Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%

  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%
  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
GoldhawkRd said:
Agree, and a good point about the 27 states having a veto. Ultimately, I think the whole thing comes down to the big-funder Germany on the EU side, and how badly it sees its industry being affected by with-tariff trade with the UK. Of course, there could be Hungarian-type rebellion from the Eastern States to a Germany-influenced compromise, but if the whole EU project isn't to fail, these objections will be overcome.

The negotiations will presumably last the two years, so we don't know what the German government will look like by the end. If Merkel goes, it will probably be further to the right. Will such a government be more likely to protect its industry so as not to lose ground on an important export market? Perhaps.
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There is an excellent opinion piece in the Times today
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...6?shareToken=85ceb00ca8607c113615e6e95eed69de

There is another very good one on the impact of inflation on people with fixed income, written by an economist and including the line 'macroeconomics is about as useful in predicting things as astrology'. I never knew that in the 50 years running up to WW1 we had essentially zero inflation. And that 4% inflation halves the value of cash every 18 years.
 
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sb_73 said:
There is an excellent opinion piece in the Times today
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...6?shareToken=85ceb00ca8607c113615e6e95eed69de

There is another very good one on the impact of inflation on people with fixed income, written by an economist and including the line 'macroeconomics is about as useful in predicting things as astrology'. I never knew that in the 50 years running up to WW1 we had essentially zero inflation. And that 4% inflation halves the value of cash every 18 years.
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I'll give you my personal experience of fishing and the EU. Back in the 1970's, as a gawky teenager, I was invited to stay in a cottage on the west coast of Scotland, and during a rather wet week, I was taken out on a motorised boat onto a saltwater loch to troll for fish (ok, I was a troll, but just for one day). The fishing was fantastic. We were catching pollack up to 18lbs in weight. We came back with a huge amount in a large wooden box and left most of them on the keyside for the villagers to take away. There was a great sharing of produce among the villagers with no money changing hands which was quite heart-warming.

Forty years on, I went back to the village. There were now no fish in the loch. I talked to a local man who said that in the summer, after work, he'd fish for half an hour each evening and always catch a good number of herring for supper. But no more. Why? Because a Spanish factory ship had come in and taken everything. It scoured the bottom and it took every length of fish going. I've seen 6" hake being sold in Madrid in great numbers - hake should grow to three feet!

Now I know quotas etc have been brought in since, by the EU to restore stocks, but those Spanish and French factory ships are hard to compete with. If I was a trawlerman, making a modest living, I'd be made up by the Brexit vote. There's a market for fish in this country. Waters are getting warmer and some decent species of fish like hake, John Dory etc are coming up from the south into British waters. We Brits have got to learn to eat fish other than cod and haddock.
 
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GoldhawkRd said:
I'll give you my personal experience of fishing and the EU. Back in the 1970's, as a gawky teenager, I was invited to stay in a cottage on the west coast of Scotland, and during a rather wet week, I was taken out on a motorised boat onto a saltwater loch to troll for fish (ok, I was a troll, but just for one day). The fishing was fantastic. We were catching pollack up to 18lbs in weight. We came back with a huge amount in a large wooden box and left most of them on the keyside for the villagers to take away. There was a great sharing of produce among the villagers with no money changing hands which was quite heart-warming.

Forty years on, I went back to the village. There were now no fish in the loch. I talked to a local man who said that in the summer, after work, he'd fish for half an hour each evening and always catch a good number of herring for supper. But no more. Why? Because a Spanish factory ship had come in and taken everything. It scoured the bottom and it took every length of fish going. I've seen 6" hake being sold in Madrid in great numbers - hake should grow to three feet!

Now I know quotas etc have been brought in since, by the EU to restore stocks, but those Spanish and French factory ships are hard to compete with. If I was a trawlerman, making a modest living, I'd be made up by the Brexit vote. There's a market for fish in this country. Waters are getting warmer and some decent species of fish like hake, John Dory etc are coming up from the south into British waters. We Brits have got to learn to eat fish other than cod and haddock.
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I think the comment piece just showed that this is much more complicated than simply walking away. Especially given that 80% of our catch is sold to EU countries. The 'best deal' for us is that we get exclusive rights to our own sea and retain our export market. But that is not the best deal for the EU. Multiply this by all economic sectors and we have one hell of a wrangle.
 
