, it's also illegal.
52/48 is the will of X% of the electorate. If I was Cameron, I would have insisted from the outset that for a refendum of such importance, that the value of X had to be reasonably close to my (100 - "impossible voters" ) concept to legally stand. So X > 80% etc.
I do see the argument that a higher percentage might be required for something important. But I would suggest that forming the Government is rather important, and the current majority (of seats) was achieved with 37% of the voters. They make decisions on behalf of the "rest of us" all the time. Ironically, both sides of the Brexit referendum could claim to have more legitimacy than the Government!
From today's FT please log in to view this image Yet another thing the Tory faithful have been up in arms about the Human Rights Act for years, with the Dire Leader saying she will dismantle it (and has tried to for several years as Home Secretary), it's clear they don't know a bloody thing about it.
Timing is everytjhing. If you guys wait and see how Brexit pans out (it's almost certain that we will have a clean brexit if T May wins today), then if the British economy tanks, the next referendum will be a foregone conclusion. If NS jumps the gun, you might find you get another remain vote. If JC wins today we are going to get a messy Brexit and another referendum could go anyway.
Well then you have to have a French Presidential style primary then a top two head to head vote-off in each constituancy. At least then the winning candidate would have more than 50% of the vote. However, the tories would never allow this because most of the fringe party votes, greens, dim libs and and local independent votes would switch to Labour. OK this time around the UKIP fringe votes are likely to mostly switch to the tories, but UKIP probably won't exist after tomorrow.
Its my belief that we are heading towards a hung parliament tonight with Conservatives a seat or 2 short of an overall majority I assume that they will cling on to power and form a minority government, but that this will result in another election in the autumn, is their a minimum time that has to pass before they can go to the polls again? I also assume that this would result in May departing and the tories looking for another new prime minister who will make an immediate move to the centre ground as Corbyns excellent progress in this election will rightly keep him at the head of the labour party in the short term at least.
Remembering the Monty Python sketch:- https://cdn.theguardian.tv/mainwebsite/2016/04/28/150428ECHRSketchV2_desk.mp4
Yes Please, that would be the best result for me from a selfish point of view, markets don't like uncertainties and a hung Parliament when we must start talking Brexit will destroy the Pound. 1:1 the the US$ or better still, even worse. I get paid in US dollars. If I was religious I would pray for such a result. Plus Donald losing his British Bulldog, or should I say Bullbitch, would probably give the gold price a kick start as well.
Me too, I had dinner at lunch time so I can get 5 hours kip before the sh!te starts to hit the fan. Arthur Negus has held Bristol S, that's not a result, just a bit of gossip. Don't sleep in the subway...... Sorry Dier Hard, that one will be far beyond you if you didn't follow the Otters noses.
Which one, we are blocked here. Hopefully the election night, I've got it on a hard drive here somewhere, I must revisit it later
In what way would the Dire leader deliver a "clean" deal? She's not only repeatedly shown herself to be utterly hapless in negotiations with the EU (and NATO, and the G7, and members of the British public...) while the team she's put together for negotiations has been proven time and again to be skilled at deceiving the public but remarkably useless at negotiating. Parroting "No deal is better than a Kwik-Fit fitter" for months on end will not only lead to a break messier then the one Marie Antoinette's head had from the rest of her body, but the EU won't be the ones bearing the brunt of it - we will.
What have the romans ever done for us. to What have European Human Rights ever done for us in which which it is revealed that actually the British wrote it after the 2nd world war.