sb_73 said:
I think the comment piece just showed that this is much more complicated than simply walking away. Especially given that 80% of our catch is sold to EU countries. The 'best deal' for us is that we get exclusive rights to our own sea and retain our export market. But that is not the best deal for the EU. Multiply this by all economic sectors and we have one hell of a wrangle.
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There's no doubt the EU, particularly Spain, is a big market for our catches. I don't think that will change greatly if tariffs come in, because as I understand it, tariffs don't add a huge amount to the cost of a product. I do, however, suspect that with the horse trading that will take place between London and Brussels/Berlin, some rather complicated formula will be arrived upon that will avoid tariffs in most sectors, but will be dressed up so that it doesn't look to other EU member states that we've cherry picked
 
durbar2003 said:
Not sure what you mean Toot.
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It wasn't mean to be a comment on diabetes per se durbar (I know some cases are hereditary and not diet related), I was just following on from SB's comment about lifestyle.

Increasingly there's discussions over here that fat people, smokers, alcoholics etc should have to pay surcharges to use the NHS - in that these people through their own lifestyle are an disproportionate drain on resources. Personally that seems a bit like the deserving poor/undeserving poor of the last century to me and unfair, as cases are never cut and dried.
 
TootingExcess said:
It wasn't mean to be a comment on diabetes per se durbar (I know some cases are hereditary and not diet related), I was just following on from SB's comment about lifestyle.

Increasingly there's discussions over here that fat people, smokers, alcoholics etc should have to pay surcharges to use the NHS - in that these people through their own lifestyle are an disproportionate drain on resources. Personally that seems a bit like the deserving poor/undeserving poor of the last century to me and unfair, as cases are never cut and dried.
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Ok, I understand but I was try to say that as a diabetic from 1972 it's not so easy to follow what is the right thing to do when there are no immediate signs that having a chocolate bar is going to make you go blind. It annoys me when people who don't have the problem make comments about those who do . By the way my kidneys failed in 1997 and because I was lucky enough to live in the US I was called by the University of Wisconsin Hospital the same day I was listed, for a Kidney and a Pancreas Transplant.Still workin 19 years later.
 
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GoldhawkRd said:
There's no doubt the EU, particularly Spain, is a big market for our catches. I don't think that will change greatly if tariffs come in, because as I understand it, tariffs don't add a huge amount to the cost of a product. I do, however, suspect that with the horse trading that will take place between London and Brussels/Berlin, some rather complicated formula will be arrived upon that will avoid tariffs in most sectors, but will be dressed up so that it doesn't look to other EU member states that we've cherry picked
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I just looked up EU tariffs and they are, unsurprisingly, insanely complicated depending on which country is exporting and the product. But the average tariff is only 2.3% (though it goes up to 10% on cars and some agricultural products). As the £ has devalued by more than 10% our products would still be cheaper to export to the EU than 6 months ago, which is no incentive for them to avoid tariffs for us. Imports paid for in € obviously end up more expensive. I suspect the worst issue is the reams of paperwork needed to make sure you pay the right tariff for the right product and get the manifest right. Leaving the customs union could be a big thing in terms of increased bureaucracy, something of a surprise in relation to the EU.
 
smokers and alcholics will have paid far more in tax over there lifetime than non smokers or drinkers
unless of course you knew a romanian who knew a smuggler who brought in 50000 cigarettes a week and sold them to you for 2 quid a pack
 
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sb_73 said:
I just looked up EU tariffs and they are, unsurprisingly, insanely complicated depending on which country is exporting and the product. But the average tariff is only 2.3% (though it goes up to 10% on cars and some agricultural products). As the £ has devalued by more than 10% our products would still be cheaper to export to the EU than 6 months ago, which is no incentive for them to avoid tariffs for us. Imports paid for in € obviously end up more expensive. I suspect the worst issue is the reams of paperwork needed to make sure you pay the right tariff for the right product and get the manifest right. Leaving the customs union could be a big thing in terms of increased bureaucracy, something of a surprise in relation to the EU.
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Yes, that's all in line with my understanding. I still don't believe that at the end of the day, the EU will introduce huge bureaucracy into its trading relationship with the UK, just in order to show member states that it gave us a good spanking for leaving. There may be a fee to avoid tariffs which, depending on amount, I would not mind the UK paying. I feel the UK has some obligation to contribute to the poorer European countries, including ex communist, and help them get on their feet, but the best way to do that is trading with them.
 
Very Blairite stuff, the Tories as the party of the NHS, the party of the workers, the party of public servants. Let's ask the NHS, the workers and the public servants in six months time. No policy announcements. Add content. But then again, she's not interested in what people like me think.
 
sb_73 said:
Very Blairite stuff, the Tories as the party of the NHS, the party of the workers, the party of public servants. Let's ask the NHS, the workers and the public servants in six months time. No policy announcements. Add content. But then again, she's not interested in what people like me think.
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And if she does come up with the goods people will always find a way to moan.
 
ELLERS said:
And if she does come up with the goods people will always find a way to moan.
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I will credit her with learning from the referendum and the general trend in politics everywhere. Populism gets you votes, and if you keep it vague no one can hold you to account.

Here's some of the things she could have said, just to put some flesh on the bones:
NHS - write off all hospital and CCG deficits and debts, increase funding to ensure waiting time targets are met for all, retention bonuses to stop staff leaving, total review and massive investment in recruitment and training
Ordinary working people - minimum wage of £10 an hour starting now, end to all zero hours contracts, contracts must include guaranteed minimum weekly hours, holiday and sick pay, new employment legislation to increase statutory redundancy pay (job security a big thing for her, apparently. Is this why no election to give her a mandate?) Reduce retirement age/stop increase in retirement ages. Government underwrites all private pension schemes in deficit.
Public servants - guaranteed wage rises in line with inflation +x%, no further cuts to services and jobs, pensions guarantees.

Just made those up, I don't especially want them. All a bit left wing? She could have at least indicated what she thinks good looks like for the NHS, 'ordinary working people' and public servants. Unless she thinks the reduction of immigration cures all ills.

What do you think she will actually deliver, you seem to be ITK with the Tories?
 
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sb_73 said:
I will credit her with learning from the referendum and the general trend in politics everywhere. Populism gets you votes, and if you keep it vague no one can hold you to account.

Here's some of the things she could have said, just to put some flesh on the bones:
NHS - write off all hospital and CCG deficits and debts, increase funding to ensure waiting time targets are met for all, retention bonuses to stop staff leaving, total review and massive investment in recruitment and training
Ordinary working people - minimum wage of £10 an hour starting now, end to all zero hours contracts, contracts must include guaranteed minimum weekly hours, holiday and sick pay, new employment legislation to increase statutory redundancy pay (job security a big thing for her, apparently. Is this why no election to give her a mandate?) Reduce retirement age/stop increase in retirement ages. Government underwrites all private pension schemes in deficit.
Public servants - guaranteed wage rises in line with inflation +x%, no further cuts to services and jobs, pensions guarantees.

Just made those up, I don't especially want them. All a bit left wing? She could have at least indicated what she thinks good looks like for the NHS, 'ordinary working people' and public servants. Unless she thinks the reduction of immigration cures all ills.

What do you think she will actually deliver, you seem to be ITK with the Tories?
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£10 an hour,write off CCG deficits and debts/increase funding/investment...<laugh> where's the money going to come from? Get real.
If my memory is correct, it was Labour that put us in debt and the Tories are trying to sort the mess out (as always after a Labour government). Not saying they are bringing the debt down as quickly as they wanted to do but at least there are plenty of jobs out there and they have a better plan than a party that leaves a letter in the treasury saying 'the money's all gone'. Which by the way is disgusting behaviour.
May will win the next election by a mile especially if Labour has that muppet comrade Corbyn and his nutty views in charge.
Happy days. :emoticon-0148-yes:
 
ELLERS said:
£10 an hour,write off CCG deficits and debts/increase funding/investment...<laugh> where's the money going to come from? Get real.
If my memory is correct, it was Labour that put us in debt and the Tories are trying to sort the mess out (as always after a Labour government). Not saying they are bringing the debt down as quickly as they wanted to do but at least there are plenty of jobs out there and they have a better plan than a party that leaves a letter in the treasury saying 'the money's all gone'. Which by the way is disgusting behaviour.
May will win the next election by a mile especially if Labour has that muppet comrade Corbyn and his nutty views in charge.
Happy days. :emoticon-0148-yes:
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If you read the post, it was just stuff I made up with no real thought. My question was what do you think she will actually do to show she is the friend of the NHS, 'ordinary working people' and public servants?

The media are portraying her speech as a break from the Cameron/Thatcher small government low tax Tory credo. So my Blair reference was pretty good, but perhaps Ted Heath is a better role model for her. But I think the media are reading too much into it.
 
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If you don't like May and the Tories, you are never going to give her or them any credit.
I am far from being pure Tory but I thought her speech was superb.
 
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